I'm a big HD gamer. More than most people on this site who don't even own non-HD consoles. That said, the recent attitude gamers and a few pubs seem to have that implies HD is a garaunteed formula for success completely confounds me. So here are some games to remind you of what can happen in HD development, specifically picked from 2 publishers who've been very vocal on the subject recently.
Note: it's been said an HD game needs well over .8 million units to break even on an average core game, implying that even 1 million units would only yeild a marginal profit. source
Ubisoft:
Enchanted Arms - .38 million units
Vlevet Assassin - .09 million units
Call of Juarez (original, not Bound in Blood) - .25 million units
James Cameron's Ego, er.. Avatar - .57 million units
Naruto: Rise of a Ninja - .32 million units
Beowulf: The Game - .5 million units
HAWX - .84 million units
Naruto: The Broken Bond - .55 million units
Sega:
Sonic the Hedgehog - .97 million units (note almost half of these were at a price of $40 or less, i.e. no profit/no loss sales)
Virtua Fighter 5 - .73 million units
Universe at War - .07 million units
Phantasy Stary Universe - .10 million units
Virtua Tennis 2009 - .51 million units
Golden Axe: Beast Rider - .22 million units
The Club - .39 million units
Armored Core 4 - .42 million units
Armored Core For Answer - .25 million units
Viking: Battle for Asgard - .69 million units
Condemned - .47 million units
Condemned 2 - .79 million units
And just for a kicker, the infamous massive budget Capcom game, Bionic Commando - .37 million units.
The point is this: Games bomb. Mostly bad games, some really good games, but regardless they bomb on all platforms, and it always hurts developers when it happens. This is not a defense of the Wii, or an attack on HD systems. It's a defense of reality.I don't beleive there is any evidence that the Wii is a more viable or stable market solution than HD. Every game should be taken as an individual, with individual chances of success or failure almost completely exclusive of the platform that game is on (aside from obviously needing a certain base amount of potential consumers).