The Official 5 week Sept USA NPD Thread (Data released ~6:30 pm 10/18/2007)

[TheSource]

Here is what I am projecting for 2007 (by NPD) Oct-Dec numbers are estimated, other numbers are publicly reported figures.

	.5YTD Total	July	August	September	October	November	December
Wii	~2.1 million	425,000	403,600	501,000	424,000	1,000,000	2,000,000
Xbox 360	~1.2 million	170,000	276,700	527,800	360,000	575,000	1,325,000
PS3	~763,500	159,000	130,600	119,400	90,000	400,000	1,000,000
DS	~2.7 million	405,000	383,300	495,800	390,000	850,000	2,250,000
PSP	~1.3 million	214,000	151,200	284,500	234,000	475,000	1,250,000
GBA	~740,500	87,000	69,500	75,000	48,000	100,000	225,000
PS2	~1.5 million	222,000	202,000	215,000	168,000	376,000	1,000,000

Reasons:

- Halo 3 boost wears off in October for 360 - but momentum continues.  Sales won't double in Nov from Oct because the biggest game was released in Sept, and because PS3 becomes $400/$500 (and the $500 version includes a game) November 2.

- PS3 in Nov sees normal 2x sales boosts for holidays, +2x sales boost from price drop.  I may be a bit generous with December - but at $400/$500 PS3 can probably move ~1.2 million units - at least over the holidays (Nov/Dec).  I think sales bottom out around 20k per week when the 60 gig finally runs out, and before the 40 gig is introduced (in other words the 80 gig model becomes the only sku for a few weeks).

- Wii will more than double in November.  Guitar Hero 3/Galaxy/Wiki/Soul Calibur Legends/Mario and Sonic will be meeting the needs of various types of gamers in November.

- DS and PSP and PS2 will more than double in Nov and Dec because they are so damn cheap with such extensive libraries of good games compared to everything else.

- PS3 at $400 can probably outsell PS2...although it will be close and Sony may drop PS2 to $100.  I wouldn't be surprised if Wii sales in Nov+Dec are roughly the same as PS3 sales for 2007

- Guitar Hero 3 should help Wii the most, which is the main reason I have 360 under 600k in November.  It is a good stepping stone up from Wii Sports/Wii Play/etc, and PS2/360 already have a version of Guitar Hero.  At the same time, people who like that kind of game won't spend $400/$500 + the cost of the game to get a PS3 just for this game.