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Forums - Sales Discussion - How Big Will NSMB Wii Be? Possibly 9 Million Before the End of the Year?

ganondorf7799 said:
KingKold said:
That reminds me....
I picked the game up 3 days ago, and still havent opened it.
Its still in the car...

Bring it back,you don't deserve it ;)

LOL :)

yeah, I know.

But in my defence, I spent a whole day trying to find a store that had stock (everything was sold out everywhere i went),

and then finally, the next day (sunday mind you) I finally managed to get one. Was too tired by the time I got home. Then work the next day, never really got a chance to try it out. But Today's the day...:)



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Khuutra said:
Man remember at E3 when everyone was so underwhelmed by this game?

When they thought it wouldn't be a success?

There were those who said this day would never come - what have they to say now?

Hey, my only complaint is that multiplayer platformers rarely work out. As a platformer this game is unplayab;e with 4 players. As a reason to want to kick you friends in the nuts it is amazingly fun though. I didn't see that coming.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

Alright time for an update. After "Week 2" (week ending Dec 19), New Super Mario Bros is currently at 6.68 million which falls near the higher range I proposed. Most of that is due to Japan way exceeding numbers and then being evened out by Europe/other under performing vastly with my expectations. Americas seems to be hitting the middle ground probably due to shortages more than likely. Can look at the front post for the comparisons from estimates to the actual numbers.

What we are looking at is the game will easily surpass the 8 million mark with ease. Right now 8.5 million is also looking pretty strong by the end of the year with these last 2 weeks. 9 million is still a longshot as I've always stated it would be but not impossible. Because the majority of America seems to be on shipment to shipment basis, drop in sales may not be that steep. Same can probably be said about Japan which could easily sell another 750k-1000k in the last 2 weeks. Europe/Other seems to be the only region that isn't putting up big numbers which I'm not too worried about. Might just sell consistently for long periods of time rather than being explosive and consistent like in Japan and Americas. Game is still topping the charts in all the regions in Europe so I'd expect the next 2 weeks sales to be great as well, bar any shortages.

As for other comparisons, this game has skyrocketed way higher than the PS3 version of Modern Warfare 2. The 360 version is currently at 7.83 million and NSMB Wii outsold the game last week by almost a million units cuttin gthe gamp to only 1.15 million units. Although I don't expect it to outsell it by almost a million in "Week 3" or this current week, I do expect it to cut it by another 500k-750k. In comparison to the fastest selling game ever, GTA: SA in 5 weeks sold about 7.09 million and Modern Warfare 2 360 sold 7.24 million. If sales are over 1.2 million in "Week 3" or this current week then it will be the fastest selling game ever after 6 weeks. Fastest selling game to 10 million ever is of course GTA: San Andreas which did it in 9 weeks. MW2 360 doesn't have much of a chance to accomplish this but NSMB Wii still has an outside shot but more than likely will hit it withing 10-13 weeks. Here is the comparison chart:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros.+Wii+-+Wii[35076]&reg2=All&game2=Grand+Theft+Auto%3A+San+Andreas+-+PS2[3427]&reg3=All&game3=Call+of+Duty%3A+Modern+Warfare+2+-+X360[28848]&weeks=15


So far so good with this game and definitely something that will be very interesting to keep watching.



Another mini update. Japan preview is in and we have numbers at over 500k for "week 3" or (week ending Dec 26 or Dec 27 in Japan). Attach rate in Japan for the game is now over 25% which is simply incredible as the game will be nearing the 2.5 million mark after last week. American sales will more than likely remain strong and potentially flat if supply could keep up. Probably will see a drop in the European regions though. Going to be a strong week though with the potential of the game going over 8 million after last week's numbers are in.



Alright time for some bragging rights. Will update the OP at another time because it is 3 in the morning but after "week 3" or week ending December 26, 2009, the game's current sales at 8.20 million. Once again sales are in the highest part of my range. On another note, in 6 weeks sales time the game has not only surpassed MW2 360 in the same timeframe but Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas on the PS2 as well. Can check that out with this chart:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros.+Wii+-+Wii[35076]&reg2=All&game2=Grand+Theft+Auto%3A+San+Andreas+-+PS2[3427]&reg3=All&game3=Call+of+Duty%3A+Modern+Warfare+2+-+X360[28848]&weeks=15

That means in that timeframe this is the fastest selling game EVER. How long can it maintain that... well will easily continue to outperform MW2 on the 360 but GTA: SA is about to hit a holiday season on its chart. But goal for NSMB Wii of course would be to hit 10 million within 9 weeks to break that record, held by GTA: SA.

Other goals for NSMB Wii of course is the 9 million I said as a possibility. Would need to sell 800,000 in "week 4" or the week ending January 2, 2010 the last week of 2009. The Source has stated preliminary numbers in Japan to be at about 200k (shortages) so it would need to do 600k between the E/O and Americas... very doable. Also game is looking to pass up MW2 360 WW before the end of the year which it would need to outsell the game by 200k in that week (probably just accomplished that in Japan alone).

Game has definitely been just as big as I expected it with even a little higher range. Seems that at the end of the year sales will end up at about 8.8-9.0 million which is just amazing for 7 weeks of sales. Despite being one of the last games to release in the decade, it has just asserted itself as one of the biggest, if not the biggest in the decade when you look at it's sales.



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You have done well so far, Zucas. And Mario just entered its 6th million selling week. I'm not sure any game ever managed that.

It will probably beat Modern Warfare 2 (360) worldwide next week, and you'll end up very close with your original prediction.



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killergran- well to be fair I only stated 9 million as a possibility but my original prediction was about 8.3 million. So even I'm getting owned but I was right that 9 million wasn't only a possibility but maybe a reality.

However, glad to see I'll be right that it'll take over MW2 360 WW before the end of the year.



Wow, this thread earns you a friend request!



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With the latest adjustment, it looks like it could exceed your high end predictions.



Paul- yea was just about to post that. Yep due to a recent adjustment based on a Nintendo press release the game is currently at 8.61 million units. Seems that it'll hit 9 million and a hell of a lot more before the end of the year. Congrats everyone.