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Forums - Sales Discussion - How Big Will NSMB Wii Be? Possibly 9 Million Before the End of the Year?

Khuutra on 22 December 2009
Mr.Awsome said:
Khuutra said:
Mr.Awsome said:

well, if it hits 11 mil before november 15th, then you win and we can start there. otherwise we are going to have to wait until that week.

Okay. How about you put the bet in your sig? That way we won't forget.

alright i will n stuff n shit. may i remind you that only 2 games this entire decade have been able to achieve such a feat.

....Angrypoolman?

Edit: Roger wilco, Zucas



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Mr.Awsome on 22 December 2009

great im screwed



Khuutra on 22 December 2009

Regardless, yeha. I wonder when we'll see the first week of drop-off in Others.



Zucas on 22 December 2009
Khuutra said:
Regardless, yeha. I wonder when we'll see the first week of drop-off in Others.

Well it'll probably be this current week, or next week's sales data, when we'll see a drop in Others sales.  Just how much is the question.  It's been a pretty consistent seller there for the holidays indeed. 

But it will happen.  In the long term, E/O sales are the only one I'm really curious about when it comes to long-term sales.  But I think it can have sales trends similar to that of Mario Kart Wii in the region.



Pineapple on 22 December 2009
Mr.Awsome said:
Khuutra said:
Mr.Awsome said:
Khuutra said:
Mr.Awsome said:

lol. whatever you say, khuutra. you obviously know what youre talking about.

Okay, okay, I'll take the bet. Sig control for a month. What are the specific terms, here?

well, if it hits 11 mil before november 15th, then you win and we can start there. otherwise we are going to have to wait until that week.

Okay. How about you put the bet in your sig? That way we won't forget.

alright i will n stuff n shit. may i remind you that only 2 games this entire decade have been able to achieve such a feat.

This is incorrect. Or well, flawed at the very least.

All of the following titles made it from the initial launch.

Mario Kart Wii - 15 million

Wii Sports - 12.6 million

Grand Theft Auto IV (Ps360): 12.6 million

Grand Theft Auto:San Andras (Ps2)-  12.15 million

Modern Warfare 2: 12 million (in 6 weeks) (Ps360)

Call of Duty 4 (Ps360): 11.1 million

 

Wii Fit did, in reality, make it too. It had a staggered launch with 6 months in difference between Japan and the rest of the world. If you're to use it as an indicator, this is bigger than Mario Kart Wii. You're cherry picking if you claim this didn't make it.

 

You can claim that multiplats are unfair, but I think that's silly. NSMB Wii has a larger userbase than they launched on, and less competition. It's also looking at a similarily large launch (launch counted as the first few weeks, not just the first week). 

 

Additionally, Wii Sports Resort is certain to make it in around 33 weeks from initial launch.

 



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Arius Dion on 22 December 2009

All I keep seeing is Rol's Sig about how NSMB Wii Will be gigantic (but he spelled it with a capital G). I thought this would sell like MK Wii, in terms of being a long term seller. But this has really out done my predictions.

Nintendo wanted this and WSR to do what 10m before the fiscal year in march?



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

killeryoshis on 22 December 2009

Uh guys Mr.Awsome is Angrypoolman's alt account and well yeah
http://www.vgchartz.com/profiles/profile.php?id=11315



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SaviorX on 22 December 2009
killeryoshis said:
Uh guys Mr.Awsome is Angrypoolman's alt account and well yeah
http://www.vgchartz.com/profiles/profile.php?id=11315

Guess he finally got caught out LOL

Anyways, I said NSMB Wii will be at 7.6m by January 5th, ut know that just looks like poppycock, and it will be closer to 8.6m



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

c0rd on 22 December 2009
Zucas said:
psrock said:
No one should ever doubt the power of a 2d Mario, I did, i look stupid for doing so. I am just impress how well this game has done. A real system seller and the funny thing is 2 years from now, it will be selling great. Just insane.

Bravo Nintendo.

Well I think Nintendo had us all under estimating.  Even some of the highest predictions was only about 6 million by the end of the year.  So really I think this is more or less just performing on a level that none of us could have ever expected.  Reminds me of Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games when we thought their 4 million projection was ludacris and now it is almost at 12 million with a sequel over 3 million.  So with that and apparently this, we were all just taken back and surprised of how big of a breakout hit this game actually is.  Only one who doesn't seem to be surprised is Nintendo themselves. 

But yea 2D Mario is defintely something else it seems.  I had really never thought of the difference being too much, but apparently I was completely wrong in that aspect as it seems 2D Mario is where the heart of the franchise is at.  This game has just been able to hit mainstream appeal of not only the gamers of old, but new gamers, young gamers, old gamers, etc.  Everyone just wants to play Mario at his best. 

Hrm, I don't think it was that low. Just ran into an earlier post that reminded me (ha). America and Others are more or less selling around expectations (America slightly higher, Others not so). Remember, many people were already expecting Mario Kart-like sales, and in the equivalent time span, that game did 4 million (when it was 30+ weeks old). Tack on launch sales and Japan, 7-8 million sounded reachable.

Japan, on the other hand, has completely blown away all our expectations. I mean, seriously, I had thought Wii Sports or Wii Fit were as big as it gets. To think it'll become the best selling console game since the original SMB is just insane, considering how handhelds seem to have taken over the country. Shit, 540k for week 3, still blows my mind. That's definitely where most of the difference comes from, IMO.

... Unless this week proves me wrong, that is!



Khuutra on 22 December 2009

Man remember at E3 when everyone was so underwhelmed by this game?

When they thought it wouldn't be a success?

There were those who said this day would never come - what have they to say now?