^Yep, totally agree-If Sony had Mario, they would put him in every other game too

Anyways, I'd say 15million + for SMG

Fatal Frame does indeed sound promising, and Monster Hunter is a very big title as well! What I really want to see is a slew of cool games that nail the Wiimote's capacity and make me go "YAY!".
I do think (and to an extent know) that these games are inbound, only there are too few imo.
Many developers (like EA) will make horrid games simply for quick cash, and many titles may be very good in one or two segments.
I want games that A: Look good (think RE4 Wii edition), B: Play well (MP3), and C: Have basis in themes and/or genres that are more appealing to us gamers (again, like those mentioned before).
Nintendo is among (if not the best) the best game developers in the world, but their efforts alone will not stave gamer complaints about the lack of hits outside Mario, Zelda and other major and aging Ninty franchises.
I trust Capcom, Square Enix, Sega and Bandai to turn the 3rd party wave into something positive rather than just a global ATM for lackluster dev's such as EA.
The minute that happens; I'm getting a Wii!

PS: Did you guys know that Mario is featured in more than 200 videogames? It's true.

Anyone gets bonus points in my book for

1) Writing coherent posts
2) Not making personal attacks/name calling
3) Making concrete predicitions and not putting them "under the rug" when they fail

and you get for all three.


And I do admit my predicitions are also coloured by what I want from the industry. I'd rather have Wii Fit 2 and Redicously More Brain Training than Halo 4.

LoL, even i expect SMG to reach 7 mln. LTD. =)

Yeah... i expected 5 - 8M

 First of all, Mummelmann, kudos not for the confession, but to withstand what seems to be somewhat an assault on your opinions, at times bordering on an assault on you.

Now that my "I've come not to praise Caesar, but to bury him" line is out of the way, I'll continue the assault.  ;)  But only on your opinion, with a slight twisting of your words.

 "almost none of the 3rd parties will take the Wii and its control scheme seriously, they'll simply use the platform to earn quick money on with low quality titles,"

Fixed by the way.  Pet peeve of mine, the "its",

I must agree with that statement.  But to carry it on farther, that means since quick money can be made, a lot, really a lot, of 3rd party games will be made.  PS2 had  2,054 and counting made for it.  While I don't think VG Chartz has precise PS2 game sales, it shows only 10% doing over 1M in sales (205 games), another 20% (410 games, hmmm... did ioi make up these numbers to hit it so exactly?) had sales above 100k.  Another 5% (113) sold 50k, which at $20 a pop = $1M in sales.

The point being, even if 'almost none' of the 3rd parties take seriously the controls and the power that the Wii does have, there is that 10% that will.  If nothing else, just the pride of workmanship to put out a somewhat decent product.  Which, if the game catches the Wii population's fancy, could make a ton of money as the Wii sales keep going up.

Lastly, I don't begrudge other groups in having their own genre of games, different than a lot of the more mainstream ones gamers might be used to.  Nintendogs for the DS is the Wii Sport game of that handheld, in my opinion.  It showed like no other game before it, what the  DS could do.  Do I play it?  Hell, no.  But I can understand why females, mostly young, but some older ones as well, play it.  And bought a lot of them.  I think that a similar franchise like Wii Sports, Nintendogs, Tetris is out there, still waiting to be discovered for the Wii.  Hopefully it will surprise us all.

Good post Renar, and good points. I think we see eye to eye in most matters, because I also believe that a good 10% of the 3rd party games might be worthwhile enterprises.
And, there really were some casual titles already in the NES days that sold fairly well, like Tetris and Dr. Mario, and even my mother and some of her friends played those.
They even played Super Mario Bros and SMB 3 and loved it, but their kind has since vanished, seemingly put off by the advanced and hardcore gameplay of modern day games.
Here in Norway, this group, or these groups counting all nongamer casuals, don't play any games regardless of platform today, including the Wii.
Fact is; here in Norway it is generally believed by everyone outside of gaming society that Nintendo stopped making consoles after the N64.
Too me, it's fine to try to reel in and cater to these customers as a sideproject, but I am very disappointed in Nintendo for aiming primarily at these players with their new console.
Its not that they don't deserve to play games (like they used to), but I feel it is just wrong to let this audience be the one to decide the future of gaming as a whole. And my fear is that this will happen sooner or later!

Well, to sum up; I am mostly a PC gamer, but I have owned and still own several consoles. This generation, however, has given me aches and troubles over choosing what to do! I wanted the PS3 all along, but then people started shouting "doom" and that all major support would shift over to Nintendo. Which was a shame I thought, since the two best consoles I've owned are both Sony's. I then decided to try to like the Wii, but it just wouldn't sit with me, I completely disagree with their bussiness model and their decision to utilize old technology, and I hate (d) the image of playing mundane genre games with a Wiimote in my hand. The 360 is not an option at all for me, between hardware failure and all those games it shares with either PC, PS3 or both, I see no reason to get it.
All this gives me a headache, and I'm left as a sad gamer in a time we should rejoice over a burgeoning game market.
So, here I am, playing games from 1991 on my PC in DosBox wailing over the unsettling (to me) situation on the console market, hoping I'll still get to play my favourite games with my favoured control scheme.

PS: This looks stupid, my summary was longer than the post itself...

I call it how I see it. If that's an "assault" then so be it, but when people say absurd things I usually reply. It's not really my problem if people get offended because I calle their absurdrepleis absurd.

So there's no big budget third party games but you comparison for your conclusions desperately cling to the budget titles? I don't think you can complain about Zack & Wiki's budget when your direct contrast are endless shooters under the guise of "new IPs." It's piss-poor cherry picking, I could paint the exact same asinine picture by comparing Imabiki-Sou to RE4 on the Wii.

I'm also not sure how Wii is going to become the "earnings only" platform as if the other platforms were walks in the park. The biggest winners on the Wii are Japanese developers and the biggest losers on the PS3 are Japanese developers, you're basically saying that for the rest of the generation they're going to sink money into big budget bombs while setting off scraps for the Wii to fund them and repeating the process of bombing again. I know there are some stupid 3rd parties out there but that's a terrible business practice and I can't think of a 3rd party that continually did that in any previous generation that's still here now.

I'm a full time college student and a full time GAMER. I've been playing games since I was 2 years old, starting with an NES and moving up the generations. My favorite genre of games are RPGs, Action RPGs to be exact, but I play and enjoy all kinds of games on all consoles (PC included).

Oh wow, I had no idea. My profile is the epitome of narrow-mindedness, what with playing games of all genres and even including the PC as a platform. Nope, your replies aren't absurd in the least.