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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the ps3 outsell the wii in japan 2010? and by how much?

 

Will the ps3 outsell the wii in japan 2010? and by how much?

Yes, by a lot! 38 9.84%
 
Yes, by a little 80 20.73%
 
No, by a little 110 28.50%
 
No, by a lot! 158 40.93%
 
Total:386
Carl on 05 January 2010
saicho said:
Carl2291 said:
saicho said:
Carl2291 said:
jarrod said:
Carl2291 said:

It got close this year despite basicly abysmal sales earlier in the year... And Wii is on a downwards trend in Japan, with AFAIK... No big games in Q1/Q2.

I think Galaxy 2 is going to be their Golden Week game.  It's an easy 800k+, which may rival PS3's biggest games for the year (GT5, Versus).

Maybe. Maybe not... The question is, does another 3D Mario game have system selling potential in Japan?

The same thing can be said about Yakuza 4 and Versus. GT5 is an unknown but would it really lift PS3 more than FFXIII + redesign plus price cut?

PS3 has a good first half last year with some big releases (RE5, Yakuza 3) then build the momentum in the fall with redesign and pricecut and keep it going til the end of the year with FFXIII. Assuming Yakuza 4 and GT5 (plus all the smaller games) would help PS3 in the first half of 2010, and Versus (if released) would keep PS3 going at the end of the year. What can Sony do in the fall 2010 that would have the same effect as redesign plus pricecut in 2009? I don't see any game that can do it. I don't think another price cut would be as effective. Another redesign?

True it can. While Yakuza 4, Versus 13 and even as you say, Gran Turismo 5 are very much in the same boat as SMG2... The fact is there are 3 of them to 1 SMG2... That's the point im making about lineup.

As for later in the year... Japan very much like new colours. And Q4 2010 would IMO be the perfect time to release PS3 colours.

no matter how much Japanese love new colours, it will not have the same impact as a resign plus pricecut. GEM could be a factor, but right now we have not seen an original game that uses it. Is RE5:AE really enough to get more people to buy PS3?

Also, even without big releases in Q1, Wii will do better than Q1 last year in Japan. Possiblely Q2 as well. I'm not sure what "downward trend" you are seeing.

It still provides a boost though. Even if it isn't as big as the redesign/cut... Make it with some exclusive bundles of certain games, and they are onto a winner.

Probably. But by how much is unknown.

Downward trend = 2007 > 2008 > 2009... > 2010?



                            

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Arius Dion on 05 January 2010

No, by a lot. A redesign, a 100$ price cut, FFXIII and the weakest year for Wii ever in Japan and PS3 still lost out to Wii. Momentum is now with the Wii and this may have been PS3's peak yr in Japan. FF boost is all but a memory while the NSMB boost will be a much longer burner.



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

Raze on 05 January 2010

Im going to have to say no, for reasons mentioned by Arius above. Plus there is a solid chance of Zelda Wii hitting the stores by next December, which will undo the PS3's biggest hitter for 2010.



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Hero_time88 on 05 January 2010
jarrod said:
 

Naw, Wii has Jan in the bag.  Sustained NSMBWii sales alone pretty much ensure that.  Plus RE DSC is a bigger release than anything on PS3 for the period (including Ar Tonelico 3 and Last Rebellion, neither of which will crack 100k).


You think that RE DSC will do better than End of Eternity?

Last Rebellion will probably just like Trinity Universe bomb, but I think that a 3D Ar Tonelico game could just like a 3D Atelier actually outsell the previous 2D entry.

3D=more mainstream.

EoE and SO: TLH could hurt it's sales though, especially the last one's which also appeals to Otaku JRPG fans.



Acevil on 05 January 2010
Hero_time88 said:
jarrod said:
 

Naw, Wii has Jan in the bag.  Sustained NSMBWii sales alone pretty much ensure that.  Plus RE DSC is a bigger release than anything on PS3 for the period (including Ar Tonelico 3 and Last Rebellion, neither of which will crack 100k).


You think that RE DSC will do better than End of Eternity?

Last Rebellion will probably just like Trinity Universe bomb, but I think that a 3D Ar Tonelico game could just like a 3D Atelier actually outsell the previous 2D entry.

3D=more mainstream.

EoE and SO: TLH could hurt it's sales though, especially the last one's which also appeals to Otaku JRPG fans.


In Japan, I don't know if 3D is more mainstream.



 

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Demotruk on 05 January 2010

No, and I'm willing to bet. Wii will have at least 33% more sales than PS3 in 2010.

Momentum in the first quarter, maybe the second, will be carried by NSMB, and I'm sure Nintendo's games will be enough to keep it ahead in the second half of the year.



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Hero_time88 on 05 January 2010

It pretty much depends on who performs better during the december month.

The Wii probably would have lost this year if hadn't been for NSMB: Wii, and a Animal Crossing or Mario Galaxy type system seller would have been in it's place, although some won't admit it.

The only real predictions that I can make right now are those:

January = Wii locked
February/ March= PS3 locked 

Soriku said:


Inazuma Eleven Break, MH3G, probably a DQ remake/spinoff, then , Zelda (maybe)


Assumption after assumption...



Aion on 05 January 2010

No the wii will outsell it this gen.



 

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Mr. sickVisionz on 05 January 2010
Gearbox said:

as you all know 2009 is over, and the wii once again sold the most units in japan, but the ps3 came really close! So who here thinks the ps3 will outsell the wii in japan in 2010, or will the wii sales go up?

discusssss 

I voted no and by a lot.  

How on Earth is getting outsold by more than a 2:1 ratio coming really close?



Innervate on 05 January 2010

Like others have said, Wii at its worst still outsold the PS3 when it was at its best. I'm sorry, but it's an obvious 'no'. Another price drop this year is a bit unrealistic (they are still losing money on the hardware), they only have one announced software that pushes hardware (GT5) and Nintendo is doing a lot better than last year. The PS3 beating the Wii is just wishful thinking.