I like exclusives too, but I'm talking about the effect on sales. I think most exclusives this year will be overshadowed by all the 3rd party games coming. 

I agree with everything you said with exception of this.  The PS3 had a similar launch and it is for the same reason as the PS4's.  Most devs that make games that Japan gamers are into are always a generation behind.  Look at the more recent PS3 exclusives if you need proof of this.  Once these devs take their heavy hitting console franchises to the PS4, the gamers will follow.  The only thing that could make the PS4 fail in Japan is if those franchises still being released on the PS3 and the devs behind them suddenly vanish, which I don't see happening anytime soon.

Yes. Its sales have started to slow a bit. Its still doing good but not great.

They just have never been my thing. Maybe one day somebody will make one that gives me more then 5 minutes worth of entertainment but it has not happened yet. I do belive that they are important to have a system because there are people that love them.

The lower sales have to do more with Summer being around the corner than anything.

The PS3 only had two system sellers (GT5 and MGS4) and a plethora of diverse games that appealed to multiple types of gamers. As long as SONY keeps pumping out exclusives it'll be fine. Those exclusives don't necessarily have to be system sellers in their own right though.

I don't think it does. Wii U has the best exclusives, but they don't seem to be generating much interest as system sellers. XB1 doesn't have much either (Sunset Overdrive or Quantum Break are not system sellers). So having exclusive Watchdogs and Destiny content with TLOU and Driveclub should keep it easily in 1st place sales wise.

If Japan has taught us something this early on the generation the answer is yes.

PS4 needs games, it can't sell at vapor, PC indie ports, or pixel counting multplat games.

Console market will suffer all around if the stream of great AAA games is stanched. They basic already lost the casual mid-tier games to tablets and smartphones.

Doesn't seem like they need a system seller. It doesn't seem to matter that most of the same games are available on PS360, people are (surprisingly, to me) happy to spend AU$549 for a console that can play a prettier version of the same games. Then they're also happy to pay to play online on top of that!

There is no way I could play Arkham Knight on console. That would be an injustice after playing the amazing PC versions of the first two. Especially after seeing the recent trailers quality.

OT: Yes, they'll be fine, as long as they announce lots of interesting games for 2015 during E3.

Well I did buy the PS4 for it's exclusives, but not necessarily The Order.