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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predicition: PS3 will outsell Wii by the end of this console generation

Mad55 on 14 April 2012

no way lol



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Metallicube on 14 April 2012

Yup, and I will grow wings..



Conegamer on 14 April 2012
pezus said:
Conegamer said:
Note- DQX will NOT be ported to the PS3 this year, next year or ever.

And the Wii is at 95.6mil, whilst the PS3 is at 63.5mil. That's a gap of 32.1mil, or the PS3 would have to outsell the Wii for 321 weeks, or over 6 years, at exactly 100k per week, in order to overtake the Wii.

In 6 years, the Wii will be selling much closer to the PS3, as both will be nearly 0. So, unless there's a miracle, no.

Don't forget the holidays. I expect PS3 to slaughter Wii this holiday season, for obvious reasons (Wii U and practically no Wii games coming out)

Never discount the Wii in the holidays, though. The Wii outsold the PS3 every single week in the holiday period last year. Sure, the gaps were marginal, but kids will always want to buy a Wii, especially when the other option is the more expensive new console, with few games. You'd be surprised what selliing power it has in the holidays. 

Even assuming a 300k drop behind the PS3 (seeing a highly unlikely 800k to 500k sales on average in those 10 weeks), it'd only outsell the Wii by 7mil this year, and that gap would be around the same next year, but much less the year after (as the PS4 will be released, and the consoles will have run out of steam). So 5mil, 3mil, 1mil and then next to nothing. So worst-case scenario I see is that the PS3 will close the gap by 23mil from here. It needs 32.1, so it will fall short by nearly 10mil, worst-case scenario for Wii. 



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Jay520 on 14 April 2012

When The AGENT and Final Fantasy Versus 13 releases, it will get there.



Conegamer on 14 April 2012
pezus said:
Conegamer said:
pezus said:
Conegamer said:
Note- DQX will NOT be ported to the PS3 this year, next year or ever.

And the Wii is at 95.6mil, whilst the PS3 is at 63.5mil. That's a gap of 32.1mil, or the PS3 would have to outsell the Wii for 321 weeks, or over 6 years, at exactly 100k per week, in order to overtake the Wii.

In 6 years, the Wii will be selling much closer to the PS3, as both will be nearly 0. So, unless there's a miracle, no.

Don't forget the holidays. I expect PS3 to slaughter Wii this holiday season, for obvious reasons (Wii U and practically no Wii games coming out)

Never discount the Wii in the holidays, though. The Wii outsold the PS3 every single week in the holiday period last year. Sure, the gaps were marginal, but kids will always want to buy a Wii, especially when the other option is the more expensive new console, with few games. You'd be surprised what selliing power it has in the holidays. 

Even assuming a 300k drop behind the PS3 (seeing a highly unlikely 800k to 500k sales on average in those 10 weeks), it'd only outsell the Wii by 7mil this year, and that gap would be around the same next year, but much less the year after (as the PS4 will be released, and the consoles will have run out of steam). So 5mil, 3mil, 1mil and then next to nothing. So worst-case scenario I see is that the PS3 will close the gap by 23mil from here. It needs 32.1, so it will fall short by nearly 10mil, worst-case scenario for Wii. 

Hmm PS3 was ahead until the end of November and then they were basically tied until the last week of the year where PS3 outsold Wii by more than 200k. But Wii continues to drop a lot, and like I said I expect it to drop even more harshly this year due to no games and Wii U stealing the spotlight.

PS3 will outsell Wii by a lot more than 5m in 2013 I think. But otherwise I have to agree that it doesn't look very likely at the moment unless Wii magically stops selling after Wii U comes out.

I agree. I said 7mil for 2013. 5mil for 2014 etc.

I expect the Wii to drop, but not as harsh as the DS did (as they were effectively the same price; infact the DSiXL is more expensive than the 3DS in Japan). Don't forget DQX as well- that'll increase sales in Japan by about 150k overall. Depends on when it launches. I expect next year.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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Conegamer on 14 April 2012
pezus said:
Conegamer said:

pezus said

Hmm PS3 was ahead until the end of November and then they were basically tied until the last week of the year where PS3 outsold Wii by more than 200k. But Wii continues to drop a lot, and like I said I expect it to drop even more harshly this year due to no games and Wii U stealing the spotlight.

PS3 will outsell Wii by a lot more than 5m in 2013 I think. But otherwise I have to agree that it doesn't look very likely at the moment unless Wii magically stops selling after Wii U comes out.

I agree. I said 7mil for 2013. 5mil for 2014 etc.

I expect the Wii to drop, but not as harsh as the DS did (as they were effectively the same price; infact the DSiXL is more expensive than the 3DS in Japan). Don't forget DQX as well- that'll increase sales in Japan by about 150k overall. Depends on when it launches. I expect next year.

Oh, right. Misread that. Isn't DQX coming to Wii U too?

Yes, but it will still boost Wii sales regardless. DQ is ridiculously big. They have to release them on Saturdays so that the entire country doesn't shut down...provided it releases within the next 18 months, it'll be absolutely hugefor both Wii and WiiU...

If you could get a Wii and the next Dragon Quest game in Japan for £100, you'd be surprised how many would do that.

And of course the slight boost in the West etc. etc., but it's pretty irrelevant.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

archbrix on 14 April 2012

Not a chance, if the PS4 and NeXtBox do indeed launch in 2013.

However if Sony does the smart thing and continues to put their full support behind PS3 and come up with market-expanding type games in addition to GOW4 and Uncharted 4, drop the price to $149 for holiday of 2013, and they don't launch the PS4 until 2015, then it is possible.

Based on the likelihood that these things won't take place, then no, it won't.



PlaystaionGamer on 14 April 2012

Not before the new systems. If Sony cut the PS3 price by a lot with a new super slim then yes it will eventually outsell the Wii. Sony Would have won 3 generations in a row!



Carl on 14 April 2012

No chance before all 3 next gen consoles.



                            

PlaystaionGamer on 14 April 2012

I actually think... And wait for it.... The orbis will launch... This year in Japan.


Ok maybe not but that would be a surprise