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Locked: My SMG prediction is looking grim...

Forums - Sales Discussion - My SMG prediction is looking grim...

Mummelmann said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Mummel, Have you seen the light on Wii fit as well, have you understood my prediction?

Do I think it will pass 7 million? Well, yes. Do I think it will ever come close to 70 million; hell no! I mostly don't understand anything you say to be honest, and I'm far from the only one...

@Claude; Nintendo are really more rehashers than the others, simply by betting all their money on Mario after 24 years, so I don't call that fresh thinking or innovation. Yes, both the 360 and the PS3 are rehashes, but at least they're making technological leaps in the process, which to me is important. In my honest opinion; this gen is the prime reason I'm becoming more and more of a PC gamer, I don't fancy any of the current consoles to the extent that I have done before. Nintendo's attempts at new IP's have had very dissapointing results, whereas both the 360 and the PS3 have had a few hits with brand new franchises (Assassin's Creed, Bioshock, Gears of War and Resistance spring to mind), and the attach rates of these games far surpass that of Zack & Wicki for instance, and that tells me one thing; Nintendo buyers don't mind getting the same games in new form instead of something new, so Nintendo won't even make an effort to bring any. And, as people will see after this year, almost none of the 3rd parties will take the Wii and it's control scheme seriously, they'll simply use the platform to earn quick money on with low quality titles, and that is a very sad thought to me as a longtime Nintendo fan!


 First of all, Mummelmann, kudos not for the confession, but to withstand what seems to be somewhat an assault on your opinions, at times bordering on an assault on you.

Now that my "I've come not to praise Caesar, but to bury him" line is out of the way, I'll continue the assault.  ;)  But only on your opinion, with a slight twisting of your words.

 "almost none of the 3rd parties will take the Wii and its control scheme seriously, they'll simply use the platform to earn quick money on with low quality titles,"

Fixed by the way.  Pet peeve of mine, the "its",

I must agree with that statement.  But to carry it on farther, that means since quick money can be made, a lot, really a lot, of 3rd party games will be made.  PS2 had  2,054 and counting made for it.  While I don't think VG Chartz has precise PS2 game sales, it shows only 10% doing over 1M in sales (205 games), another 20% (410 games, hmmm... did ioi make up these numbers to hit it so exactly?) had sales above 100k.  Another 5% (113) sold 50k, which at $20 a pop = $1M in sales.

The point being, even if 'almost none' of the 3rd parties take seriously the controls and the power that the Wii does have, there is that 10% that will.  If nothing else, just the pride of workmanship to put out a somewhat decent product.  Which, if the game catches the Wii population's fancy, could make a ton of money as the Wii sales keep going up.

Lastly, I don't begrudge other groups in having their own genre of games, different than a lot of the more mainstream ones gamers might be used to.  Nintendogs for the DS is the Wii Sport game of that handheld, in my opinion.  It showed like no other game before it, what the  DS could do.  Do I play it?  Hell, no.  But I can understand why females, mostly young, but some older ones as well, play it.  And bought a lot of them.  I think that a similar franchise like Wii Sports, Nintendogs, Tetris is out there, still waiting to be discovered for the Wii.  Hopefully it will surprise us all.

 

 



Torturing the numbers.  Hear them scream.

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Good post Renar, and good points. I think we see eye to eye in most matters, because I also believe that a good 10% of the 3rd party games might be worthwhile enterprises.
And, there really were some casual titles already in the NES days that sold fairly well, like Tetris and Dr. Mario, and even my mother and some of her friends played those.
They even played Super Mario Bros and SMB 3 and loved it, but their kind has since vanished, seemingly put off by the advanced and hardcore gameplay of modern day games.
Here in Norway, this group, or these groups counting all nongamer casuals, don't play any games regardless of platform today, including the Wii.
Fact is; here in Norway it is generally believed by everyone outside of gaming society that Nintendo stopped making consoles after the N64.
Too me, it's fine to try to reel in and cater to these customers as a sideproject, but I am very disappointed in Nintendo for aiming primarily at these players with their new console.
Its not that they don't deserve to play games (like they used to), but I feel it is just wrong to let this audience be the one to decide the future of gaming as a whole. And my fear is that this will happen sooner or later!

Well, to sum up; I am mostly a PC gamer, but I have owned and still own several consoles. This generation, however, has given me aches and troubles over choosing what to do! I wanted the PS3 all along, but then people started shouting "doom" and that all major support would shift over to Nintendo. Which was a shame I thought, since the two best consoles I've owned are both Sony's. I then decided to try to like the Wii, but it just wouldn't sit with me, I completely disagree with their bussiness model and their decision to utilize old technology, and I hate (d) the image of playing mundane genre games with a Wiimote in my hand. The 360 is not an option at all for me, between hardware failure and all those games it shares with either PC, PS3 or both, I see no reason to get it.
All this gives me a headache, and I'm left as a sad gamer in a time we should rejoice over a burgeoning game market.
So, here I am, playing games from 1991 on my PC in DosBox wailing over the unsettling (to me) situation on the console market, hoping I'll still get to play my favourite games with my favoured control scheme.

PS: This looks stupid, my summary was longer than the post itself...



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

Mummelmann said:
Point out the absurd claims and conclusions if they're so wild, seem seasy enough. And where the hell did I state that the "Wii is doomed"? I've never said such a thing, I've always maintained that it'll easily sell the most this gen!
I don't know why, but you're getting really personal as of late, and none of the other senior users make these assaults and frantic attacks on every bit of reasoning that I try to concoct.
Does it really offend you that much to have someone with different opinions on forums you frequent? Are you're opinions better because you say so?
This is the typical internet forum setup, where everyone is an expert and make analysis of other people and their "flawed logic", and quite frankly; seeing your post history i thought you were above such things.

I call it how I see it. If that's an "assault" then so be it, but when people say absurd things I usually reply. It's not really my problem if people get offended because I calle their absurdrepleis absurd.

And please, do tell everyone which 3rd parties invest hugely in making immersive and solid Wii titles rather than spew out budget titles for quick dough. It is not absurd to claim that a console which is very, very easy to make money on will suffer a great deal of "earnings only" titles, at least not in my world.
And never once have I claimed that CoD style games are original, I was referring to new game series, and I do in fact never buy FPS games for consoles since I'm primarly a PC gamer.

So there's no big budget third party games but you comparison for your conclusions desperately cling to the budget titles? I don't think you can complain about Zack & Wiki's budget when your direct contrast are endless shooters under the guise of "new IPs." It's piss-poor cherry picking, I could paint the exact same asinine picture by comparing Imabiki-Sou to RE4 on the Wii.

I'm also not sure how Wii is going to become the "earnings only" platform as if the other platforms were walks in the park. The biggest winners on the Wii are Japanese developers and the biggest losers on the PS3 are Japanese developers, you're basically saying that for the rest of the generation they're going to sink money into big budget bombs while setting off scraps for the Wii to fund them and repeating the process of bombing again. I know there are some stupid 3rd parties out there but that's a terrible business practice and I can't think of a 3rd party that continually did that in any previous generation that's still here now.

I don't know what I've done to offend you enough to warrant these attacks, see the others who posted in these threads? I have no respect for people whose best argument is; "You're claims are absurd" or "That is unrealistic".
Seeing your profile and taste in games, I'd say you're a lot more narrow minded than me, so get off the horse and stop being so personal about things.
Judging by your claims and your post, I'm the only thing you hate more than anything non-Nintendo, and I feel sorry for you for it.

I'm a full time college student and a full time GAMER. I've been playing games since I was 2 years old, starting with an NES and moving up the generations. My favorite genre of games are RPGs, Action RPGs to be exact, but I play and enjoy all kinds of games on all consoles (PC included).

Oh wow, I had no idea. My profile is the epitome of narrow-mindedness, what with playing games of all genres and even including the PC as a platform. Nope, your replies aren't absurd in the least.



Tag - "No trolling on my watch!"

Wii Code (NTSC): 8319 5826 5461 1313     Brawl Code (Claud): 5284-1064-4130

hm it seems it will pass 7 mil before the end of the year



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Wow, just wow... I'm getting the thread locked to get you off my case.

PS: all you're favourite listed games are Nintendo and it shows in your posts. And btw; I never said that 3rd parties will earn money on Wii and bomb them on PS3, that's your statement to try to make me look bad. I said, and I stand by it, that they will earn money on the Wii, period. Jesus christ, get a new project besides me.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

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Mummelmann wants his thread locked, I'll lock it. Best to just move on, people, let's not get so serious about everything.

Continue in PMs if you must.



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