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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 49 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - December 3-9, 2018

Miyamotoo said:
Green098 said:

Looks like PS4's 5,000 yen price cut and two free games managed to boost sales as expected, but not enough to bring it up from this time last year.

Yeah, PS4 had big boost but again lower than last year, and this deal was really great, I mean you with this deal saved around 15.000 yen.

50% off, that’s bargain bin/bomba bin territory xD

is Sony had any profit with this?



Miyamotoo said:

I didnt had NSMBU on mind when I said 2D Mario but something like Mario Maker or new 2D Mario game, but NSMBU will also have strong sales and effect in some degree on Switch. DQ11 is a port but will have effect on sales in any case.

If you paid attention lately you would notice that Switch has increasing 3rd party support, most 3rd party decided or to support or to take Switch more seriously this year, and that means we will start seeing more bigger games next year and in 2020. Also Nintendo itself will keep investing in 3rd party exclusives in any case. Despite point that games like Dark Souls, Diablo 3, CrashBandicot...are ports they still have effect in some degree on Switch sales because we talking about great games in any case that now could be played in full handheld mode.

We just got announced MK11, Crash Bandicoot Racing and Marvel Heroes like Switch exclusive, we will have much more of those when we actually get in 2018.

But Switch is changing this, its getting very wide support on market, going from Indies, to A, AA, last gen ports to some AAA games and 3rd party exclusives, and we can expect much more of all that next year.

 

Look on this list will gave you clear picture just how much stronger 2019. currently looks compared to how 2018. looked in same period of last year:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238576&page=1#

MK11, i forgot about that game. See, games like this i meant, i'll give you that with this game. 

But Crash Team Racing won't sell anything close to the PS4 version, and not just because of install base, i can guarantee you that.

Edit: Oh, and i saw that list that other day, and precisely represents what i'm trying to say... There's nothing big or new there.



rodea_sky_soldier said:
Miyamotoo said:

Yeah, PS4 had big boost but again lower than last year, and this deal was really great, I mean you with this deal saved around 15.000 yen.

50% off, that’s bargain bin/bomba bin territory xD

is Sony had any profit with this?

Considering they are selling the slim for 25,000 yen and the Pro for 42,000 yen then yeah, I'd say they easily profit from this.

Especially when you consider the slim is the 500 GB model. If you want the 1 TB (like the Spider-man bundle for Black Friday) you gotta pay 30k yen.



RolStoppable said:
colafitte said:

Nah, you are being subjective. Why should i consider a game costing 1M and generating 10M in sales more succesful than a game costing 10M and generating 50M???, one has 9M profit and the other has 40M. To earn mony you have to spend it first. Don't compare relative success to absolute success.  The only way to reach those levels of profits is spending a lot.

And i'm not asking 1M+ in Japan, but at least some game that reach 200k, 300k, 500k.

I was talking about what it costs to develop and market a game, you are now jumping to profits generated from games and follow it up with the basic statement that I tried to get across. Indeed, to earn money you have to spend it first. That's exactly what third parties have yet to do on Switch.

If you understand that, it's all the more puzzling that we had to have this conversation to begin with. If you still disagree, you are welcome to name examples of Switch third party games where their respective publishers spent big, but didn't get big sales.

Lol, it was you who talked about cost/profits, not me! I was just following your logic....

And why it's me the one who have to prove that second sentence?? I am the one saying there is no third party publishers spending on Switch. That's my point. You are the one who need to prove me wrong. There are no failing games from 3rd party publishers because they're not even trying (and i'm not counting ports).



Train wreck said:
tbone51 said:

This week shouldnt fool you, its a temp price cut sure but its also one right at the start of holidays with 2 free games. I dont think sony going to go that hard next year. Maybe a price cut, im thinking more of 1mil-1.2mil next year. Unless something drastic happens tbh

He means 1.8 for this year and with the sale lasting until January 6th, the 1.8 number is doable.

Oh ok yes. It has a good shot at making it but i think 1.7mil or a bit higher



Great debut for Smash, WW numbers will be insane.



rodea_sky_soldier said:
Miyamotoo said:

Yeah, PS4 had big boost but again lower than last year, and this deal was really great, I mean you with this deal saved around 15.000 yen.

50% off, that’s bargain bin/bomba bin territory xD

is Sony had any profit with this?

The charge much less in the West for their holiday bundles. Japan is paying anywhere from $40-120 more for the same console.

Anyways, great debut for Smash. HW big time up for both Switch and PS4. I hadn't read about their holiday deal, so I was quite surprised to see ~75k.



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RolStoppable said:
colafitte said:

Lol, it was you who talked about cost/profits, not me! I was just following your logic....

And why it's me the one who have to prove that second sentence?? I am the one saying there is no third party publishers spending on Switch. That's my point. You are the one who need to prove me wrong. There are no failing games from 3rd party publishers because they're not even trying (and i'm not counting ports).

Must be the language barrier. You initially said that "Switch is not allowing third parties to flourish," so that implied that third parties have tried, but failed. If your point was all along that third parties aren't spending big on Switch, then your original statement should have been "Third parties aren't allowing themselves to flourish on Switch."

Well, i said that because i felt it was implicit. "Switch as a hardware is not allowing third parties to flourish..." because whatever the reason. In my opinion, and is just that, my opinion, it's because the hardware limitations compared to PS4/XBO put a lot of pressure on 3rd parties to make different games that have to look similar to PS4/XBO relatives, so that's an added effort; Online service not being on par with the other two is a problem too; Nintendo first party games are so good, that other games can't receive the same attention, etc...



Amazing debut for smash, definitely not a niche title anymore (probably since smash 4, even brawl was unknown by so many).
Maybe 5 million debut WW is possible. Switch looking at crazy December sales once again.



Train wreck said:
tbone51 said:

This week shouldnt fool you, its a temp price cut sure but its also one right at the start of holidays with 2 free games. I dont think sony going to go that hard next year. Maybe a price cut, im thinking more of 1mil-1.2mil next year. Unless something drastic happens tbh

He means 1.8 for this year and with the sale lasting until January 6th, the 1.8 number is doable.

Bingo. 

Megiddo said:
1.8 million would require 100k average the last 3 weeks. I don't think that's doable. 1.7 million would be ~67k average and is likely the ceiling. That would leave the PS4 around flat YoY wouldn't it?

Is there not 4 weeks of tracking left? That's what I based my estimate off. 

rodea_sky_soldier said:
Miyamotoo said:

Yeah, PS4 had big boost but again lower than last year, and this deal was really great, I mean you with this deal saved around 15.000 yen.

50% off, that’s bargain bin/bomba bin territory xD

is Sony had any profit with this?

They are only taking in 5000¥ less then normal. The bundled games are first party and digital so cost them nothing. Plus most of them can be bought dirt cheap regularly on sale.