I think the Wii is going to make it, but I cannot imagine by how far it´ll do so. Waron had a good point about the software lineup of 09, and even if we don´t really know the complete lineups for each console for 2010, I think there will be more games for the Wii this year. Sure, the PS3 will have GT5 and God of War 3, but the Wii might have DQ10 this year maybe alongside some remakes beginning with part 7, galaxy 2, Zelda Wii 2, Pikmin 3, a new DK, new games of the Wii series, not to mention new colours and maybe finally a Player´s Choice series )Imagine a re-release of Wii Fit as a stand-alone product). In addition, NSMB will very likely move hardware for a long time.

The same thing can be said about Yakuza 4 and Versus. GT5 is an unknown but would it really lift PS3 more than FFXIII + redesign plus price cut?

PS3 has a good first half last year with some big releases (RE5, Yakuza 3) then build the momentum in the fall with redesign and pricecut and keep it going til the end of the year with FFXIII. Assuming Yakuza 4 and GT5 (plus all the smaller games) would help PS3 in the first half of 2010, and Versus (if released) would keep PS3 going at the end of the year. What can Sony do in the fall 2010 that would have the same effect as redesign plus pricecut in 2009? I don't see any game that can do it. I don't think another price cut would be as effective. Another redesign?

Yes, by a little. I expect PS3 to continue increasing their sales YOY.

I think people here should make bets!

Nope. it had it chance this year like PSP had chance to beat DS in 2008. Without NSMB Wii PS3 would have probably sold more because NSMB Wii truly seems to be system seller game. PSP also would have sold more than DS in 2008 but DSi made that threat empty.

True it can. While Yakuza 4, Versus 13 and even as you say, Gran Turismo 5 are very much in the same boat as SMG2... The fact is there are 3 of them to 1 SMG2... That's the point im making about lineup.

As for later in the year... Japan very much like new colours. And Q4 2010 would IMO be the perfect time to release PS3 colours.

I'm going with no by a lot. Nintendo already proved that they could sell a lot of Wii systems in a single year in Japan, but then let the support fall to the wayside. With NSMBWii, and a few key games they can easily swing the momentum back in their favor.

The PS3 has done it's best so far (in Japan) and is currently riding a high off a price cut, new model, and FFXIII. So, while sales could go up, I believe Nintendo has the larger potential.

Obviously it could go either way, but only if Nintendo continues to drop the ball.

EDIT:

ok, I put together this table, to help show how Nintendo first off dropped the ball, and second off seems to be on a recovery path (if they do things right). If you look at the yearly totals, 09 for PS3 was a nice increase, but still lower than the Wii. The Wii has dropped since 07 with a weak late 08 and early 09 lineup. But if you look at the monthly totals you'll see A nice increase YoY for Wii (and PS3). If you look at November sales, the Wii was behind PS3 in 09. So, while close, I think Nintendo can gain back to the 2.8m level and possibly higher, while the PS3 I sort of expect to match 09 levels. Of course, the PS3 could beat 2m units next year, but 2.8m for the PS3 just seems like a rather large stretch.

No, and by a lot. They have already gotten a Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy, and a Yakuza. So I really don't see them coming anywhere near the Wii.

@Carl

Nintendo can add new colors just as easily as Sony :P, and they could probably lower the price again if needed

no matter how much Japanese love new colours, it will not have the same impact as a resign plus pricecut. GEM could be a factor, but right now we have not seen an original game that uses it. Is RE5:AE really enough to get more people to buy PS3?

Also, even without big releases in Q1, Wii will do better than Q1 last year in Japan. Possiblely Q2 as well. I'm not sure what "downward trend" you are seeing.

I said "No, by a lot."

The FFXIII boost is all but gone in a week or two, which certainly pushed many consoles up to that point. On the other hand, NSMB Wii will keep on chugging, selling systems in the process. Hell, it'll probably sell close to what GT5 will in 2010 alone.

As it's starting the year with its first price cut and NSMB Wii, it should remain relatively close to PS3 sales until around Q3. Wii Vitality and whatever else Nintendo has for the holidays will have the Wii win Q4 by a pretty large margin, as the console leader normally does (without an FF in the way, that is).