Jaicee said:
Thou DOUBTEST the Janice?! Ye shall learn!! In seriousness, I love how optimistic some of you are that there's still a realistic chance that someone other than Joe Biden could win the nomination, but I've seen enough of these now to know that you're just simply wrong. For example, people keep repeating the same above line that Biden's only winning at present due to superior name-recognition no matter how late in the race it gets. I imagine somebody may still be trying that argument in December even. The fact is that, in the long run, the polls aren't moving, or at least not much. It doesn't seem to especially matter how much people get to know the other candidates; it's not changing the way they intend to vote, or at least not appreciably. The details of my prediction that I posted a couple pages ago are debatable and could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that my prediction Joe Biden will win in the end isn't. |
As I said before: Obama took over Clinton in polls only in February 2008. She had higher polls than Biden has now. She had more endorsements than Biden has now. In 2016 everyone was soooo convinced Hillary Clinton already had it in the bag.
So, has Biden a better chance to win the nomination than everyone else? Sure! Has he a good chance, even at least a 50% chance? Eh, I think not. The 538-data implies historically he would end up in 40% of cases as the nominee. That is below even 50%. Would I be surprised if he made it in the end? No. But I wouldn't be surprised either if Sanders or Warren get the nomination. Or even Harris, she does very well in endorsements.
The historical data 538 took into consideration says Biden has an about 40% chance to win the nomination. Well, it's flimsy data but it is an educated guess. Let's say he has a 50% chance. So it still means in half the worlds he loses the nomination. It is reasonable to say he ends up not being the nominee.
The model (so much more detailed) 538 had for the 2016 election gave Hillary a 70% chance to win the presidency, and she still lost. Because even 10% is still a reasonable likely chance. If we go inot 1% territory, that is quite unlikely, but still not impossible.
