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Forums - Gaming Discussion - History repeating: Xbox One is following PS3′s rocky first year

Damagon said:
Avro1958 said:

I think I am missing something.


Expensive is not the same as overpriced. 

The PS3 was actually underpriced, Sony sold each unit at loss and considerably so . To put things in perspective the cheapest bluray players at the time were $1000. 

$600 was the a ridiculous good deal, but it doesn't change the fact that it's still a lot of money, more than gamers usually can or will afford. And this is really the only reason the 360 managed to beat the PS3. Anyone trying to make parallels with the PS3 and the X1 is just fooling him/herself. 

Yeah ironically, the PS3 had the cheapest Blu Ray drive available. I think when it launched, it would still cost £800+ to get a standalone BR drive. So yeah the console was expensive, but it was alot cheaper than a BR drive. But of course the problem was it was a gaming system, and ultimately BR didnt initially take off as well as DVD did.



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That was Sony PS3. This is Xbox One.



This is an incredibly forced analogy between XB1 and PS3. Why?

- PS3 was way more expensive thn the competition, and STAYED THAT WAY. X360 has always had a price advantage but PS3 was able to turn things around despite that. XB1 was somewhat more expensive but not anymore, so there is no advantage to either now.

- PS3 did not have a record breaking start, its sales were underwhelming at the start but gradually increased. XB1 had a very promising start but the sales have plummeted ever since. Even the exclusives didn't help much in contrast to the exclusives of the PS3 which gave it nice permanent boosts.

- XB1 does not have the global presence & appeal that PS3 has had. XB1 simply is a niche product outside the US & UK. The only reason We're talking about the xbox brand today is because USA alone has (currently) 47% share of the global console market.

- Playstation is a much bigger brand outside US. PS3 had no such opponent but XB1 has. So, regardless of how successful it may be, it will never come close to the success of PS3 (or 360).

In short, MS is very lucky if XB1 can sell HALF AS MUCH AS PS4 (and that's being very optimistic). My latest analysis tells me that XB1 will have the largest market in US (no surprise) with around 42-45% between XB1 & PS4 only  (PS4 having 55-58% of the market). This is a slight boost for XB1 from the 35-45% bracket due to the price decrease (so the estimate hasn't really changed, but just been adjusted for the price decrease scenario).



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

I think it will be alot harder for the Xone to catch up to PS4 compared to PS3 to 360.

However MS do have one advantage over Sony, a great big pile of green cash in the bank.



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Like other users have said, the X1 won't catch up like the PS3 did.. Just the simple fact that the X1 cannot rely on Europe, Japan and other territories like the PS3 did is proof of that.. :-/



                
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Or it might be it is actually following the steps of, you know, the N64 or the GameCube. Have you thought about that one? It's not like hardware revenue is particularly important to MS as it is to Sony or Nintendo...



 

 

 

 

 

given that, realistically, everyone knows that the xbox cannot and will not "beat" the ps4 in lifetime sales.

Can we move on from the topic and talk about games, and enjoy ourselves?



LOL not even close to the same..For one 360 had a year head start....ps3 launch alligned outsold 360 day 1.

Xbox is NOT strong outside of the US, Sony is.....sony had all territories to claw ground back MS does not. There is not going to be all of sudden a dramtatic shift and europe and japan will start buying x1's in droves over ps4.



You seem to forget that what was most important was that Sony was able to deliver games that both proved the technical worthyness of the platform and were interesting to play (wipeout hd, god of war 3 and uncharted 1/2, metal gear solid 4 were the early blockbuster saviors) the games along what was unique media capabilities built into the system (unique back then).

now this time around, Sony may seem like it's sleeping to some, they still shipped about the same number of exclusives as MS and the important thing is, most of their studios are still working on titles that were not announecd yet, we know 2015/16 will be loaded on the PS4... And it has the better version of the third party games.

I really don't know what makes someone think MS has the upper hand here, at best they saved themselves from a disaster, but they still sell a weaker console at the same price as the competition... I don't think 500$ was asking too much for a console, only if it had been more powerful than the PS4 to begin with, they would have plastered the planet with claims of hardware superiority and everyone would have bought in the 1080p 60fps console... 



The PS3 is the PS3 and the Xbox One is the Xbox One. They are their own things. You can absolutely never rely on history to accurately predict how successful one system will sell to another, too many variables involved. Gaming history doesn't repeat itself; a Gen may have similarities with a past Gen but even then it is impossible for that to be a gauge as to how well something will sell.