At this point in the generation, it's essentially become irrelevant beyond being entertaining (for those with an unusual sense of entertainment) to watch numbers and make more educated guesses.
There won't be any major parity shift when it comes to market share. I'm not of the notion that Natal will be a complete game changer although the potential is there if it were everything and more that the E3 hype made it out to be and all major third party developers jumped on board with their best efforts.
Sony continues to gain (minor) market share in 2010 by merit of maintaining stronger YoY sales, more accessible price, established library (two main things against the platform previously) and working from the bottom position which always makes it easier to gain share, assuming sales aren't already on a downward trend.
But one of the main reasons so many were focusing on Wii market share was under the now false notion that capturing over half the overall console market share would lead to a magical turning point at which third party developers would "see the light" "take financial responsibility for their shareholders" "lead develop for the Wii or go out of business" etc, none of which have applied in reality.
The reality is many of the attempts to test the waters of the Wii market by third parties have been lackluster at best and if anything, core support may well pull back (Capcom, Sega) moving into the future.
At this point, another Zelda or Metroid game is not going to sell millions of consoles. Mario Galaxy 2 has the potential of being a true hardware mover, but beyond that, 2010 is most likely going to be very much status-quo for the Wii in terms of sales trends keeping that number hovering around 50% or less.
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