History repeating: Xbox One is following PS3′s rocky first year

[freedquaker]

This is an incredibly forced analogy between XB1 and PS3. Why?

- PS3 was way more expensive thn the competition, and STAYED THAT WAY. X360 has always had a price advantage but PS3 was able to turn things around despite that. XB1 was somewhat more expensive but not anymore, so there is no advantage to either now.

- PS3 did not have a record breaking start, its sales were underwhelming at the start but gradually increased. XB1 had a very promising start but the sales have plummeted ever since. Even the exclusives didn't help much in contrast to the exclusives of the PS3 which gave it nice permanent boosts.

- XB1 does not have the global presence & appeal that PS3 has had. XB1 simply is a niche product outside the US & UK. The only reason We're talking about the xbox brand today is because USA alone has (currently) 47% share of the global console market.

- Playstation is a much bigger brand outside US. PS3 had no such opponent but XB1 has. So, regardless of how successful it may be, it will never come close to the success of PS3 (or 360).

In short, MS is very lucky if XB1 can sell HALF AS MUCH AS PS4 (and that's being very optimistic). My latest analysis tells me that XB1 will have the largest market in US (no surprise) with around 42-45% between XB1 & PS4 only  (PS4 having 55-58% of the market). This is a slight boost for XB1 from the 35-45% bracket due to the price decrease (so the estimate hasn't really changed, but just been adjusted for the price decrease scenario).