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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Are Xbox One and PS4 Doomed to follow in the footsteps of Wii U?

landguy1 said:
People have mentioned that the PS4 and XBone aren't aiming for casuals? Seeing as how M$ announced a machine that did everything under the sun and "it also is a games console", I am sure that they have a plan outside of the core gamer. As for Sony, they went the other route when they announced, because they were pandering to the core gamers when they knew they would be the only ones paying attention 10 months from launch. Since Sony announced, they have made minor comments that said that the PS4 "can do that too" for most of M$'s plans and capabilities. Even with that said, I do think that both of them will have slow sales the first year because of price and the need for the market to get excited for the next gen capabilities. They need to have systems in homes spreading the word through use. That's why I think that the long term for the PS4 may be limited somewhat. The PS4 looks like more of the same with better graphics. The wiiU at least has some type of gimmick(tablet). The XBone is promoting its multimedia and advanced Kinect. Of course we will have to wait and see.


Wii U has a "gimmick" that isnt working. Sony its buisness as usual, they are the jack of all trades, they could always do that too, but they just never really emphasis it. Just tools in their tool box, but focuses on games, which IMO is the way it should be.



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RolStoppable said:

The Wii U needs a price cut. The second half of 2013 release schedule isn't going to pull the system out of the hole it's in.

Home consoles have PCs and tablets to compete with, so it's not like handhelds are the only devices that have extra competition. But I take it from the rest of your post, the troubling world economy doesn't concern you one bit right now. If handhelds should be around $150 to succeed now, then home consoles shouldn't cost more than $300.

Preorder numbers months before release skew towards more dedicated consumers, so the current data shouldn't be taken as a good indication of things to come.

As for your numbers, looks like your confidence in the X1 dwindled over the last couple of hours. You are already putting it into "terrible" territory with "bad" being its norm. I've looked up numbers for spring 2007 and both the 360 and PS3 were hovering in the 60-70k units range. A more expensive Xbox has good chances to hit Wii U lows, but even twice the rate of Wii U sales would still be terrible. Also, it would certainly be more troubling for the industry, because they are banking on Sony's and Microsoft's consoles. NPD is going to be fun next year.


It does need a pricecut now, yes. I was more saying I dont think it would require one if 1st party and 3rd party support had been okay since launch.

Id be willing to argue tablets have more of an impact on handhelds, along with smartphones. They play the same games and people can/do take them out and about. PCs being "competition" is nothing different to what we have had for Years on end. Granted, its a bit different now with Steam but Steam didnt hurt the PS3 or the 360. Id disagree on the $300 for consoles too, simply because we have proof a console can sell Millions above the $300 price point thanks to the PS3 selling over 23 Million units pre-Slim/Cut (More than the Gamecube sold lifetime), granted the majority of sales came after it dropped to $299, but there is clearly a sizable market that will dip in at over $300.

I wouldnt say my confidence dwindled, because Ive never really been confident in the One at all. Yeah, I did say "nothing terrible", but lets be honest - "Terrible" is vague at best. All I was saying was that we wouldnt see the console hit Wii U lows. I fully expect it to range between 50-80k (like you said early PS360 sales), but not quite drop to Wii U level 20-30k Weeks or even 160k Quarters. Xbox as a brand is too popular in America and Microsoft know how to advertise to Americans.

NPD next Year will be a nightmare, simply because people expect the next gen consoles to take off almost immediately. We know that wont happen, we know things will be average at best (Or even poor when comparing to Wii's early performance). After 12 Months though, thats when we will see the generation really get going when support starts to shift fully towards PS4, One and even Wii U.

Ill go against what I said and have a little prediction, just for fun.

PS3 sold under 8 Million units in 2007, I expect the PS4 to sell over 10 Million units in 2014.
Xbox 360 sold 6.8 Million units in 2006, I expect the One to sell about this number in 2014.



                            

RolStoppable said:
Carl2291 said:

Neither did the PS3, for about 18 Months, yet it never did nearly as bad as the Wii U. Poor support is still support and its far, far better than going weeks on end with nothing releasing.

Support will be strong enough to keep sales at a reasonable level. Nothing brilliant, nothing terrible.

I think it will also help the PS4 at least, that they arent forcing a new peripheral out - Theyre going for the same audience. No gimmicks. No confusion. Just games (with the obvious extras).

I think one of the main problems with Wii U, is that it doesnt appeal to the Wii audience. It doesnt have the killer Wii Sports app. It doesnt have the ease of use that Wii had. It isnt affordable, like Wii. The PS4 will/does appeal to the PS audience. The One will/does appeal to the Xbox audience (though not as much).

The economic conditions have changed drastically, so anytime you extrapolate from previous generations to the eighth one without taking the current world economy into account, you will end up being horribly wrong.

You have seen the Vita which was supposed to do well. It was priced similarly to the PSP, but launched with a much better lineup. About 1.5 years back (right around the Vita's launch in America and Europe) we had a discussion where you were insisting that all the PSV needed was a reasonable amount of games, because everything else was right. That was in response to my claims that the handheld would struggle badly. I then told you that the PSV will definitely need a price cut, because by May 2012 it will have fallen below 100k units in weekly worldwide sales. What happened is that the PSV got there in April, a month before my estimate.

Now you can come up with any excuses you like (smartphones etc.), but there is always Japan where the PSP was popular throughout its entire life. The PSV already got its price cut to 20,000 yen and last week it didn't even get past the 20k mark on the back of a new software release that pushed 80k units. The PSP didn't break a sweat to have a baseline of 30k units. The PSV goes for the same audience as the PSP, but that audience isn't really getting on board just yet. One deciding factor in this is that the PSP was still supplied with plenty of games well into the eighth generation and that is exactly what we can expect for the PS3 and 360 as well. Why go for an expensive upgrade to play the same exact games (or rather fewer games, because not all third parties will be present on the new consoles immediately)? The intial PS4 and X1 exclusives don't scream "killer app", so there will be a widespread lack of incentives for consumers to buy into the eighth generation at first, resulting in disappointing sales for next gen hardware.

As for price specifically, $500 was insane in 2006, so it's even more bonkers in 2013. The X1 is destined to struggle based on price alone. $400 for the PS4 is also a hefty amount, but right now many are under the illusion that it is a great price for two reasons: The PS3 was $600 and the X1 is $500. But just because there is something worse doesn't make something else good. And when you hear news like "40% of the youth in Spain is unemployed" (the age demographic that the PS4 is supposed to sell to intially), then even traditional strongholds of Sony won't help them much. It is possible that a $400 PS4 will do worse than the $600 PS3 because of the current economic conditions.

Lastly, to put some numbers out there, I say that both the X1 and PS4 will go below 100k units in weekly worldwide sales in 2014. For the X1 I am more daring and say that it will go below 50k, because the system has too much going against it, based on the currently available information. Now tell me at which point you would consider sales to be terrible.


That´s a very grim picture you´re describing.

8th generation = worst generation the industry will experience?



I notice the Sly Cooper pin on his jacket, so I'm glad their still keeping up with that easter egg. I hope ( doubt it ) but I hope Sly make a cameo in this game.... maybe a easter egg leaking Sly 5 :3



Don’t follow the hype, follow the games

— 

Here a little quote I want for those to keep memorize in your head for this coming next gen.                            

 By: Suke

oniyide said:
landguy1 said:
People have mentioned that the PS4 and XBone aren't aiming for casuals? Seeing as how M$ announced a machine that did everything under the sun and "it also is a games console", I am sure that they have a plan outside of the core gamer. As for Sony, they went the other route when they announced, because they were pandering to the core gamers when they knew they would be the only ones paying attention 10 months from launch. Since Sony announced, they have made minor comments that said that the PS4 "can do that too" for most of M$'s plans and capabilities. Even with that said, I do think that both of them will have slow sales the first year because of price and the need for the market to get excited for the next gen capabilities. They need to have systems in homes spreading the word through use. That's why I think that the long term for the PS4 may be limited somewhat. The PS4 looks like more of the same with better graphics. The wiiU at least has some type of gimmick(tablet). The XBone is promoting its multimedia and advanced Kinect. Of course we will have to wait and see.


Wii U has a "gimmick" that isnt working. Sony its buisness as usual, they are the jack of all trades, they could always do that too, but they just never really emphasis it. Just tools in their tool box, but focuses on games, which IMO is the way it should be.

I basically agree with you, i didn't hope to imply that the wiiU gimmick was working, only that it has one.  For just about anybody that would spend time on this website, they would be considered core gamers or game enthusiasts at the least.  With them, the PS4 will hit the right spot by default =GAMES.  I think that's where M$ differs, they plan to or are hopring to get the core gamer with the games and broaden the reach into casuals with the other capabilities of the XBone.  Unfortunatley, they pissed off the core and probably overpriced themselves for the casuals...



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chapset said:
The ps3 was 600$ at launch yet it never did sub 50k a week (and that was without Europe the first few months), the xbox 360 shared games with the ps2 and it didn't do as bad has the wii U. Neither the X1 or the PS4 will struggle to get third party games because they didn't release a console for themselves only like Nintendo did, they actually listen to the demands of the third party devs. The ps4 and X1 are using a controller scheme that his proven, no gimmick, Nintendo got lucky with the wii but their luck ran out with the wii U. I don't know why so many Nintendo fans hope for the industry to collapse but last year the gaming industry generate record breaking numbers  and it's only getting bigger not weaker.

 

You make it sounds as if I was suggesting the Wii U is not doing horrible.  It is, at the very least, doing horrible compared to where Nintendo wanted it to be.  I'm also not stating that the other two systems will face similar sales.  I HOPE they don't.  But the economy is worse off now then it was then.

I agree on the 3rd party games being readily available on X1 and PS4.  I also think lack of good 3rd party support is part of Nintendo's problem.  However, I ALSO think that many of those titles being available on the current gen 360 and PS3 will be a cause for many to wait to buy a PS4 or X1.  As you said, the industry is growing in terms of software.  The best way to push a large amount of software is to release those titles on a HUGE installed base.

Technically, the Wii U controller is a proven dual analog control scheme, just with the screen in the middle.

I am a gaming fan, which includes me being a Nintendo fan.  I own all 3 systems, do you?  Just got done playing TLoU, currently playing some BLOPS2 (on 360), and don't even have my Wii hooked up to my TV anymore.  Still plan to buy a Wii U, and still want to see Nintendo do better.  Not sure why that is hard for people to grasp.  Debating wether I need to buy a PS4 right away, since most of the games will be available on current gen.  This way, I can wait, save money on the consoles, and have a better backlog.  Same approach I am using with the Wii U.



I don't think either console will sell as bad as the Wii U was, but if one does, then it would only be one.



landguy1 said:
oniyide said:
landguy1 said:
People have mentioned that the PS4 and XBone aren't aiming for casuals? Seeing as how M$ announced a machine that did everything under the sun and "it also is a games console", I am sure that they have a plan outside of the core gamer. As for Sony, they went the other route when they announced, because they were pandering to the core gamers when they knew they would be the only ones paying attention 10 months from launch. Since Sony announced, they have made minor comments that said that the PS4 "can do that too" for most of M$'s plans and capabilities. Even with that said, I do think that both of them will have slow sales the first year because of price and the need for the market to get excited for the next gen capabilities. They need to have systems in homes spreading the word through use. That's why I think that the long term for the PS4 may be limited somewhat. The PS4 looks like more of the same with better graphics. The wiiU at least has some type of gimmick(tablet). The XBone is promoting its multimedia and advanced Kinect. Of course we will have to wait and see.


Wii U has a "gimmick" that isnt working. Sony its buisness as usual, they are the jack of all trades, they could always do that too, but they just never really emphasis it. Just tools in their tool box, but focuses on games, which IMO is the way it should be.

I basically agree with you, i didn't hope to imply that the wiiU gimmick was working, only that it has one.  For just about anybody that would spend time on this website, they would be considered core gamers or game enthusiasts at the least.  With them, the PS4 will hit the right spot by default =GAMES.  I think that's where M$ differs, they plan to or are hopring to get the core gamer with the games and broaden the reach into casuals with the other capabilities of the XBone.  Unfortunatley, they pissed off the core and probably overpriced themselves for the casuals...


agreed, i would even go so far as to say that the features Xone has that are tryng to get the casuals wont work as most of those can be done with various devices and cheaper ones that have been out for years. Kinect notwithstanding.



teigaga said:
Ouroboros24 said:

The doom and gloom seems to be focused squarely on Wii U.  Not even Nintendo as a whole since they have been selling the most console with the 3ds and sales of their software has also been fantastic, through again the 3ds.  What I'm wondering is how will the Xbox one and ps4 do after the initial release sometime this holiday season?

I'll be first to say it, the PS4 and XBox one are magnificent devices, powerful, beautiful and even a little bit intimidating.  Great stuff, but who is going to buy it.  I'm not.  I want to, don't get me wrong.  I have the xbox 360 and ps3 to tide me over, plus i'm never impressed by any launch game so I'll be trying to catch both about a year and a half later.  If I had the money, I would scoop both up day 1, but I don't, so sad for me.

My question is, are the xbox one and PS4 going to suffer the same thing Wii U is going through now?  There are many factors that may just have it play that way.  For one, the two systems are very identical.  It's another red ocean for both consoles.  Fans will either opt for one and not get both.  The starting price is over $400.  Remember the PS3 and Xbox 360 slow slumps in 2007?  COD: Ghosts will be on the ps3 and xbox, no need to get it on PS4 or xbone.  Software sells consoles, they both have to have something killer if they want to start pumping those machines to the masses.

What do you think?  Is the Wii U a harbinger of what's to come for these two arriving consoles? 


Fortunately for sony and microsoft, Plenty of other people do.

The systems will have brilliant launch line ups. whether you're a 360 or ps3 owner, both the ps4/Xbox 1 have better fall line ups then the current gen systems.
 Xbox 360: Fable anniversery / Xbox One: Forza 5, Dead Rising 3, Ryse, Killer Instinct
 PS3: Ratchet and Clank, GT6 / PS4: Killzone Shadowfall, Driveclub, Knack, Planetside2, Warframe.

Unless you're a Grand Turismo fiend, next gen clearly win.

Bar batman and GT6, the most anticipated holiday titles are coming to the next gen platformers. If you can afford it I don't know why you would choose to play Battlefield 4, Watchdogs and Ac4 on ps3/360 as opposed to PS4/X1.

Also I think a lot of people forget how bad the Wii U's launch window was. It had a draught lasting around 5 months which was actually a record. A new system with garunteed support and a bright future doesn't need alot to sell, what teh sp4/X1 have lined up is more then enough. 

 


Guaranteed support?  Looking down the road 4 months does not equal guaranteed support.  For all we know the consoles themselves might not arrive until 2014.



ninjablade said:
xbone and ps4 will out sell the wiiu by the end of 2013, as long as they have enough supply.

both of them together won't get even close to outselling 2013 numbers for wii u.