I don't think it is going to launch worldwide in 2010, just in Japan...and so DS still has an 8-10m Christmas quarter in 2010.
I think one of the reasons this is being announced before E3 is that Nintendo would have had to include 3DS in their fiscal year projections for March 2011 - and those projections are coming May 6 - about six weeks before E3.
DS should get to 175m or so. It will be around 130m shipped through March 2010. Even if it declined by 50% in the next fiscal year, it would be at 145m. Could keep declining by half in each subsequent fiscal year, and reach 152.5m, then 156m, 158m, 159m etc. So for me ~160m is the absolute low point for DS.
Odds are they'll lower the price of DS with the 3DS or PSP2 launch, and that should prevent such a rapid decline, as DS has never really had a price cut anywhere - and yet its still at 125m+
Also, PS2 shipments should finish at about 145-150m worldwide, based on where it is and how its declining.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
