Vitality sensor could really turn this year around to Nintendo's advantage big time. I think that's the biggest potential for success this year for the Wii, but the likelihood of this is impossible to predict at this stage.
NSMBW will continue to boost the Wii for a while, Mario Galaxy 2 will probably have little effect, perculiarly I think Metroid other M could have more of an impact on sales considering the approach they are taking with this game, and Zelda Wii would put up great competition against titles on other consoles although I don't know if it would push that many Wiis. No idea when it comes to third-party efforts, Monster Hunter 3 could be a hit... and then of course there is Epic Mickey - another wild card as I see it.
Basically if PS3 Wand = mediocre, Project Natal = flop, and Vitality Sensor = success, this will be an outstanding year for the Wii.*
Certainly possible, but no one could tell you how likely it is right now.
(*Of course when I say 'outstanding year for the Wii' I mean just that, an outstanding year FOR THE WII - relative to its own consistent success so far.)
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