Alright time for an update. After "Week 2" (week ending Dec 19), New Super Mario Bros is currently at 6.68 million which falls near the higher range I proposed. Most of that is due to Japan way exceeding numbers and then being evened out by Europe/other under performing vastly with my expectations. Americas seems to be hitting the middle ground probably due to shortages more than likely. Can look at the front post for the comparisons from estimates to the actual numbers.
What we are looking at is the game will easily surpass the 8 million mark with ease. Right now 8.5 million is also looking pretty strong by the end of the year with these last 2 weeks. 9 million is still a longshot as I've always stated it would be but not impossible. Because the majority of America seems to be on shipment to shipment basis, drop in sales may not be that steep. Same can probably be said about Japan which could easily sell another 750k-1000k in the last 2 weeks. Europe/Other seems to be the only region that isn't putting up big numbers which I'm not too worried about. Might just sell consistently for long periods of time rather than being explosive and consistent like in Japan and Americas. Game is still topping the charts in all the regions in Europe so I'd expect the next 2 weeks sales to be great as well, bar any shortages.
As for other comparisons, this game has skyrocketed way higher than the PS3 version of Modern Warfare 2. The 360 version is currently at 7.83 million and NSMB Wii outsold the game last week by almost a million units cuttin gthe gamp to only 1.15 million units. Although I don't expect it to outsell it by almost a million in "Week 3" or this current week, I do expect it to cut it by another 500k-750k. In comparison to the fastest selling game ever, GTA: SA in 5 weeks sold about 7.09 million and Modern Warfare 2 360 sold 7.24 million. If sales are over 1.2 million in "Week 3" or this current week then it will be the fastest selling game ever after 6 weeks. Fastest selling game to 10 million ever is of course GTA: San Andreas which did it in 9 weeks. MW2 360 doesn't have much of a chance to accomplish this but NSMB Wii still has an outside shot but more than likely will hit it withing 10-13 weeks. Here is the comparison chart:
http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros.+Wii+-+Wii[35076]®2=All&game2=Grand+Theft+Auto%3A+San+Andreas+-+PS2[3427]®3=All&game3=Call+of+Duty%3A+Modern+Warfare+2+-+X360[28848]&weeks=15
So far so good with this game and definitely something that will be very interesting to keep watching.
Essay Pro