Joelcool7 said:
I like the way your thinking Nintendo WiiU could still recover I don't believe it is a lost cause until next spring. If the WiiU doesn't push 15 million units by the end of the 2013 fiscal year. I am confident Nintendo can make a recovery with WiiU, 8 million units sold is likely the worst case scenerio by the end of the financial year. Why am I so confident Nintendo will recover the WiiU? America!
You point to Pikmin3, Pikmin3 was number 2 on the global charts five weeks after its release. Thats right a WiiU game lasted five weeks within the top 3 which shows the power that Nintendo titles still have. As for Rayman Legends that is a bad example 27K is a terrible and if the game had been an exclusive it could have seen 100k+. Nintendo failed at E3 to show any true super powers for the western market but they did have a few decent releases. You can expect the Zelda bundle to do a million or so units over the holiday season. Nintendo Canada at E3 said that the ZombiU bundle regularily sells out you can expect Nintendo to have a good number of those units on sale during the holiday season as well.
So what do I think is going to save WiiU in North America?
BlackFriday - 1+ million units (Basic Model)
Boxing Day- 1+ million units (Basic Model)
Zelda Bundle 1+ million units
ZombiU Bundle 250k
NintendoLand Bundle 500k
Prediction total sold this holiday in North American domestic market - 3.750,000-5,750,000
Now let me break down why I feel Black Friday and Boxing Day are going to be so massive for Nintendo. One word "Basic" model, Nintendo recalled a lot of their Basic models from major retailers. The Basic models are sitting in Nintendo warehouses and Nintendo isn't just going to dump them in New Mexico. Nintendo is probably going to repackage the Basic consoles or simply send them back to retailers as Door Crashers at a price of say 199.99$ with a game like Lego bundled with it. A 199$ Basic bundle with Lego would fly off of shelves faster than stores could pull them from the back of the store.
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You might want to check out sales in the US for weeks starting the 25th or 26th of December. Because the Wii U selling over a million on boxing day is pure fantasy. That would be more than all consoles and handhelds combined did for the full week that included boxing day in 2010 and 2011. It just isn't a major shopping day in the United States, at least when compared to Black Friday.
Pikmin was number 2 in its fifth week because that was its first week in the US, not because it lasted five weeks in the top three. In fact that was the first and only time it appeared in the top 3. Plus VGC overtracked it by a pretty significant margin.
The basic models that were recalled probably account for a couple hundred thousand at most. I don't know why you think it was all part of a plan to unleash millions of them at prices that aren't financially viable.
15 million by the end of the fiscal year just isn't going to happen. It was one thing earlier this year when people thought Wii U sales might start ramping up over the course of the summer and fall, but now we have the reality of the Wii U selling 20-30k a week after it got Pikmin, Rayman, W101, etc. This is also a pretty small thing compared to everything else, but 250k for the Zombiu bundle when it hasn't even sold that much between bundles and standalone copies in NA is kind of silly.