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Are Xbox One and PS4 Doomed to follow in the footsteps of Wii U?

Forums - Gaming Discussion - Are Xbox One and PS4 Doomed to follow in the footsteps of Wii U?

I don´t think it is the same situation. The shock for the WiiU potential consumers was to find out that it was as powerful and capable as the PS3 and Xbox360.
When people jump generations of consoles, they want to see real improvment, like PS1 - PS2 - PS3, or NES-SNES-N64, Master System - Mega Drive - Saturn...

When the better games of your new system are exact copies of games from 7 year consoles, people don´t want them (See Mass Effect 3, AC3 and Batman on WiiU)

Imagine if the Super Nes came out and the games were CALIFORNIA GAMES, SHINING FORCE and PSICHO FOX, exact copies of the Master System versions, pixel by pixel. WHO WOULD BUY IT?



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

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Train wreck said:

You do know that economic pendulum does swing.  I guess you have not been keeping up with US stock market levels, US unemployment, weekly job claims, monthly car sales, different regions manufacturing, they all are pointing to signs of continuing stabilization/strength in the US economy.  Even if you believe the numbers are fed induced, you can see clear improvement from the depths of 2009.  Different regions in Europe and Asia are also starting to see pickup in economic activity also.  As long as the wealth effect comes in to play, discretionary spending will rise. 

And Wii U current sales to me as saying that the core gamer, the only who are willing to plop down 400 for a new game systems are doing just that, preording the systems and waiting.  The expensive part only comes for the previous Wii  owner, who are faced with higher console price, higher accessories price, price of DLC, higher priced software (most wii games retailed for $39.99 (19.99 for most of the shovelware) now with most jumping to 60) and no resemblance to the console they had before (patches, system updates, online yet unfulfilling).

The 20,000 Yen price for the Vita is still expensive to its main competitor and to its own predecessor (which the Vita is still competing with).  Even so the console is still experiencing y/y growth, as it should with a price cut.  You are really tallying weekly vita sales based on C-level games; get that shit out of here.  It’s more proof that if the Vita can land B level and A level type games, the system will respond accordingly, even with the above caveats hindering its sales…and the market leader is only had week /week sales decline on a game that opened on 250k sales in the same time period.

The 400 dollar price point for the PS4 and soon to be 400 dollar price point for the Xbox are comparable to many big ticket discretionary items that have since come out from 2006, namely tablets, high end smart phones and gaming graphics cards.  With many retailers and the manufactures themselves saying that demand for these systems is high, it looks like they have ready buyers for launch.  And with both systems having already better 3rd party support than the current Wii U, both systems are going to experience better stabilization.

And lastly you are going to be wrong once again on your stance of current gen games ability to hinder the xbox and ps4 sales.  I’m sure if BenV was still here, he would tell you that is nonsense.

 

Your defense for the Vita made me chuckle. After all, you are the guy who made a thread to point out that EA's Wii U software sales were worse than Vita's.

By the way, you forgot your obligatory "I am sure that Sony and Microsoft will be fine." line in this post, but I guess it was redundant, because the context is already there.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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I think all 8th gen consoles are going to be faced with decline. I think many cheerleaders for these console companies will be in for an unpleasant surprise.

Will PS4 sell better than PS3? (Which wasn't selling well at all when launched, and the economy wasn't in the toilet yet)

Will XB1 sell better than 360? At a higher price of entry during an economy in the toilet.

We all see how abysmal Wii U is selling compared to..well every console ever lol. Its pathetic actually.

But we can't ignore economic factors. Also imagine how ugly gen 7 would have been without breakaway hits like DS and Wii. There will be no Wii/DS this gen, even the 3DS is selling poorly outside of Japan.

In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king. Even if that king has catarax or nearsightedness I suppose.



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

Both of them will have pretty disappointing post launches. Mostly due to the fact that a lot of people do not see the need for a new console with the current strong support of the PS360, and for the most part no killer apps for the X1 and PS4. It probably won't be as bad as the Wii U but it won't be great either.



g911turbo said:
chapset said:
nope, they are not betting on the casual who are long gone (probably dead) or on some sort of gimmick as their main selling point and the pre-orders are at record high plus they have plenty of games for the first year

I'm guessing what you wrote is sarcasm based on the perenthesis.  

 

I'm sure that Microsoft and Sony are NOT looking at the Wii U and saying "hell yeah!"  That fact that it is performing VERY poorly is probably some reason for concern in their boardrooms, even if just for economic reasons.  400 and 500 dollars is still a lot of money.

Also, if by casuals you mean someone not used to using dual analog standard controllers, so be it.  They are looking for alternate control means (why the wii was successful).  That's a lot of people.  And just because they are playing Candy Crush today doesn't mean they won't be playing Mario U tomorrow.

Preorders are ALWAYS high.  Even the Wii U was.  Lots of returns due to no resale market.  I have 5+ Xones and PS4s on preorder.  Case in point.

Finally, many of those "plenty of games" are going to be available on 360/ps4. 

 

That being said, I don't think either of the unreleased systems is doomed.  I just think their sucess is uncertain.

The ps3 was 600$ at launch yet it never did sub 50k a week (and that was without Europe the first few months), the xbox 360 shared games with the ps2 and it didn't do as bad has the wii U. Neither the X1 or the PS4 will struggle to get third party games because they didn't release a console for themselves only like Nintendo did, they actually listen to the demands of the third party devs. The ps4 and X1 are using a controller scheme that his proven, no gimmick, Nintendo got lucky with the wii but their luck ran out with the wii U. I don't know why so many Nintendo fans hope for the industry to collapse but last year the gaming industry generate record breaking numbers  and it's only getting bigger not weaker.



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

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Unlikely. They'll have amazing third party support and the PS360 audience is craving new consoles. They might not break records but they'll sell well enough.



RolStoppable said:
 

Your defense for the Vita made me chuckle. After all, you are the guy who made a thread to point out that EA's Wii U software sales were worse than Vita's.

By the way, you forgot your obligatory "I am sure that Sony and Microsoft will be fine." line in this post, but I guess it was redundant, because the context is already there.

I understand that you are quite upset that despite Vita's atrocious numbers it will continue to get support from 3rd parties (the lesser ones first like Atlus but the major ones will be around once their exclusive contracts ends with nintendo) and Sony themselves once the PS4 is on its feet... and the same cannot be said for the Wii U.  There is nothing for me to defend on the Vita,  Japanese sales rising, western sales not due to no supprot from 3rd parties/Sony's major studios/ proprietary/high price/...that makes perfect sense to me.  I see vita situation only improving in Japan, the only region where it counts at this point.  Most companies who attempt both a handheld and console  stragedy have one fail and the other succeed...even nintendo.  so hopefully Sony (and to a certain extent Microsoft) will learn from from Nintendo bad two false starts and concentrate on what they do best.



landguy1 said:
People have mentioned that the PS4 and XBone aren't aiming for casuals? Seeing as how M$ announced a machine that did everything under the sun and "it also is a games console", I am sure that they have a plan outside of the core gamer. As for Sony, they went the other route when they announced, because they were pandering to the core gamers when they knew they would be the only ones paying attention 10 months from launch. Since Sony announced, they have made minor comments that said that the PS4 "can do that too" for most of M$'s plans and capabilities. Even with that said, I do think that both of them will have slow sales the first year because of price and the need for the market to get excited for the next gen capabilities. They need to have systems in homes spreading the word through use. That's why I think that the long term for the PS4 may be limited somewhat. The PS4 looks like more of the same with better graphics. The wiiU at least has some type of gimmick(tablet). The XBone is promoting its multimedia and advanced Kinect. Of course we will have to wait and see.


Wii U has a "gimmick" that isnt working. Sony its buisness as usual, they are the jack of all trades, they could always do that too, but they just never really emphasis it. Just tools in their tool box, but focuses on games, which IMO is the way it should be.



RolStoppable said:

The Wii U needs a price cut. The second half of 2013 release schedule isn't going to pull the system out of the hole it's in.

Home consoles have PCs and tablets to compete with, so it's not like handhelds are the only devices that have extra competition. But I take it from the rest of your post, the troubling world economy doesn't concern you one bit right now. If handhelds should be around $150 to succeed now, then home consoles shouldn't cost more than $300.

Preorder numbers months before release skew towards more dedicated consumers, so the current data shouldn't be taken as a good indication of things to come.

As for your numbers, looks like your confidence in the X1 dwindled over the last couple of hours. You are already putting it into "terrible" territory with "bad" being its norm. I've looked up numbers for spring 2007 and both the 360 and PS3 were hovering in the 60-70k units range. A more expensive Xbox has good chances to hit Wii U lows, but even twice the rate of Wii U sales would still be terrible. Also, it would certainly be more troubling for the industry, because they are banking on Sony's and Microsoft's consoles. NPD is going to be fun next year.


It does need a pricecut now, yes. I was more saying I dont think it would require one if 1st party and 3rd party support had been okay since launch.

Id be willing to argue tablets have more of an impact on handhelds, along with smartphones. They play the same games and people can/do take them out and about. PCs being "competition" is nothing different to what we have had for Years on end. Granted, its a bit different now with Steam but Steam didnt hurt the PS3 or the 360. Id disagree on the $300 for consoles too, simply because we have proof a console can sell Millions above the $300 price point thanks to the PS3 selling over 23 Million units pre-Slim/Cut (More than the Gamecube sold lifetime), granted the majority of sales came after it dropped to $299, but there is clearly a sizable market that will dip in at over $300.

I wouldnt say my confidence dwindled, because Ive never really been confident in the One at all. Yeah, I did say "nothing terrible", but lets be honest - "Terrible" is vague at best. All I was saying was that we wouldnt see the console hit Wii U lows. I fully expect it to range between 50-80k (like you said early PS360 sales), but not quite drop to Wii U level 20-30k Weeks or even 160k Quarters. Xbox as a brand is too popular in America and Microsoft know how to advertise to Americans.

NPD next Year will be a nightmare, simply because people expect the next gen consoles to take off almost immediately. We know that wont happen, we know things will be average at best (Or even poor when comparing to Wii's early performance). After 12 Months though, thats when we will see the generation really get going when support starts to shift fully towards PS4, One and even Wii U.

Ill go against what I said and have a little prediction, just for fun.

PS3 sold under 8 Million units in 2007, I expect the PS4 to sell over 10 Million units in 2014.
Xbox 360 sold 6.8 Million units in 2006, I expect the One to sell about this number in 2014.



RolStoppable said:
Carl2291 said:

Neither did the PS3, for about 18 Months, yet it never did nearly as bad as the Wii U. Poor support is still support and its far, far better than going weeks on end with nothing releasing.

Support will be strong enough to keep sales at a reasonable level. Nothing brilliant, nothing terrible.

I think it will also help the PS4 at least, that they arent forcing a new peripheral out - Theyre going for the same audience. No gimmicks. No confusion. Just games (with the obvious extras).

I think one of the main problems with Wii U, is that it doesnt appeal to the Wii audience. It doesnt have the killer Wii Sports app. It doesnt have the ease of use that Wii had. It isnt affordable, like Wii. The PS4 will/does appeal to the PS audience. The One will/does appeal to the Xbox audience (though not as much).

The economic conditions have changed drastically, so anytime you extrapolate from previous generations to the eighth one without taking the current world economy into account, you will end up being horribly wrong.

You have seen the Vita which was supposed to do well. It was priced similarly to the PSP, but launched with a much better lineup. About 1.5 years back (right around the Vita's launch in America and Europe) we had a discussion where you were insisting that all the PSV needed was a reasonable amount of games, because everything else was right. That was in response to my claims that the handheld would struggle badly. I then told you that the PSV will definitely need a price cut, because by May 2012 it will have fallen below 100k units in weekly worldwide sales. What happened is that the PSV got there in April, a month before my estimate.

Now you can come up with any excuses you like (smartphones etc.), but there is always Japan where the PSP was popular throughout its entire life. The PSV already got its price cut to 20,000 yen and last week it didn't even get past the 20k mark on the back of a new software release that pushed 80k units. The PSP didn't break a sweat to have a baseline of 30k units. The PSV goes for the same audience as the PSP, but that audience isn't really getting on board just yet. One deciding factor in this is that the PSP was still supplied with plenty of games well into the eighth generation and that is exactly what we can expect for the PS3 and 360 as well. Why go for an expensive upgrade to play the same exact games (or rather fewer games, because not all third parties will be present on the new consoles immediately)? The intial PS4 and X1 exclusives don't scream "killer app", so there will be a widespread lack of incentives for consumers to buy into the eighth generation at first, resulting in disappointing sales for next gen hardware.

As for price specifically, $500 was insane in 2006, so it's even more bonkers in 2013. The X1 is destined to struggle based on price alone. $400 for the PS4 is also a hefty amount, but right now many are under the illusion that it is a great price for two reasons: The PS3 was $600 and the X1 is $500. But just because there is something worse doesn't make something else good. And when you hear news like "40% of the youth in Spain is unemployed" (the age demographic that the PS4 is supposed to sell to intially), then even traditional strongholds of Sony won't help them much. It is possible that a $400 PS4 will do worse than the $600 PS3 because of the current economic conditions.

Lastly, to put some numbers out there, I say that both the X1 and PS4 will go below 100k units in weekly worldwide sales in 2014. For the X1 I am more daring and say that it will go below 50k, because the system has too much going against it, based on the currently available information. Now tell me at which point you would consider sales to be terrible.


That´s a very grim picture you´re describing.

8th generation = worst generation the industry will experience?