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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official 5 week Sept USA NPD Thread (Data released ~6:30 pm 10/18/2007)

Well basically, gears of war will likely sell more then all of sonys 1st party titles this year combined. I think that's the problem with ps3, it's getting expensive big budget titles that do NOT move, a shitty game like two worlds sells more then heavenly sword.



Note: Some games in my collection are no longer owned, but have owned.

HS estimated development costs were around $20 million. Add to that a multi-million dollar television ad campaign. That is not a cheap game.



fkusumot said:

Seems like Halo sales really brought down Wii sales. I'm worried for the XBox360 though. When 3rd parties see how well the 1st party software does it may scare them off from trying to compete.


Huh?  Three of the top ten titles this month are third party 360 games, this dispite the fact that 3.3 million copies of what was probably the most anticipated first party title dominating the console.  When you add in the fact that the only other third party game in the top ten is a PS2 game your comment becomes bizarre to say the least.



Amazing sales for xbox, and halo 3, 3.3 m in 2 weeks its incredeble and. Wii did very good with no game and, Where is Leo-J???



End of 2011 (made 02/01/11) 
Wii: 99.453 m
Xbox 360: 67.837 m 
Ps 3: 60.726 m

Best Games/Serie of the Generation

Legend11 said:
fkusumot said:

Seems like Halo sales really brought down Wii sales. I'm worried for the XBox360 though. When 3rd parties see how well the 1st party software does it may scare them off from trying to compete.


Huh? Three of the top ten titles this month are third party 360 games, this dispite the fact that 3.3 million copies of what was probably the most anticipated first party title dominating the console. When you add in the fact that the only other third party game in the top ten was a PS2 game your comment becomes bizarre to say the least.


It was sarcasm. I fell for it, as well.

Not very good, though. 



DonWii said:
Legend11 said:
fkusumot said:

Seems like Halo sales really brought down Wii sales. I'm worried for the XBox360 though. When 3rd parties see how well the 1st party software does it may scare them off from trying to compete.


Huh? Three of the top ten titles this month are third party 360 games, this dispite the fact that 3.3 million copies of what was probably the most anticipated first party title dominating the console. When you add in the fact that the only other third party game in the top ten was a PS2 game your comment becomes bizarre to say the least.


It was sarcasm. I fell for it, as well.

It would have been sarcasm if there were no third party 360 titles in the top 10 (putting the 360 in the same position as the Wii when it's major first party games dominate the system).  That would have made 360 owners look like fools for saying such things about the Wii, but he failed.



Wow. Does anyone realize how preposterous it is that there were three (3) consoles that sold over 500K units in NA in the 5 weeks of September?!? That is absolutely crazy. Even if you ignore the potential 45% year-over-year gain in total revenue, which is inflated by new, more expensive hardware, just the hardware unit sales are crazy enough to suggest we may be in the biggest year in VG history.

Halo 3 obviously went off without a hitch, and drove the kind of hardware adoption we should have been expecting... Not millions, but hundreds of thousands above normal... A bunch of questions remain, though...

1. Will Microsoft pull off a profitable quarter?

2. Will Halo 3 and price cuts drive 360 hardware sales beyond the 500K Nov/1M Dec the brand usually sees?

3. Will Halo 3 software sales stay sky high through the holidays, driving it towards an eventual 10M sales?



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

shams said:

It may be too late for Sony - but is Ninty's strategy of cheaper/casual development the right one? Is it worth doing this to fill in the coffers, and THEN use some of this money to fund the riskier big-budget titles?

(sorry to all - this is sort of off-topic :P)


You're going to have to ask someone like urnote or mars to explain that one to you because I certainly can't.  I mentioned before on one of the the 40GB PS3 threads that it reeked of a last gasp effort.  Last months Japan and NA numbers don't do anything to dissuade me from thinking that.

Another question, aside from MH3 where are the PS3 games that were supposed to be yanked if it didn't start selling considerably better?   It seems like each month the Wii's impressive sales are met with a collective "meh, we're scared of Nintendo and the Wii being a fad that could die at any moment" from 3rd parties yet the PS3 sees continued strong support from 3rd parties despite sales just above gutter.  Yes I know, 3rd party shovelware hasn't sold on the Wii, yet what 3rd party game has sold well on the PS3 yet?  Oh well, there's a huge opportunity to shake up the video game world for any 3rd parties willing to take the risk.



Here is what I am projecting for 2007 (by NPD) Oct-Dec numbers are estimated, other numbers are publicly reported figures.

 .5YTD TotalJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
Wii ~2.1 million425,000403,600501,000424,0001,000,0002,000,000
Xbox 360~1.2 million170,000276,700527,800360,000575,0001,325,000
PS3~763,500159,000130,600119,40090,000400,0001,000,000
DS~2.7 million405,000383,300495,800390,000850,0002,250,000
PSP~1.3 million214,000151,200284,500234,000475,0001,250,000
GBA~740,50087,00069,50075,00048,000100,000225,000
PS2~1.5 million222,000202,000215,000168,000376,0001,000,000

Reasons:

- Halo 3 boost wears off in October for 360 - but momentum continues.  Sales won't double in Nov from Oct because the biggest game was released in Sept, and because PS3 becomes $400/$500 (and the $500 version includes a game) November 2.

- PS3 in Nov sees normal 2x sales boosts for holidays, +2x sales boost from price drop.  I may be a bit generous with December - but at $400/$500 PS3 can probably move ~1.2 million units - at least over the holidays (Nov/Dec).  I think sales bottom out around 20k per week when the 60 gig finally runs out, and before the 40 gig is introduced (in other words the 80 gig model becomes the only sku for a few weeks).

- Wii will more than double in November.  Guitar Hero 3/Galaxy/Wiki/Soul Calibur Legends/Mario and Sonic will be meeting the needs of various types of gamers in November.

- DS and PSP and PS2 will more than double in Nov and Dec because they are so damn cheap with such extensive libraries of good games compared to everything else.

- PS3 at $400 can probably outsell PS2...although it will be close and Sony may drop PS2 to $100.  I wouldn't be surprised if Wii sales in Nov+Dec are roughly the same as PS3 sales for 2007

- Guitar Hero 3 should help Wii the most, which is the main reason I have 360 under 600k in November.  It is a good stepping stone up from Wii Sports/Wii Play/etc, and PS2/360 already have a version of Guitar Hero.  At the same time, people who like that kind of game won't spend $400/$500 + the cost of the game to get a PS3 just for this game.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Legend11 said:
DonWii said:
Legend11 said:
fkusumot said:

Seems like Halo sales really brought down Wii sales. I'm worried for the XBox360 though. When 3rd parties see how well the 1st party software does it may scare them off from trying to compete.


Huh? Three of the top ten titles this month are third party 360 games, this dispite the fact that 3.3 million copies of what was probably the most anticipated first party title dominating the console. When you add in the fact that the only other third party game in the top ten was a PS2 game your comment becomes bizarre to say the least.


It was sarcasm. I fell for it, as well.

It would have been sarcasm if there were no third party 360 titles in the top 10 (putting the 360 in the same position as the Wii when it's major first party games dominate the system).  That would have made 360 owners look like fools for saying such things about the Wii, but he failed.

Sarcasm- harsh or bitter derision or irony.

Irony- a linguistic device or form of humour that takes its effect from stating or implying the opposite of what is the case or what is intended.

I think fkusomot could read the charts as well as you could so why would it have been sarcasm only if the charts agreed with what he said?  Seems to me he was being ironic by saying 3rd parties will be scared of MS on the 360 when that clearly isn't the case. Which I think would qualify as ironic derision (or perhaps derisive irony) or, as it's also known, sarcasm.  The first sentence of his post was an even bigger give away that the entire post was sarcastic.