Dark horse? I think everyone knows that it'll be a strong contender so its hardly a dark horse. A dark horse winner would be either a seriously underestimated game blowing everyone away or a completely unknown one launching all of the sudden and doing the same.

CGI: Bioware games have not been seriously underestimated since the Baldur's Gate days, I'd rather say that some of them are overestimated before they launch and a lot of reviewers overlook a lot of problems simply because its Bioware (reviews of ME and Dragon Age showed me as much).
Seriously, everyone and their dog expects ME 2 to;

A: Blow everyone away, me included if they get everything right this time around

B: Be among the strongest candidates for GOTY

In the end though, Starcraft II is still the strongest candidate imo.

I will be one of the best games this year but how often do games released in January get nominated for game year

Stuff like Alan Wake, Splinter Cell: Conviction, Heavy Rain, and Agent would be better described as "dark horse" candidates, if you ask me.

After watching the first 30 mins. AS a fan of all genres I'd say Mass Effect 2 is my front runner. It has for me, the best story in videogame history.

Ok...if those games are well received on the whole, they would be "dark horse" candidates.

I vote none. He may very well be right the game will be awesome no doubt but Pachter is an idiot.

Where's "Yes, but Pachter is an idiot."?

Now, if Pacther had said Bioware and EA regret their exclusive deal with M$, I'd beleive him...but Epic...c'mon...they are the darlings of M$ and Xbox!

I believe that this, GOW3 and Bioshock 2 will make a run for GOTY nods and have higher chances of winning than Halo: Reach, GT5, SMG2, etc.