I don't think there is anything Nintendo could do to mess it up. I honestly don't see Vita hitting 20 million units as it stands right now, and 3DS should top 40 before too long with MH, Pokemon and Zelda coming. Sony may have some super secret amazing strategy that would push Vita into success and passed 3DS, but it wouldn't be because of Nintendo messing it up. They have done too much right to mess it up now.

when are they due for a 3ds update?

like ds lite to dsi?

i know the first update is after 18 months.... but the third one is usually goes after how many months after the first update?

Nope

short answer: no
long answer: not worth the time

alt answer: if nintendo decided to cancel pokemon for 3ds and to bring the game to vita, then vita would have a chance.

Haha, lol

Unless they piss off the Japanese audience and all developers abandon it, I don't see that happening.

The PSP never really caught up outside of Japan and even that was only after several years and during a period developers figured it could be used for PS2 ports which is cheaper then trying to develop HD games. Basically, the entire shift in the Japanese industry can be traced back to them realizing that developing on the PSP was more cost effective and later the 3DS and Vita. The issue with the Vita however is that it doesn't have the absolute power advantage that the PSP had over the DS, nor the set of exclusive money makers and price that the 3DS has, making it more for those wanting a high end gadget rather then a game system.

No, no they could not

Only if they stop making it.

I'd hate to sound like a broken record, but they would indeed need to completely kill of production of the console in order for the Vita to have some type of "overtaking."

maybe if Mario went to vita and they stopped making the 3DS?