I dunno I think it's going to be close here in North America. Microsoft dominates North America largely because North America is their number one target audience. Japan is deffinatly a place where Microsoft has been trying to show some of its financial power. However in North America Halo3/HaloWars/Fable2/Banjo-Kazooie and the countless other titles yet to be announced should give it a good position against Nintendo on a continental basis.

The biggest thing Microsoft has going for it is its Live service. However despite its quality I am beggining to have my doubts as to its ability to remain the dominant platform. The yearly fee of 50+$ is too much for some consumers and many will prefer the cost less competition. Despite Microsoft's dominance in quality they have to worry about consumers finances. Maybe Microsoft could cut the price altogether or how about cutting the Price to say 10 or so dollars a year.

Halo3 is going to get some mad competition from SmashBros:Brawl this fall. If both titles are fully online its going to be the battle of a life time to see just which online network can hold dominant participation numbers. Will the amount of online Nintendo gamers out number those of online Microsoft gamers. If the Live service is no longer dominant (participation wise) can it maintain dominance sales wise. Or will gamers begin to turn to the cheaper alternatives.

The Elite should help Microsoft remain dominant in North America this fall but it won't helop them much come next year. Also Microsoft's choice to have a four year life cycle over the industry standard 5-year cycle has hurt it with the origional X-Box. After 360 launched the orgional X-Box went on a downward spiral and is now practically dead this gave GameCube a year to surpass Microsoft's sales for a Nintendo victory (Globally)!

So will Microsoft really be able to beat Nintendo, I don't know. I won't claim to know its going to be very very very close. I wish them bost the ebst of luck!

Hey Kwaad! I'm glad you brought that up about Godfather sales. I was honestly shocked that the Wii sales weren't better. All the hype with the controls, and they are great, and it is one of the few games that don't have a big difference graphicswise. My only response for this outcome isn't just that Nintendo platforms sell poorly for 3rd parties. I think they have a problem selling mature games on their platforms. The Gamecube had a hard time even selling second party adult titles. stuff like Eternal Darkness and Metal Gear Solid Twin Snakes did okay on the GC. I think if Nintendo wants to change this they have to develop an adult market. Meaning they need a few exlcusive AAA titles with mature themes on the Wii to prove there is a market for it. Right now that audience isnt' seeing the Wii as a mature machine, and it seems even the hardcore gamers that own a Wii are using it for Wii sports type gameplay and First party titles, instead of a variety of gameplay experiences. Hopefully metriod can change this by setting a solid precendent for fps gameplay on the Wii. If it can prove the Wii is the place to play shooters more shooters will come and follow that mold and then the mature gamers will come. But they have to really pave that road.

I somehow think that the Wii's inability to move mature games on its platform isn't nearly as serious as the PS3's inability to move its consoles, but that's just me .

/opinion 

20% for development is based off of this recent Gears of War breakdown by Forbes. Actually 45% goes to development as I wasn't counting Art/Design. Considering Gears of War sold much better, development for Motorstorm may even account for a larger portion due to lower sales. Kind of difficult to guage exactly how much Motorstorm cost to produce, but I'm guessing in the $10-15 million range since a game like Killzone is expected to cost $20-25 million. 

Art/Design: 25% (about $15)

Programming And Engineering: 20% (about $12)

Retail: 20% ($12)

Console Owner Fee: 11.5% (about $7)

Marketing: 7% (about $4)

Market Development Fund: 5% (about $3)

Manufacturing Costs, Packaging: 5% (about $3)

Licensing: 5% (about $3)

Publisher profit: 1.5% (about $1)

Distributor: 1.5% (about $1)

Corporate Costs (quantitative analysis, management overhead): 0.3% (about 20 cents)

Hardware development costs: 0.05% (less than 3 cents)

http://www.forbes.com/2006/12/19/ps3-xbox360-costs-tech-cx_rr_game06_1219expensivegames.html

Yeah Hus,

                  What now?  

That is why I bash the Wii. You said it right there. And as long as 'mature' titles sell better on the PS3 and 360. They will stay on the PS3/360. (Seriously, if godfather had better graphics on the PS3 version it would probibally have sold alot more, as if you buy a 600$ console, and pay 60$ for a game... it should at least look 'good'. Not look last-gen.

My other dissapointment in nintendo is... they have *no* plans to pave that road.

 EDIT: They tried with Eternal Darkness... And failed. (I loved that game, one of the best games I've EVER played)

 How do you "pave that road" exactly?  The Wii is a system for everyone, meaning mature gamers and kiddies alike.  I don't see how Nintendo can do anything...it's up to the consumer to buy the game...Nintendo doesn't make games like Manhunt, Godfather, RE, etc.  Those just aren't the kind of games Nintendo likes to make.  Nintendo as a game developer likes to make games that are accessible to everyone, and they sure pass.  I think you need to give them more credit.  If the Wii is full of "everyone" games with mature games selling on the side, I think that's fine.

Guys, guys, guys. The Europe/PAL launch was Sony's last chance. Not only has dominance been lost but now survival might be as well.

1st party didn't save Nintendo's console spot and it is by far the best 1st party around. I cannot stand to see people delude themselves. It forces me to broadcast reality.

Three Fronts Sony's fighting on:

Japan- Lost to Nintendo entirely. WiiDS Phenomenon strongest there. XBox 360 non-factor here luckily for Sony.

USA & the Americas- Facing the prospect of the oft-talked about Wii60 combo.

Europe- This is NOT living. The only true battleground left and Sony's losing ground here as well surprisingly to Nintendo which has historically flubbed this region. XBox 360 still somehow hasn't made its mark here yet. Microsoft monopolies must scare the Europeans off. They must anti-trust it or something.

Then the rest:

Australia- A smaller populated region where Sony faces off once again against the Wii60 combo.

New Zealand- OK Sony rules here.

Rest of World (Africa, West Asia, Non-Japan Asia, India, Antarctica, Greenland, etc.)- either PC games, don't buy games, buy "new" gamesystems from 10 or 15 years ago, or bootlegs. Nobody really wins here except...*gasp* Counterfeit Jeans.

So in all that and the time we've seen from the systems (it's almost been half a year now) how in the Gargamel does anybody think Sony can turn this around short of a miracle of divine intervention???

They'll have to see the Virgin Mary or something in the shiny finish of the PS3 for them to come out of this now.

At best they'll hang on until gen is over losing lots of money but still able to go for a PS4...MAYBE. That's best case scenario now. They have made terrible business decisions and public relations decisions and have thrown away their brandpower. It's nice to hope but don't delude yourselves. Just look at what is happening.

PS3 & Wii launched at virtually the same time. The gulf is only going to widen. In Japan they had almost a whole month headstart. It was foolish not to TRY to put together PAL region launch. That was a fatal move and I saw that coming a mile away. This is not 1985 anymore. There is an internet now and people can get feedback listening to people from other regions. It can damper desire for a product.

It's all about your suppliers. More now than ever before. Games are harder to make and more complex so it takes more time and more money. You need volume to fill in the gaps between releases. Sony will need those 3rd party suppliers or they will be in quite a N64 kind of way. And I remember those days. I lived through 'em. They were not fun when it came to waiting for games.

The 3rd party suppliers are loyal only to the dollar/yen/euro. Whoever they feel can make them the most bank they will get behind. Microsoft might YET pick up a little in Japan if 3rd party gets behind them. If that happens where does that leave Sony? If the Japanese 3rd party split the difference between Sony in the East and Microsoft in the West, Sony STILL loses out. Not enough volume and it will stagnate sales which in turn aggravates 3rd parties.

I'm sorry to tell you but it's only going to get worse. There's a reason you hear Sony publically rethinking their strategy now. There's a reason people are resigning and folks are getting laid off. I'd like to think it's just coincidence and unrelated but it's not. A company on the rise either maintains workforce or expands it. Whole depts. & staff don't just get dropped like that. They either get reassigned or redesigned. Individuals getting laid off is different. But marked staff getting dropped in the midst of bad news is always a sign of things not smelling right in Denmark.

This is not a bash. This is reality. And someone has to break the news to you.

Sony's best bet now is to figure out how to hang on and see if they got enough to put together a PS4. Because life will be short for the PS3. If they keep playing Microsoft's game, we may be seeing Sony's last days in the gaming business.

John Lucas

First.

BenKenobi88 - Nintendo needs to get 'mature' gamers to buy the console... or at least buy the games on their console, and the rival. Games like Eternal Darkness is how it is done. I would buy Eternal Darkness2. I would actually buy that over any game coming out in 2007. However I dont buy crappy multiplatform games. (it's rare when I get one, and usually those are actually good games, and I choose the platform, I will be most confertable with. It used to be the GameCube (wave bird controllers) Then it went to the PS2 (logitech wireless controllers). And now I have the Wii... (Worst game controller since NES) and the PS3... (feels just like the PS2 controller... with no wire).

I would choose the PS3 over the Wii every time. (it would hopefully have better graphics too).

Nintendo needs to PAVE the way. They need to make it so I buy the 10$ cheaper version, instead of the PS3 version.

 What? The Wii is meant for everyone? So that means that GodFather should have sold 2x what it did on the PS3... What? The Wii version sold 17% LESS? That means the Wii is faling HORRIBLY for crappy 3rd party multiplatform games.

While it is a somewhat valid point, you are overstating it.  using the weekly charts data of 28k vs 23k is not very credible or big enough sales to make a difference.  Did you see the sales for Call of Duty and Red Steel?