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Forums - Sales Discussion - First day sales Japan 12/3 (NSMBWii, PSP2 and Gundam vs Gundam Next)

Soriku said:

Oh yeah, in Others NSMBW sold about 300k first week but no one is calling it a flop. Some people really don't want the Wii to succeed in Japan it seems...

@outlaw

Try comparing the DS at the time when NSMB DS released and the Wii right now would you?

The point is the same. It kept selling as well as it did because the console userbase is greater than the PS2 and continues to grow. The Wii will never be that.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

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outlawauron said:
I don't understand why people are assuming that NSMB Wii is going to sell just like NSMB DS. The Wii is not, and never will be, the DS.


That is not really important since this game will be a huge seller even if it won´t have the legs of the DStitle. I agree that it won´t have the legs like NSMB in the long run (that´s almost impossible) but NSMBW will probably match it in the first month or two (it´s december after all remember?). That will be good enough since NSMBW most likely will sell at least 2 million in Japan during Dec and Jan. Lifetime it will most likely not come anywhere near the DSgame but it will still sell 2-3 million at a minimum, easily outselling FF13



outlawauron said:
Soriku said:

Oh yeah, in Others NSMBW sold about 300k first week but no one is calling it a flop. Some people really don't want the Wii to succeed in Japan it seems...

@outlaw

Try comparing the DS at the time when NSMB DS released and the Wii right now would you?

The point is the same. It kept selling as well as it did because the console userbase is greater than the PS2 and continues to grow. The Wii will never be that.

So, basicaly, we can not predict NSMBWii sales base on the DS, but you know, for sure, without question, that the Wii will never be a DS saleswise. Is that it?



     

 

Yes, I'm talking about Japan only. NSMB Wii selling 3 million would prove my point though. It's not about it flopping or selling badly, but let's not compare the DS and Wii when talking about Japan.

Also, it isn't the first 2D mario in 15 years. It's only been 4 since NSMB DS.

Lastly, legs aren't about a platform, but the type of game and appeal it has. RPGs, regardless of system or console, will be frontloaded. Pokemon would still sell gazillions on PSP, etc.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

Soriku said:
outlawauron said:
Yes, I'm talking about Japan only. NSMB Wii selling 3 million would prove my point though. It's not about it flopping or selling badly, but let's not compare the DS and Wii when talking about Japan.

Also, it isn't the first 2D mario in 15 years. It's only been 4 since NSMB DS.

Lastly, legs aren't about a platform, but the type of game and appeal it has. RPGs, regardless of system or console, will be frontloaded. Pokemon would still sell gazillions on PSP, etc.

OK, I'll agree then. But we're still largely talking about FW and not LTD, in which case pulling numbers similar to NSMB DS isn't impossible since some people are predicting something like 700k/750k first week or whatever...

I meant to say first 2D one on consoles in 15 years, my bad.

I don't think it's impossible at all for NSMB Wii to do a million in Japan. In fact, I think it's highly probable.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

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Looking back at Famitsu's expectations for the first week of NSMB Wii, it looks like they overestimated the numbers by a few hundred k's

(Wii) New Super Mario Bros. : 1,03-1,29M / 2,50M or more
(PS3) Final Fantasy XIII : 1,01-1,36M / 1,00-1,50M
(DS) Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks : 320-430k / 720-880k
(DS) Layton 4 : 300-400k / 540-690k
(PSP) Kingdom Hearts : 240-330k / 450-580k
(PSP) MS Gundam vs. Gundam Next Plus : 230-320k / 320-400k
(PSP) Phantasy Star Portable 2 : 200-260k / 270-350k
(Wii) Tales of Graces : 200-260k / 230-290k
(DS) Power Pro Pocket 12 : 130-180k / 230-290k
(PSP) Winning Eleven 2010 : 110-160k / 180-230k
(DS) Fushigi no Dungeon 4 : 100-140k / 100-130k
(PSP) Valkyria Chronicles 2 : 100-130k / 160-200k
(???) End of Eternity : 100-140k / 110-140k
(Wii) RE Darkside Chronicles : 100-130k / 180-230k
(PS3) Call of Duty MW2 : 90-130k / 140-170k



Currently playing on PS3: God of War III

Currently playing on Xbox360: Final Fantasy XIII

Currently playing on NDS: Chrono Trigger

^Those are first shipments not first week sales



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Seems 3-4 million is the upper limit of what a Wii game can sell in Japan.



ph4nt said:
Seems 3-4 million is the upper limit of what a Wii game can sell in Japan.

If Wii Sports can't break 4 mil, I really don't think any other Wii game can. not even DQX.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

That NSMBWII would sell good is no news. 

But there is one question how much Hardware sold NSMBWII. Will it push more Wiis then FF13 PS3s.

Just saw ZorroX was banned, all his postings were deleted to. So some threads make no sense now like this one I was actualy wondering why everyone quoted ZorroX but I didnt saw a single post from him. And there was this race 5Mn vs 10Mn know we are missing data for that thread. Like the people which betted for what.