On the contrary, analytics-noob, vastly higher system installbase + previous Zelda game sold 7m on VERY LITTLE installbase = breaking 10m is nearly guaranteed.

between 7-10 million i think but if i had too chose a solid number id say 8.5

Spirit Tracks is really not selling all that well compared to Phantom Hourglass.. although I think that has a lot to do with PH being disappointing to many people. That may not have anything to do with Zelda Wii because people weren't disappointed with Twilight Princess (well, some were, but most were not.)

@damkira: I may be wrong, but I think Spirit Tracks has a chance to come close to Phantom Hourglass in the long run. It's already at 1.66 million after 5 weeks (PH sold 4.6 million LTD).

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=The+Legend+of+Zelda:+Phantom+Hourglass+-+DS[6790]&reg2=All&game2=The+Legend+of+Zelda:+Spirit+Tracks+-+DS[32942]&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=100 see the tendency

Roflmfao. Wishful thinking. Zelda Wii won't be the only game supporting great motion controls by the time of its release. Phantom Hourglass couldn't even break 5 million on the DS - the system with the largest audience of current gen. Even Wii Sports Resort has only just recently gotten itself in the double-digit millions mark. and mind you that part of Twilight Princess' sales are on the gamecube. Why is this? Because not everyone wants their Zelda with forced new controls.

Zelda has an audience with people who don't buy things like Wii Sports Resort, or at least with people who would say "If I wanted motion controls, I'd go looking for it somewhere else. If I want Zelda, I expect Zelda!"

and to think you suggested 16 million through 18 million? I don't think think so. Zelda will never be that sucessful, as long as its always Zelda. Even if its a hit, its still Zelda, and not everyone is looking for Zelda. Not even Final Fantasy, which is more popular than Zelda. Core franchises like them have their limits, especially when 3D. They aren't accessible enough, even with a fancy new control system.

10 million is possible to achieve, but unlikely - and thats just 10 million. You should watch yourself, otherwise Zelda Wii's sales are going to come as a huge shock to you when it releases. I'd spare yourself the disappointment.

I think it has the potential to reach 8-9 million sales. There's a lot of built up hyped for this game already, and almost nothing is known about it, and I think the motion plus will be a major selling point.

Um..isn't Spirit Tracks beating Phantom Hourglass so far? Correct me if I'm wrong. Spirit Tracks is on its 5th week right now, right? If you compare its first 5 weeks vs Phantom Hourglasses in america and others, Spirit Tracks has sold more so far.

Edit: Actually, it seems like its a little less than in others so far..well, its still above PH in America so far. From what I can tell, anyway.

5 to 6 milllions.

At least i hope so.

I agree with Fazz.

Considering Twilight Princess was a launch title it sold very well.

Now with a "billion" wiis in households worldwide anything less than 10m will be a surprise.

OoT didn't had the userbase that the wii have.

A good measuring stick will be SMG2. If the second release zooms past the first then zelda should do likewise.

Don't underestimate Nintendo this gen.