Better get fulfilled for sure!

Ok, for the sake of argument PS2 will have ~140-5m shipped while they continue to slowly sell systems 1m/year for who knows how long. The DS is at 127m. If we assume they reached ~30m for FY2010. Let's assume some doomsday numbers for the following years.

20m FY 2011 (launch of 3DS & down 10m units YoY. GBA dropped a few million the year the DS launched)
10m FY 2012 (GBA halved the next year, however this number is higher than the GBA in the equivalent year)
5m FY 2013 (GBA was still selling decent too)

DS total = 163m

So just this year alone should be more than enough to surpass the PS2.

I don't think it is going to launch worldwide in 2010, just in Japan...and so DS still has an 8-10m Christmas quarter in 2010.

I think one of the reasons this is being announced before E3 is that Nintendo would have had to include 3DS in their fiscal year projections for March 2011 - and those projections are coming May 6 - about six weeks before E3.

DS should get to 175m or so.  It will be around 130m shipped through March 2010. Even if it declined by 50% in the next fiscal year, it would be at 145m. Could keep declining by half in each subsequent fiscal year, and reach 152.5m, then 156m, 158m, 159m etc. So for me ~160m is the absolute low point for DS.

Odds are they'll lower the price of DS with the 3DS or PSP2 launch, and that should prevent such a rapid decline, as DS has never really had a price cut anywhere - and yet its still at 125m+

Also, PS2 shipments should finish at about 145-150m worldwide, based on where it is and how its declining.

^what the dude above me said =p

no question about that. handhelds don't sell nearly as much software as home consoles. The DS would have to double the amount of software it has sold already.

My thoguhts are simialr, 145M by Dec 2010 looks likely, about 130M has been shipped now as we speak but I expect a few more thousands towards the end of this month.  Dropping the price of DS near Christmas will eb a good idea hence peopel getting hyped about the 3DS.  Still even after 3DS is released DS should continue to sell for another year or 2.

You also have to remember that DS sales wont completely die on the first day 3DS is released. Drop it to £50 with a range of cheap re-releases of key titles (like NSMB DS, Mario Kart DS), aim for the really young players and value gamers and such. Especially if 3DS is fairly expensive at the start. That strategy would see a fair few million more sales for maybe a year or two.

the normal ds will catch up on hardware sales with no problem at this point. once the 3DS is released expect a DS price drop

Most definitely. Remember, the GBA sold well after the release of the DS, and the GB/GBC sold for awhile after the GBA. And the 3DS isn't even coming out until next year. I think the DS will have roughly another 2 years of strong sales ahead of it, and probably sell another 20-30 million when it's all said and done.

Yep with Ease.