The only way I can see that happening at this point is if Wii Vitality is a new phenomenom like Wii Sports or Wii Fit and brings in a new segment of the public to the games market.

Since we know all of nothing as to what it'll do exactly or the games that will use it I'm certainly not going to predict it'll happen.

I don't see it happening at all while PS3 and 360 are both still selling.

At this point in the generation, it's essentially become irrelevant beyond being entertaining (for those with an unusual sense of entertainment) to watch numbers and make more educated guesses.

There won't be any major parity shift when it comes to market share. I'm not of the notion that Natal will be a complete game changer although the potential is there if it were everything and more that the E3 hype made it out to be and all major third party developers jumped on board with their best efforts.

Sony continues to gain (minor) market share in 2010 by merit of maintaining stronger YoY sales, more accessible price, established library (two main things against the platform previously) and working from the bottom position which always makes it easier to gain share, assuming sales aren't already on a downward trend.

But one of the main reasons so many were focusing on Wii market share was under the now false notion that capturing over half the overall console market share would lead to a magical turning point at which third party developers would "see the light" "take financial responsibility for their shareholders" "lead develop for the Wii or go out of business" etc, none of which have applied in reality.

The reality is many of the attempts to test the waters of the Wii market by third parties have been lackluster at best and if anything, core support may well pull back (Capcom, Sega) moving into the future.

At this point, another Zelda or Metroid game is not going to sell millions of consoles. Mario Galaxy 2 has the potential of being a true hardware mover, but beyond that, 2010 is most likely going to be very much status-quo for the Wii in terms of sales trends keeping that number hovering around 50% or less.

It's irrelevant now but it'll happen eventually. I'd like to be optimistic and say it will by the end of the year, but I don't know enough to judge how the second half of the year will go for Wii.

I don't think they can make a bigger diference. It would be good enough to keep the actual share. That is actually a huge challenge and would also be a huge accomplishment.

i don't see it happening ever... wii sell well because of wii motion and mario games (between some other things but not as important) ... the early adopters of wii motion are all in, the mario fans with the release of nsmb wii are all in too... its not mario galaxy 2 that is going to suddenly wake mario fans that still sleep under the game cube... the vitality sensor must be huge like wii motion to bring a all NEW wave of buyers... with this in mind i have no doubt that nint is going to make their users happy this year... but bring allot of new users to nint its allot harder in this part of the current generation then last year...

Not placing any stock in the vitality sensor being game changer. We could see real clever applications of it, but then again, we've had about a year of Motion Plus and it's not like that managed to take the Wii to 50% either.

Personally, I'm inclined to think the sensor will mainly end up being used in conjunction with fitness games to gauge player vitals and cardio fitness over time. Useful, but not something that's going to sell millions more consoles like Wii Fit/Balance Board.

Nintendo could get 50% of this happens:

Endless Ocean Blue World
Sin And Punishment 2
Poke Park Wii Pikachu's Big Adventure
Super Mario Galaxy 2
Metroid Other M
Pikmin 3
Zelda Wii(2)
Star Fox Wii
Vitality Sensor Game(s)

I think that Pikmin 3, Star Fox Wii and Zelda Wii(2) could all use Motion Plus which could make Motion Plus more popular and get people both "Core" and non "core" to buy a Wii since they are classic(Core) games but they all use Motion Plus(Not Core). With that said I think all 3 of those games will sell more Wii consoles than Mario and Metroid.

Also it will depend on if the V.S is popular which I think it will be and I have high hopes for the possible next Balence Board. I think that they could make either Wii Relax or maybe even Wii Fear or both. I mean it can read paulse right?

It would also require high profile games from the Party 3's which I do think is possible that maybe they are finally getting the picture and how to make a good Wii game. For example, Capcom makes a real R.E insted of R.E.T.D.C!

All in all I think that it could happen.

Vitality sensor could really turn this year around to Nintendo's advantage big time. I think that's the biggest potential for success this year for the Wii, but the likelihood of this is impossible to predict at this stage.

NSMBW will continue to boost the Wii for a while, Mario Galaxy 2 will probably have little effect, perculiarly I think Metroid other M could have more of an impact on sales considering the approach they are taking with this game, and Zelda Wii would put up great competition against titles on other consoles although I don't know if it would push that many Wiis. No idea when it comes to third-party efforts, Monster Hunter 3 could be a hit... and then of course there is Epic Mickey - another wild card as I see it.

Basically if PS3 Wand = mediocre, Project Natal = flop, and Vitality Sensor = success, this will be an outstanding year for the Wii.*

Certainly possible, but no one could tell you how likely it is right now.

(*Of course when I say 'outstanding year for the Wii' I mean just that, an outstanding year FOR THE WII - relative to its own consistent success so far.)

Not really, looking unlikely