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Forums - Sales Discussion - LEO-J prediction: IF PS4 launches in OCTOBER, PS4 WILL GO TO #1 BY THE END OF 2013

JoeTheBro on 18 August 2013
Zero999 said:

first, what the other guy was saying was exactly what the topic was about.

second, I got tired of repeating it but what the wii u sold so far in 2013 is nor relevant for the purpose of predictions. it sold like shit because it had almost no releases until recently with pikmin 3. and no, the 2013 lineup is leps and bounds above it's launch lineup. at launch it had 3 exclusives + a bunch of multis that were mostly late ports. in 2013 it has the multis releasing at the correct time and more than double the exclusives. those exclusives range from huge sellers to almost certain million sellers.

So do you have a wii u prediction for end of year? If it's crazy enough I'll make a bet against it.



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Munkeh111 on 18 August 2013

So, while I know Sony is doing everything to right the wrongs of the PS3 launch, but let's try some comparisons

The PS3 sold 1.2m by Christmas, launching mid-November in the USA and Japan. When it launched in Europe, it sold 650k (ish) and that was no supply constrained.

By the end of 2007, the console had sold 8m....

So we all agree that the PS4 has a better launch than the PS3. More games, better price and better supply. BUT, do you really think that Sony can supply more than 5x the number of consoles at launch?

I also don't think that the demand will be enough to sell 6m in 2 months, but I don't think there will be enough supply. For them have to have that much supply, then they would probably have had to start making it in June and we would have seen some leaks before E3 (I reckon)

Basically, no, there won't even be 6-7m PS4s made



Train wreck on 18 August 2013

I have faith in you Leo J. The wii u currently stands 3.61 million as of June 2013, July was the worst month of sales for the Wii U in the US, so the rest of the world fared even worse. Games such as Pikmin 3 have proved to be little in the way of a system seller, multiplatform 3rd party games will be non starters, W101 has a shipment number of 40k in Japan for its launch week, Zelda Wind Waker, one of the major games for the Wii U this season doesn't even have a concrete release date in NA (push to October from Sept is all we know), and its major titles are slated for the last 6 weeks of the year. During Holiday 2003 the 21 million selling gamecube had a shipment of 3.50 million with a price of $149 and about 5 core nintendo titles (and a better 3rd party lineup) including the aforementioned Wind Waker. Does anyone really see Nintendo pushing 3.5 million consoles between October and December?

The very best possible scenario for Nintendo between 7.5-8.25 million total at the end of 2013
My realistic number is between 6.5 million and 7.25million
PS4 with october release worldwide? who knows i can see it reaching 5-6 million based on the west alone if given 10 weeks, if not, ~4



Zero999 on 18 August 2013
JoeTheBro said:
Zero999 said:

first, what the other guy was saying was exactly what the topic was about.

second, I got tired of repeating it but what the wii u sold so far in 2013 is nor relevant for the purpose of predictions. it sold like shit because it had almost no releases until recently with pikmin 3. and no, the 2013 lineup is leps and bounds above it's launch lineup. at launch it had 3 exclusives + a bunch of multis that were mostly late ports. in 2013 it has the multis releasing at the correct time and more than double the exclusives. those exclusives range from huge sellers to almost certain million sellers.

So do you have a wii u prediction for end of year? If it's crazy enough I'll make a bet against it.

I made a prediction a while ago. 10M total sales for wii u by the end of 2013. but I leave a 1M margin of error.



gigantor21 on 18 August 2013

So you think it's going to sell over 100 million units in 2 and a half months? :p

Seriously, though, I think the only thing that can stop the PS4 from leading is supply issues. Don't know about 6-7 million before New Years, though...



Have some time to kill? Read my shitty games blog. http://www.pixlbit.com/blogs/586/gigantor21

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brute on 18 August 2013

I really doubt it, their are some reasons as to why, but the biggest and most important one is that Sony won't even ship that many.



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

eFKac on 18 August 2013
JoeTheBro said:
Zero999 said:

first, what the other guy was saying was exactly what the topic was about.

second, I got tired of repeating it but what the wii u sold so far in 2013 is nor relevant for the purpose of predictions. it sold like shit because it had almost no releases until recently with pikmin 3. and no, the 2013 lineup is leps and bounds above it's launch lineup. at launch it had 3 exclusives + a bunch of multis that were mostly late ports. in 2013 it has the multis releasing at the correct time and more than double the exclusives. those exclusives range from huge sellers to almost certain million sellers.

So do you have a wii u prediction for end of year? If it's crazy enough I'll make a bet against it.

Too late!!! I had already bet against his crazy prediction :D



So it is happening...PS4 preorder.

Greatness Awaits!

Zero999 on 18 August 2013
Train wreck said:

I have faith in you Leo J. The wii u currently stands 3.61 million as of June 2013, July was the worst month of sales for the Wii U in the US, so the rest of the world fared even worse. Games such as Pikmin 3 have proved to be little in the way of a system seller, multiplatform 3rd party games will be non starters, W101 has a shipment number of 40k in Japan for its launch week, Zelda Wind Waker, one of the major games for the Wii U this season doesn't even have a concrete release date in NA (push to October from Sept is all we know), and its major titles are slated for the last 6 weeks of the year. During Holiday 2003 the 21 million selling gamecube had a shipment of 3.50 million with a price of $149 and about 5 core nintendo titles (and a better 3rd party lineup) including the aforementioned Wind Waker. Does anyone really see Nintendo pushing 3.5 million consoles between October and December?

The very best possible scenario for Nintendo between 7.5-8.25 million total at the end of 2013
My realistic number is between 6.5 million and 7.25million
PS3 with october release worldwide? who knows i can see it reaching 5-6 million based on the west alone if given 10 weeks, if not, ~4

bolded: you meant GAME, in singular right? and pikmin proved to be a small system seller in japan. and the results for US sales aren't out yet.

in your post,you're just overly diminishing every good aspect that you can.



brute on 18 August 2013
JoeTheBro said:
Conegamer said:
If it launches in October, late October, it should sell...2.5-3mil come the end of the year, maybe 3.5 max. Saying it will double that is, to me, crazy.

But there you are.


The Wii U launching in mid November managed 2.2 mil. Getting above that shouldn't be too hard.


I'm pretty sure LEo-J meant that it will get above WiiU's total sales that it will have by the end of 2013.



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Train wreck on 18 August 2013
Zero999 said:
JoeTheBro said:
Zero999 said:

first, what the other guy was saying was exactly what the topic was about.

second, I got tired of repeating it but what the wii u sold so far in 2013 is nor relevant for the purpose of predictions. it sold like shit because it had almost no releases until recently with pikmin 3. and no, the 2013 lineup is leps and bounds above it's launch lineup. at launch it had 3 exclusives + a bunch of multis that were mostly late ports. in 2013 it has the multis releasing at the correct time and more than double the exclusives. those exclusives range from huge sellers to almost certain million sellers.

So do you have a wii u prediction for end of year? If it's crazy enough I'll make a bet against it.

I made a prediction a while ago. 10M total sales for wii u by the end of 2013. but I leave a 1M margin of error.

10 million? um the Wii U would have to average ~250k/week from July 1 to December 31 to reach that number, we are almost at september and i dont think the Wii U has sold 250K in that time frame.