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January NPD 2019

Forums - Sales Discussion - January NPD 2019

zorg1000 said:
chakkra said:

Wait, what??  You do know that those consoles were competing against the PS1 and PS2, right? 


NES+Master System+Atari 7800-~75 million

SNES+Genesis+Turbografx-~90 million

PS1+N64+Saturn-~145 million

PS2+XB+GC+DC-~210 million

Wii+PS3+360-~275 million

His point stands, selling ~50 million in the mid-late 2010s is not the same as selling that amount in the 80s or 90s. It represented a much larger marketshare back then.

Thanks, I was about to run the numbers but now I don't need to.

Bonus: PS4 + Switch + Xbox One at present = 164 million, and PS4 and especially Switch are a long way from done.

So the current gen console audience is already bigger than during the SNES and N64's time and by the time all's said and done will be bigger than the Gamecube's gen as well. As such, it's hardly fair to compare Xbox One's raw numbers to those systems. The Wii U is the only one against which its an even comparison as they launched into the same generation.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 19 February 2019

curl-6 said:
chakkra said:

But they DID reverse its fortune. I mean, taking into account how bad it was at the reveal, this could have a been really a Wii U situation. In fact, given the fact that the MS brand is nowhere near as recognized as Nintendo's worldwide, I would say that the OG X1 had everything to bomb even harder than the Wii U.

And yet, when everything is said and done, the X1 will have outsold 4 out 7 Nintendo's home consoles (not counting VB).  Again, given how strong is Nintendo's brand, can we really consider that as such a bad thing?

Xbone still always had the full backing of all the big third parties, something Nintendo hasn't had since the SNES. The market has also grown massively since those days, back then you could sell 50 million and be market leader, now to do that you need over 100 million.

3 of the 4 Nintendo consoles you describe come from a time when the gaming population was vastly smaller than today, so outselling them in the current gen is not really an achievement.

Ok, let me see if I understand this.  So what you're saying is that without: 

1) Kinect drop 

2) Price cut

3) BC

4)PlayAnywhere

5)Gamespass and

6)X1X

The X1 still would have sold the same thing just because "Xbone still always had the full backing of all the big third parties".  Is that what you´re saying?

And I´m willing to bet that at the end of gen8, the market share of the X1 will be bigger than the marketshare that the N64 and GC had in their respective generations.



chakkra said:
curl-6 said:

Xbone still always had the full backing of all the big third parties, something Nintendo hasn't had since the SNES. The market has also grown massively since those days, back then you could sell 50 million and be market leader, now to do that you need over 100 million.

3 of the 4 Nintendo consoles you describe come from a time when the gaming population was vastly smaller than today, so outselling them in the current gen is not really an achievement.

Ok, let me see if I understand this.  So what you're saying is that without: 

1) Kinect drop 

2) Price cut

3) BC

4)PlayAnywhere

5)Gamespass and

6)X1X

The X1 still would have sold the same thing just because "Xbone still always had the full backing of all the big third parties".  Is that what you´re saying?

And I´m willing to bet that at the end of gen8, the market share of the X1 will be bigger than the marketshare that the N64 and GC had in their respective generations.

No, what I'm saying is the Xbone made no great turnaround, it started off selling at a mediocre level and has continued to sell at a mediocre level.



zorg1000 said:
chakkra said:

Wait, what??  You do know that those consoles were competing against the PS1 and PS2, right? 


NES+Master System+Atari 7800-~75 million

SNES+Genesis+Turbografx-~90 million

PS1+N64+Saturn-~145 million

PS2+XB+GC+DC-~210 million

Wii+PS3+360-~275 million

 

His point stands, selling ~50 million in the mid-late 2010s is not the same as selling that amount in the 80s or 90s. It represented a much larger marketshare back then.

1) I´ll give you that one

2) I´ll give you that one

3) N64 grabbed a 22% marketshare that gen (How they managed to let A NEW GUY to grab the rest of the market will always baffle me)

4) GC grabbed an 11% of marketshare that gen. 

And this is Nintendo we´re talking about.  The oldest and possibly more recognizable brand of them all.



curl-6 said:
chakkra said:

Ok, let me see if I understand this.  So what you're saying is that without: 

1) Kinect drop 

2) Price cut

3) BC

4)PlayAnywhere

5)Gamespass and

6)X1X

The X1 still would have sold the same thing just because "Xbone still always had the full backing of all the big third parties".  Is that what you´re saying?

And I´m willing to bet that at the end of gen8, the market share of the X1 will be bigger than the marketshare that the N64 and GC had in their respective generations.

No, what I'm saying is the Xbone made no great turnaround, it started off selling at a mediocre level and has continued to sell at a mediocre level.

Ok so, just out of curiosity, if MS hadn´t done any of those things.  How much do you think the X1 would have sold?



chakkra said:
curl-6 said:

No, what I'm saying is the Xbone made no great turnaround, it started off selling at a mediocre level and has continued to sell at a mediocre level.

Ok so, just out of curiosity, if MS hadn´t done any of those things.  How much do you think the X1 would have sold?

Impossible to know, but we can say with certainty that none of these measures has saved the system from selling mediocre numbers and being destined to be left behind by both the PS4 and the Switch. 



Mar1217 said:

I'm expecting Switch to be up YoY riding the strong momentum of Smash/Pokémon :

Switch : 275K
PS4 : 190K
Xbone : 100K (Ouchie ouchie !)

Edit :

Oops, didn't know last year was 5 weeks long. Updated my prediction.

WOAH ! My prediction was almost on point ! 



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Mar1217 said:
Mar1217 said:

I'm expecting Switch to be up YoY riding the strong momentum of Smash/Pokémon :

Switch : 275K
PS4 : 190K
Xbone : 100K (Ouchie ouchie !)

Edit :

Oops, didn't know last year was 5 weeks long. Updated my prediction.

WOAH ! My prediction was almost on point ! 

Lol, That's what I wanted to tell you.



chakkra said:
zorg1000 said:


NES+Master System+Atari 7800-~75 million

SNES+Genesis+Turbografx-~90 million

PS1+N64+Saturn-~145 million

PS2+XB+GC+DC-~210 million

Wii+PS3+360-~275 million

 

His point stands, selling ~50 million in the mid-late 2010s is not the same as selling that amount in the 80s or 90s. It represented a much larger marketshare back then.

1) I´ll give you that one

2) I´ll give you that one

3) N64 grabbed a 22% marketshare that gen (How they managed to let A NEW GUY to grab the rest of the market will always baffle me)

4) GC grabbed an 11% of marketshare that gen. 

And this is Nintendo we´re talking about.  The oldest and possibly more recognizable brand of them all.

N64 did mediocre and GC did poorly, how does that support your argument?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 said:
chakkra said:

Ok so, just out of curiosity, if MS hadn´t done any of those things.  How much do you think the X1 would have sold?

Impossible to know, but we can say with certainty that none of these measures has saved the system from selling mediocre numbers and being destined to be left behind by both the PS4 and the Switch. 

But, didn't you know that from the beginning?  I mean, did you really think (even if for a second) that the X1 would ever catch up to the PS4?

Yes, the X1 has sold mediocre numbers, but at least MS has tried.  I mean, they could have done what Nintendo did with the Wii U, you know, just ride it out until they had a new console ready.