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| Jaicee said: Just a casual note today: Elizabeth Warren has now moved up to second place in the Real Clear Politics polling average for the first time. Now has polled in second place before in individual surveys, but not in the recent polling average overall. Until now. As of now the RCP polling averages of the candidates are: I don't suspect this move up the ladder for Warren will last. It's clearly just the effect of the last debate and will probably evaporate over the month with Sanders retaking second place by the time we get to the next debate in September because this clearly WANTS to be a race specifically between Biden and Sanders, but still it's the first time this has happened, so thought it worth casually noting anyway. |
Actually Elizabeth Warren is the only one with a steady rise and not short term bumps that tend to fade. If you look at the RCP average, she was at 5.x% in April, 9.x% in May, 11.x% in June 14.x in July and seems to rise further. So for Warren I wouldn't be that sure.
I think this has to do with Warren having built a gigantic staff force on the ground in many states. As field staff is meeting people in person she can bring her message with much more intensity to people than with TV and online presence. And she has that too. So I wouldn't be that pessimistic about her.
What baffles me that her rise doesn't come from Biden or Sanders, as both seem stable. Harris won and lost mostly in exchange with Biden, but Warrens rise seems unchanged by that. So this probably comes from the decline of lesser candidates. If you poll at about 1% and drop to .5% most people will not notice. But if ten people do that that are 5% of votes that go to another candidate. But we will see how that develops in the future.
