Thanks.

And no, I think it really is too early to tell. It's been what, 2 or so months since it's release?

The wii u sold over 2 millon consoles and its failing lol.

This thread reminds me of the way Sega fans couldn't understand why the Dreamcast got overlooked under the shadow of the upcoming PS2. The Dreamcast had amazing graphics and amazing games as well as online gaming unlike anyone had ever seen. It really was a dream come true. Sega fans made it a record breaking launch, but it slowed, and slowed. Even with killer games month after month and even when the PS2 didn't live up to Sony's promises, the Dreamcast lost ground. Even when the first year of the PS2 had nothing worth playing and the Dreamcast had too many great games to play, the PS2 sold out and the Dreamcast sat on shelves. Sega fans couldn't believe it.

Is what happened to Dreamcast what's happening to Wii U? Are people waiting for Nextbox and PS4? Or is it just that people like me are waiting for the good stuff before jumping on the Wii U? I buy all Nintendo machines, but I'm waiting for a 3D Mario, full Zelda game, and a Metroid Prime or Mario Kart and I sure would mind a Star Fox. It's one or the other. Either people are waiting for the right Nintendo games or they are waiting for the Nextbox/PS4.

A lot of articles or polls that I have seen around random places of the internet show that most people actually want next gen to start. So I don't think a declining interested in dedicated home consoles is what's happening. Rather I think it's a lack of software for the Wii U atm.

Plus there will always be those that wait to see what each of the big 3 have to offer before they drop down some cash to purchase a new console.

starting a new trend. Gaming consoles are probably going to be under 150 consoles combined this new gen.

You mean 150M consoles sold across all 3 platforms?

Yep, maybe I should be a little bit more generous... 160 million (wiiu+PS4+360)

I think it's a combination of all 3. However, there are some slight differences between Sega's and Ninty's positions. 

1.Brand power and proven IPs. Ninty has arguably a larger fanbase and better selling games. What was the Dreamcast's best selling title? Sonic Adventures? Soulcalibur? Ninty will have SSB and MK and Zelda which is guaranteed  to sell a lot of systems. Combined with the converts that may have resulted in this previous gen, the momentum is there for Nintendo, which might have not been present in Sega because they never really had strong momentum, coming off the Saturn and the 32-X. Not to mention that Ninty is coming off of it's best gen ever, with the DS and the Wii.

2. The current state of the gaming industry. Never in a console generations have been such a odd evenly distributed marketshare between the consoles, no one console clearly "dominated". The Dreamcast was released when Sony was an all-powerful titan having sold the most home consoles in history during that time. Rather than fighting the shadow of the PS2, I believe they were fighting the momentum of the PS1.

3.Wtf are the competition MS and Sony doing? We have no idea.

4 and last point dot! Ok what did Ninty launch with? NSMBU and NLand. Those may have not been the best launch choices. Sega had arguably the best launch games of ALL-TIME. But that was also it's downfall, they showed their hand too early, their launch games are also their best selling games. So after the launch, there was nothing else left in store. I believe this is why Ninty is trying to hide their hand, they don't want to show off everything they have and be left without some aces in store, esp when the competition isn't out yet. They will try to overwhelm at E3, directly compete with them and hopefully win. They want to set a flow but they believe now it not yet the time. (At the expense of me boo hoo.)

I think is not the "beginning of the end", but I do think the market for dedicated gaming consoles will shrink this generation. A lot of people is just not interested and they have a lot of alternatives to get their games, cellphones and tables taking part of the market, specially with the low price of the games.

People will think twice about spending 300-400 dollars on a new console when they can still use their perfectly good Xbox 360, PS3 and even Wii. Also they are buying new cellphones and tables and they can get new games in there for almost free.

The dedicated gamer community is not a big as people think, a lot of PS3 and Xbox 360 (and obviously Wii) owners only bought the console to play Call of Duty, Madden, Wii Fit, or in my region FIFA and/or PES, hell I bought my PS3 last year and I already have more games that all the other owners of the console that I know in my work COMBINED!

What's with the sky is falling mentality that so many people have? The Wii U has been out for 2 months! Nintendo hasn't even announced a killer app yet! All is good in the Mushroom Kingdom which in turn means everything is good for MS and Sony as well.