Fivethirtyeight made an outlook on who might make the third debate.
9 candidates are qualified so far: Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Beto O'Rourke, Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang.
4 candidates are more or less close and might or might not clear the mark (and as polls and donors are also counted towards the qualification of the fourth debate, if they miss this one they have still a reasonable shot at the next):
- Julian Castro has enough donors and already 3 qualifiying polls. He only needs one more poll.
- Tom Steyer also has already three polls, only one away. 538 cites his campaign with being close to the donor-mark, so that might be doable too.
- Tulsi Gabbard has cleared the donor-mark, but only has one qualifying poll. It is possible for her to get three more, but it will be difficult.
- Kirsten Gillibrand has not yet reached 130K donors, but is reasonably close. She also has only one qualifying poll.
So from these four some may make it. I have ordered them in order of the chance I think they have to make it.
From the rest only three have made some reasonable progress. Jay Inslee and Marianne Williamson are close to hitting 130K donors, but have not a single qualifying poll. John Hickenlooper has one qualifying poll, but is reportedly far away from the needed donors. These three are very unlikely to make it, even to the fourth debate.
The rest is far away in both donors and have no qualifying polls. They will probably have no chance.
