I'm going with no by a lot. Nintendo already proved that they could sell a lot of Wii systems in a single year in Japan, but then let the support fall to the wayside. With NSMBWii, and a few key games they can easily swing the momentum back in their favor.
The PS3 has done it's best so far (in Japan) and is currently riding a high off a price cut, new model, and FFXIII. So, while sales could go up, I believe Nintendo has the larger potential.
Obviously it could go either way, but only if Nintendo continues to drop the ball.
EDIT:
ok, I put together this table, to help show how Nintendo first off dropped the ball, and second off seems to be on a recovery path (if they do things right). If you look at the yearly totals, 09 for PS3 was a nice increase, but still lower than the Wii. The Wii has dropped since 07 with a weak late 08 and early 09 lineup. But if you look at the monthly totals you'll see A nice increase YoY for Wii (and PS3). If you look at November sales, the Wii was behind PS3 in 09. So, while close, I think Nintendo can gain back to the 2.8m level and possibly higher, while the PS3 I sort of expect to match 09 levels. Of course, the PS3 could beat 2m units next year, but 2.8m for the PS3 just seems like a rather large stretch.
| 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | |
| Wii | 958,199 | 3,677,579 | 2,888,251 | 1,987,526 |
| PS3 | 472,605 | 1,218,612 | 1,000,838 | 1,795,568 |
| Dec-06 | Dec-07 | Dec-08 | Dec-09 | |
| Wii | 595,607 | 690,115 | 568,178 | 687,509 |
| PS3 | 275,038 | 205,895 | 211,466 | 522,901 |
