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Forums - Sales Discussion - What will happen to 360 if Kinect fails?

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Update

Its been confirmed Microsoft is sinking over 500-million dollars into Kinect's ad campaign. What happens if it fails to be as big of a hit as Microsoft expects and they end up having lost all that money?

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Yeah I know the subject might be more fitting on the Microsoft boards but I want to get everyones opinion (Not just M$ fans). Not to mention I'm talking about sales figures.

We know that Move shipped like 300,000 units at launch. This is fairly good for a peripheral. Kinect is arguably even bigger and could ship millions this winter. But what happens if Kinect fails to deliver on its pormises? What if Kinect is before its time and isn't able to offer us a great new way to play?

Now what am I talking about of course Kinect will live up to its rep?

Well today Kotaku announced from the official manual. That in order to play Kinect at its best you need at least 6-feet between you and the system. 8-feet if your playing multiplayer. How many of the consumers who will purchase the product day one are actually aware of this? Will Kinect still work at about 2-3 feet from the TV (Like most peoples homes) or will it dissapoint the consumers who live in Apartments , smaller condo's or even some homes?

Then theirs the camera according to the manual you need to keep it out of the light. No direct light this is understandable. But how many of the consumers are aware of this and will be aware of this come launch. What if the living room is facing outside these consumers will be let down won't they.

Then it says if your wearing bright clothes the camera may have problems picking you up. It suggests changing clothes to play Kinect. Or how about the fact that while Microsoft claims to have fixed the sitting down issue their isn't any software that enables you to sit down while playing, will that deter consumers and possibly lead to a backlash. Then theirs the official 200-ms delay and worse for other games this lag could dissapoint some consumers.

Now don't get me wrong I would love to see Kinect become everything Microsoft is/has promised/es but what will happen to Microsoft's 360 platform if Kinect fails to deliver? Will a failure of Kinect hurt Microsoft's sales? Or could Microsoft weather the storm if Kinect fails and maintain the second largest market share? Would Kinect's failure lead to the Nex-Box coming out next winter?

Just how important is a flawless launch of Kinect to Microsoft's viability in the console market?



-JC7

"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer

 

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Nothing will happen to it.

Is 360 selling so well right now because of Kinect? No

so Kinect can't do any harm to 360 really, if it does fail 360 will continue to sell well like it is now.

But if Kinect is massive it'll increase 360 sales even more, thats true as well.



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

darthdevidem01 said:

Nothing will happen to it.

Is 360 selling so well right now because of Kinect? No

so Kinect can't do any harm to 360 really, if it does fail 360 will continue to sell well like it is now.

But if Kinect is massive it'll increase 360 sales even more, thats true as well.


360 is selling alright without Kinect. But this week its only ahead like 37,000 units thats not extremely ahead. Now you do offer a good point with 360 selling alright now how could Kinect hurt sales in the future. Simple, negative publicity if Kinect fails to perform as expected millions of consumers might get upset. These million consumers then spread their story to millions of possible consumers. This negative press spread by mouth cause thousands to millions of gamers to go for Move or Wii instead of choosing 360.

If Kinect fails big time the ramifications for 360 as a platform could be huge. Especially if Move manages to ignite the sales they hope to get.

I dunno everyone says any publicity is good publicity but could Kinect if failed causing tons of negative publicity cause hardware sales to hurt?



-JC7

"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer

 

at least kinect adventures preoder in NA region alone already > 140K, still 5 week before release

so i think 1 mil worldwide for 1st week is easyly achievable.

at least above PS3 move 250-300K for 1st week



You would have to ask the same question regarding the failure of the Virtual Boy and Nintendo. Virtual Boy was released in 1995, a year before the release of the Nintendo 64, and it did not seem to hit Nintendo hard, if at all when they discontinued a year later.

What failed with the Virtual Boy was the entire concept of a system where you look through goggles to play games. If Kinect fails, it will confirm suspicions that the mass market is not ready for a controller-less video gaming experience.

The concepts fail, the companies take the financial hit, and the industry goes on as usual. If anything, who will hurt most is those within Microsoft who envisioned Kinect, those who are putting their resumes on the line with Kinect, and those VPs who have supported Kinect tooth and nail.

I don't think it will hit Microsoft's hardware sales, it will definitely destroy hardware projections based on the success of Kinect. If anything, the ultimate good may arise out of the failure of Kinect via Microsoft getting more serious on 1st party games and developing new IPs to compete.

Basically, if Kinect fails I will not be surprised if Microsoft counters with a flurry of 1st party software. If Kinect succeeds or muddles the ground just above Kinect, then Microsoft will focus on software development for it and tweak it for future console generations.



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Life will go on. Thats pretty much it.



Tease.

Nothing.

With Kinect Ms wants to build another base on it's own. If it succeeds, well they get even more money and sales. It might also change the type of games for the whole gaming industry.

If it fails, MS will loose the millions they put into the R&D department and advertising, but 360 will continue just like before. Nopw if it could maintain second place in the console race is another question. But it COULD become third place, not because it's selling worse, but the competition's selling even better.



updated: 14.01.2012

playing right now: Xenoblade Chronicles

Hype-o-meter, from least to most hyped:  the Last Story, Twisted Metal, Mass Effect 3, Final Fantasy XIII-2, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, Playstation ViTA

bet with Mordred11 that Rage will look better on Xbox 360.

dejelek said:

at least kinect adventures preoder in NA region alone already > 140K, still 5 week before release

so i think 1 mil worldwide for 1st week is easyly achievable.

at least above PS3 move 250-300K for 1st week


That the first week will be higher is already widely known. Now can it maintain this success over the coming weeks?



updated: 14.01.2012

playing right now: Xenoblade Chronicles

Hype-o-meter, from least to most hyped:  the Last Story, Twisted Metal, Mass Effect 3, Final Fantasy XIII-2, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, Playstation ViTA

bet with Mordred11 that Rage will look better on Xbox 360.

Killiana1a said:

You would have to ask the same question regarding the failure of the Virtual Boy and Nintendo. Virtual Boy was released in 1995, a year before the release of the Nintendo 64, and it did not seem to hit Nintendo hard, if at all when they discontinued a year later.

What failed with the Virtual Boy was the entire concept of a system where you look through goggles to play games. If Kinect fails, it will confirm suspicions that the mass market is not ready for a controller-less video gaming experience.

The concepts fail, the companies take the financial hit, and the industry goes on as usual. If anything, who will hurt most is those within Microsoft who envisioned Kinect, those who are putting their resumes on the line with Kinect, and those VPs who have supported Kinect tooth and nail.

I don't think it will hit Microsoft's hardware sales, it will definitely destroy hardware projections based on the success of Kinect. If anything, the ultimate good may arise out of the failure of Kinect via Microsoft getting more serious on 1st party games and developing new IPs to compete.

Basically, if Kinect fails I will not be surprised if Microsoft counters with a flurry of 1st party software. If Kinect succeeds or muddles the ground just above Kinect, then Microsoft will focus on software development for it and tweak it for future console generations.

Microsoft are pouring much more money into Kinect than Nintendo ever did with the Virtual Boy. The R&D has been rumoured to be extremely high and the Microsoft PR is saying that it's marketing budget is massive. It also doesn't help that they might not be making much (if any) profit at launch. I think they might have spent so much money, that if Kinect does fail, Microsoft are probably going to try it again with their next console. They can't let all that investment go to waste and I can see them taking it all in again, working on it more and then making it a built in feature with their next console. Microsoft has a lot of money to spend, but if their investors are pissed off when the console is actually doing well and making a profit, I can't imagine they'd be to happy if more money is being thrown at Microsoft Game Studios after a bad launch.



Bet with Conegamer and AussieGecko that the PS3 will have more exclusives in 2011 than the Wii or 360... or something.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3879752

umm, well if it fails below 2 million sales and negative publicity it will harm sales,they will continue. But 360 sales could drop since Microsoft has banked on its success, they are spending huge amounts of money on it, and the 360 doesn't have much going on 1st party support for the next several months post kinect, that will give Ps3 and Wii sales advantage and ultimately increased because an new consumer will pick either of the two since they have an wide variety of new games coming out exclusive on top of 3rd party. 

But after a while if it fails things will go back to normal, Wii sales will continue to decline and PS3 and 360 rise 



Of Course That's Just My Opinion, I Could Be Wrong