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Forums - Sales - Pachter : I'm TROUBLED by Lackluster Uncharted 2 SALES!

papflesje on 14 December 2009
darthdevidem01 said:
psrock said:
darthdevidem01 said:
psrock said:
darthdevidem01 said:
CGI-Quality said:
So darth, buddy , are you saying that you don't believe that Uncharted 2 is at 1.98mill right now?

nope & on good old VGChartz thats called "hating" uncharted 2

 

Alright, let give the game is overtracked.

imagine it is 1.7million

1. the game hasnt been heavily bundled yet like the first one

2. Still selling close or above 100k a week.

We still get 2 million this year.

3. I do believe a lot of people who saved their cash to get MWF2 will pickup it later on.

4. Showing better legs than Uncharted......

1. I do not count bundles in my prediction as I can't assume they will happen

2. duh

3. I believe people saved their cash to get MWF2 & will pick up Assassins Creed 2 later on....both statements are anecdotal

4. Ofcourse it is in the holiday weeks, but one we get past the new year things won't be so rosy & for now we can assume it won't be bundled

Finally tell me how am I hating on the game?

It's going to be hilarious when it pass the first one early next year. You have been wrong about this game yet you refuse to let go, and to further the cause, questioning VGCHARTZ numbers which is maybe just 89k difference.

 

 

VGChartz has it at 881K for that period (from launch to week ending 28 November)

take away 81K (10% for canada_ & we get around 800K

NPD has it as 650K

so thats 250K overtracked possibly

so once again lets assume it get to 2 Million easily

After that it will have to sell around 800K to outsell Uncharted 1

to outsell it by "early 2010"...so thats the first 3 months it would need to sell 61K a week

800 - 650 =/= 250 darth :p



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Alic0004 on 14 December 2009

800K - 650k = 150k

the math they teach kids these days :P


I think the most remarkable thing about this thread is that we're using a Pachter quote to challange VGC's numbers.  Groundbreaking stuff.



 

richardhutnik on 14 December 2009
Kenology said:
Majin-Tenshinhan said:
They are great sales, no doubt, but given it's critical acclaim it deserves even better. I think that's what Pachter means, too.

Uncharted 2 is the media darling at the moment.  Not only because it's a great game but because the industry's hopes are riding on it because they want this to be the future of gaming - hence Pachter's disappointment.

 

Maybe they'll have a better understanding now that review scores won't necessarily determine or influence retail performance.

I remember ZP's rant about how the videogame industry and videogamers lust to be like the movie industry in regards to cultural influence and mass appeal.  The Uncharted series play off this in a big way, and feeds right into it.  Uncharted, due to its nature, is hoped to be far more than just a really good videogame (even if it is derivative and familiar).  It has to be a game changer, that makes the masses take videogames more seriously as a means of storytelling.  The industry actually wants people who don't play, to watch Uncharted 2 being played and think it is a movie, like the way the PS3 ads show.



steverhcp02 on 14 December 2009
darthdevidem01 said:
psrock said:
darthdevidem01 said:
psrock said:
darthdevidem01 said:
CGI-Quality said:
So darth, buddy , are you saying that you don't believe that Uncharted 2 is at 1.98mill right now?

nope & on good old VGChartz thats called "hating" uncharted 2

 

Alright, let give the game is overtracked.

imagine it is 1.7million

1. the game hasnt been heavily bundled yet like the first one

2. Still selling close or above 100k a week.

We still get 2 million this year.

3. I do believe a lot of people who saved their cash to get MWF2 will pickup it later on.

4. Showing better legs than Uncharted......

1. I do not count bundles in my prediction as I can't assume they will happen

2. duh

3. I believe people saved their cash to get MWF2 & will pick up Assassins Creed 2 later on....both statements are anecdotal

4. Ofcourse it is in the holiday weeks, but one we get past the new year things won't be so rosy & for now we can assume it won't be bundled

Finally tell me how am I hating on the game?

It's going to be hilarious when it pass the first one early next year. You have been wrong about this game yet you refuse to let go, and to further the cause, questioning VGCHARTZ numbers which is maybe just 89k difference.

 

 

VGChartz has it at 881K for that period (from launch to week ending 28 November)

take away 81K (10% for canada_ & we get around 800K

NPD has it as 650K

so thats 150K (sic) overtracked possibly

so once again lets assume it get to 2 Million easily

After that it will have to sell around 800K to outsell Uncharted 1

to outsell it by "early 2010"...so thats the first 3 months it would need to sell 61K a week

Its actually closer to 140k than 150 since 10% is 88k not 81 k. And that could actually be closer, im not sure if regional differences can account for sales shifts, ioi could shed light on that, so a big game like this may see greater ratios in canada and mexico than normal.

And i see you put "150k possibly" we dont know if it even is overtracked or by how much

You still say youre "closer" somehow to LTD sales figures, after 6 weeks. Well duh youll be closer, a game starts at zero sales and goes up so anyone that predicts something more than you will be farther off until it sells more than your prediction.

 




Get Your Portable ID!

Alic0004 on 14 December 2009

Once again, 800k - 650k does NOT equal 250k

 

 

*edit*

oh good, he edited his post...



 

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psrock on 14 December 2009
CGI-Quality said:
Alic0004 said:

800K - 650k = 150k

the math they teach kids these days :P


I think the most remarkable thing about this thread is that we're using a Pachter quote to challange VGC's numbers.  Groundbreaking stuff.

Well, I agree with you there, he isn't exactly known as a gaming predictdion God like BHR-3 is

Seriously though, the game may very well be overtracked. I just think we need more absolute evidence before declaring Pachter's word as the final one.

The thing is even if it's overtarcked, it's not by that much. And I am sure adjustments will be made.

 



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11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
darthdevidem01 on 14 December 2009
steverhcp02 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
psrock said:
darthdevidem01 said:
psrock said:
darthdevidem01 said:
CGI-Quality said:
So darth, buddy , are you saying that you don't believe that Uncharted 2 is at 1.98mill right now?

nope & on good old VGChartz thats called "hating" uncharted 2

 

Alright, let give the game is overtracked.

imagine it is 1.7million

1. the game hasnt been heavily bundled yet like the first one

2. Still selling close or above 100k a week.

We still get 2 million this year.

3. I do believe a lot of people who saved their cash to get MWF2 will pickup it later on.

4. Showing better legs than Uncharted......

1. I do not count bundles in my prediction as I can't assume they will happen

2. duh

3. I believe people saved their cash to get MWF2 & will pick up Assassins Creed 2 later on....both statements are anecdotal

4. Ofcourse it is in the holiday weeks, but one we get past the new year things won't be so rosy & for now we can assume it won't be bundled

Finally tell me how am I hating on the game?

It's going to be hilarious when it pass the first one early next year. You have been wrong about this game yet you refuse to let go, and to further the cause, questioning VGCHARTZ numbers which is maybe just 89k difference.

 

 

VGChartz has it at 881K for that period (from launch to week ending 28 November)

take away 81K (10% for canada_ & we get around 800K

NPD has it as 650K

so thats 150K (sic) overtracked possibly

so once again lets assume it get to 2 Million easily

After that it will have to sell around 800K to outsell Uncharted 1

to outsell it by "early 2010"...so thats the first 3 months it would need to sell 61K a week

Its actually closer to 140k than 150 since 10% is 88k not 81 k. And that could actually be closer, im not sure if regional differences can account for sales shifts, ioi could shed light on that, so a big game like this may see greater ratios in canada and mexico than normal.

And i see you put "150k possibly" we dont know if it even is overtracked or by how much

You still say youre "closer" somehow to LTD sales figures, after 6 weeks. Well duh youll be closer, a game starts at zero sales and goes up so anyone that predicts something more than you will be farther off until it sells more than your prediction.

 

No I say I will be closer all said & done, I'm not saying I'm closer now

I'm saying I will be closer than they were when all is said & done

PSrock still hasn't answered my question....I'm waiting, how am I hating on uncharted 2



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Demotruk on 14 December 2009
richardhutnik said:

I remember ZP's rant about how the videogame industry and videogamers lust to be like the movie industry in regards to cultural influence and mass appeal.  The Uncharted series play off this in a big way, and feeds right into it.  Uncharted, due to its nature, is hoped to be far more than just a really good videogame (even if it is derivative and familiar).  It has to be a game changer, that makes the masses take videogames more seriously as a means of storytelling.  The industry actually wants people who don't play, to watch Uncharted 2 being played and think it is a movie, like the way the PS3 ads show.

Bingo.



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

Barozi on 14 December 2009
CGI-Quality said:
Barozi said:
CGI-Quality said:
Barozi said:
CGI-Quality said:
Barozi said:
Well yes for a GOTY it underperformed in the US, but I don't think he is aware of the European numbers.
It also will have nice legs.

How should it have performed? I never understand this "underperformed" talk. Underperformed compared to what?

Better. It's a shooter, one of the best reviewed games of all time, hyped..... just better.

 

When we look at NPD numbers, UC2 barely out performs Borderlands (360) in the US. Not that, what you would expect from a GOTY winner and sequel to a very good exclusive game.

No. It isn't a shooter in the eyes of those who buy it, it wasn't even marketed as a shooter. So, since you can't tell me what expectations actually matter here, outside of Naughty Dog, the answer is it "underperformed" by standards of people on VG Chartz gaming forum.

Naughty Dog expects  to just sell 2.5mill copies total. The game is well on it's way to pass that. It performed BETTER than they expected. That's what I'll go by.

A shooter is a shooter. If GTA didn't have any shooter elements almost no one would buy it.

If ND expected to win several GOTY awards and only sell 2.5m copies, then they clearly had too low expectations.

Valve surely didn't release the possibly best shooter of the century just to barely break even.

GTA nor Uncharted are shooters. There's shooting in them, but there are not known as shooters, period!

As for Naughty Dog, how do you know what breaking even is or not? We don't know that. Also, predicting 2.5mill is in line with what the first one has done. It was a realistic prediction. It just so happens that Uncharted 2 ended up being one of the greatest games this gen has seen.Naughty Dog, you, me, nor anyone else could have predicted that to happen, let alone it getting GOTY.

That is why it will shatter their expectations.

Neither is Gears of War. It's a post-apocalyptic, squad based exploration game with sporadic gunfights.



Slimebeast on 14 December 2009
CGI-Quality said:
Slimebeast said:
CGI-Quality said:
Slimebeast said:
CGI-Quality said:
Slimebeast said:
CGI-Quality said:
Barozi said:
Well yes for a GOTY it underperformed in the US, but I don't think he is aware of the European numbers.
It also will have nice legs.

How should it have performed? I never understand this "underperformed" talk. Underperformed compared to what?

Compared to expectations for a game who got 96% Meta, is in a mainstream genre, was hyped and is a sequel to a big seller & appraised new IP.

Explain those expectations, that matter. You mean Naughty Dog, who expected the game to reach 2.5mill and that's it? Yeah, those are the expectations that matter, not what any of us on a gaming forum think.

 

lol, our expectations don't matter, yet we dedicate several hours per week of our lives to discuss it all the time?

You are right that the sales exceeded ND's target, but maybe they didn't expect it to score as a high as 96% when they set that target? Also, some targets from devs are made in relation to dev budgets and not so much toward high-end potential sales.

You really think what we predict makes a difference? I mean really?

So, if I predicted the game would sell 10mill WW, and then it didn't, you think that matters where it makes a difference? I guess Halo 3: ODST is a total sales flop since it didn't perform as well as Halo 3, it was hyped, received good scores, was expected by some to sell like Halo 3, and is the Xbox Brand's biggest IP.

Like I said, that sounds ridiculous.

Makes a difference for whom? We represent ourselves, the gaming community. And in the eyes of the gaming community, not Naught Dog, and in the eyes of Patcher, and probably a lot of the gaming media too - Uncharted 2 underperformed.

Halo 3: ODST, no it didn't flop. But it slightly underperformed in relation to expecations by analysts and the gaming community such as VGC and others.

Btw, Bioshock also underperformed (that one was even hinted at by Take-Two, not that Take-Two themselves maybe expected bigger sales, but the media did, after the rave reviews had just come out).

Mass effect also underperformed. It had huge hype, great reviews but a comparatively bad opening week.

Agreed to disagree, what we think doesn't matter in the real world. This is why people say online hype =/= real world hype. If it did, MANY games would perform MUCH better.

Fact remains, Uncharted 2 is performing better than the devs expected, and received much praise when all they were hoping for was something fun for PS3 fans to enjoy. The game has done it's work, doesn't matter what the rest of us think.

Your feelings on Mass Effect, Bioshock & ODST are your opinion too, as are mine, nothing absolute there.

Yeah we really disagree because I think it's totally the other way around - whether a game underperforms, is a sucess or flop are things determined by the public - the media, the analysts and the consumers first and foremost. Seldom do I care what the devs expected from sales of a game, I discuss and analyze sales from a public perspective.