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What are your 2010 HDs hardware projections?

I've been reading alot of comments and internet buzz about "oh the 360 still in 2nd, the gap is still big at around 6mill it's going to be hard for the PS3 to gain ground, Natal this Reach that Wake this Splinter Cell that."  Ive been doing some mathematical equations and came up with the following projections note these are my believes on how things will look next year.

2008 total console sales

PS3 9.8mill

360 10.7mill

2008 total console sales from Jan to Sept

PS3 5,473,555

360 4,400,789

diff 1,072,766 ps3 favor

2009 total console sales BHR-3 estimates

PS3 12.1mill

360 9.9mill

the gap may be down to 5-5.5mill before 2010 even starts

2009 total console sales from Jan to Sept

PS3 4,317,353

360 4,653,499

diff only 336,146 360 favor why couldnt of done 1mill like PS3 did in 08?

2010 total console sales projections

PS3 14-16mill

360 9-10mill

total diff around 5mill

PS2 data

GT3 and FF10 release year HW total sales 16mill year previous 5.6

GT4 release year HW total sales 18.5mill year previous 16.5

Grip tight it should be evident what will happen to PS3 sales next year

Now what we can learn from this info is that PS3 will clearly ride the wave of momentum going into 2010 like it did in 08 outselling the 360 by over 1mill.  In 08 PS3 was able to outsell the 360 from Jan-Sep by a mill with no real SW and being priced at 399$ this year PS3 will see momentum from FF13 japans release, GOW3, and even more momentum from GT5s Japans release also dont forget the Wand releases in this period aswell all with a 299$ price piont. 

As for the 360 it should be obvious that its HW sales will be down quite alot Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009 since it will not have the same momentum it did in 2009 thus having my total 2010 numbers 9-10mill is very forgiving because thats around what it will do this year.  A price cut in this period is historicity unlikely because no console this gen cut its price at this time, well only the 360 in EU back in early 08 but it did very little b/c the PS3 was still able to outsell it in total others weekly even after its price cut and then the 360 raised it back up.  The only reason i have its HW numbers that high is incase something happens late 2010 with Natal bundle/price cuts 8-9mill is possible.

I believe in this period PS3 will be able to outsell the 360 not by only 1m like it did in 08 but by over 1m or even more. Thus putting the gap to around 3.5-4.5m before the holiday season even starts, now i wont go into what will happen after Sep 2010 b/c its all unknown weather 360s Natal will do anything for HW and who will win the holiday price cut war. 

I feel though that next holiday season will be a tight race between the PS3 and 360 i believe 360 will cut there prices and PS3 may not but fear not i believe GT5 will be released next holiday season for EU and NA possibly bundled, also FF13V,  possibly Agent and Twisted Metal might be able to counter act 360s natal and or price cut making a tight sales battle like we had in 07.

Time to put your big boy pants on I want to know what you think the total HW sales for 2010 will be for the PS3 and 360?

Come up with some info dont just say 360 will sell this much and PS3 will sell this much especially for the 360s numbers if you think that the 360 will not be outsold by the PS3 from Jan to Sept by 2-3 mill then your going to need some data to prove this.

Cant really argue with your logic.

I wonder how many people you will have eating crow this time

Yees.
If you just compare software it should be pretty clear.
If you compare that Ps3 and Xbox 360 hardware at price view, Ps3 is much lower than in early 2009 compared to 360.
But in early 2009 Ps3 had pretty big boost at Japan...FF XIII should boost as much as Sf4,Res5,Yakuza 3 combined.

You've been right on a lot of crazy stuff.

Might be again.

@ carl well not alot once your known for something like that its kinda hard to get those posters to come back in your threads to debate with

dont u want to post some #s do u think 2-3mill make up from jan-sep is possible? or total 2010 make up to be close to or around 5mill?

I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

BHR will probably be right again.

I'm actually at a loss for how I think next year will pan out in the HD war, I'll have to see how the holiday season turns out first. More specifically; how it turns out in NA, which will be a good pointer to how things will fare ww next year.
Seeing the PS3 beating the 360 in NA on black friday lends me to believe that there is precious little MS can do at this point to maintain, let alone ever increase, their lead. NA is the 360's supreme region after all.

As for my predictions...

I expect PS3 to outsell 360 by a LOT all year.
GT5 will be the big system selling game next year, the numbers from Others will be amazing.

2-3 Million seems logical in the run up to September-November (or whenever the 360 cut/ Natal will be)
The question is, will Cut/Natal be able to pull back the gap made by PS3? And will PS3's big titles of late '10 keep momentum going?

GT5 releasing LATE 2010 in Others would be a good idea for sales, but a bad idea for fans. Will be interesting to see how they handle it.

My numbers (with Natal releasing November)

PS3 - 14 Million
360 - 11 Million