wii and 360^^^^

It depends largely on the price points at the time of discontinuation. Sony realize that the longer they keep the PS2 out the better they do in a number of ways. First of all financially speaking the PS2 is the difference between manageable and flunking out of the VG market at the moment due to price drops early and often. But on top of that it gives the consumer the impression that sony supports its products for a very long time and makes them feel better about a PS3 investment. And the final thing is that it of course hurts Wii sales since the Wii is currently the option most similar to the PS2 in terms of price and in terms of the type of gamer. And what I mean by that is that people buying into the PS2 for the first time now aren't exactly bleeding edge gamers and thus they will appreciate the Wii's do more with less approach.

The 360 at the end of 2008 will have at the very most 23 million sold.

I know that people will bring up GTAIV, and even though it will move consoles, it's not going to push the 360 anywhere near 30 million, especially considering that it's also on the PS3. Gears Of War was a system seller, and at the end of 2006, the 360 had only sold around 8 million. Halo 3 is undoubtedly a system seller, and at the end of this year, 15 million 360's will be sold at the most. It takes more than just one game to drive sales completely off the chart. It takes a lot of titles that appeal to everyone to do this, and the 360 doesn't have this for next year, nor does it even have an exclusive title that's as big as Halo 3. With Halo 3, it will have sold 7-8 million units for the calendar year of 2007, so to suggest that it's going to much more than that without something that big is absurd. Not to mention that the 360 appeals almost exclusively to the core gamer and the hardcore gamer and not the general public and only sells moderately well in N. America while selling poorly in Europe and nothing Japan.

You need to think over your numbers a little more before posting. You claim that the 360 will be at 15m at best by the end of the year. Right now it's at 12.75m, leaving 2.25m to cover in Nov-Dec.

In 2006, the 360 moved roughly 3m units during that span. I think we can all agree that this year, it should improve on that number with Halo, Mass Effect, CoD, Assassin's Creed, Lost Odyssey, and a price cut across the board. That puts it at nearly 16m just if it duplicates last year's sales.

So far in 2007, the 360 has sold roughly 7.6m consoles. Add in 3m (which will almost surely be higher) and you come in at roughly 10.5-11m sold in 2007. You said that at best, the 360 would be at 23m sold on January 1st, 2008. So, after it has seen at least one more price cut, you expect the console to move about 30% less units than it did in 2007...

Care to rethink that statement?

The sheer lunacy in this thread is staggering. 60m Wiis? C'mon, it will sell well but ramping up that kind of production quickly is hard to do. It will continue to sell, but not to the tune of 40m consoles in one calendar year.

A little backhistory:

My view on Wii selling 60 million by end of 2008 came to me at the very same time I thought of the 20 million by the end of 2007 prediction which I brought to this forum in March.

People are not thinking about the flare-out. The 1st year things move a certain way and then the system begins to build on all the goodwill pushing sales even further with every subsequent year until the next gen starts.

I think I mentioned my 60 million here somewhere a few months ago. I need to look it up if I did post it here. I know that's been on my mind since the beginning of this year.

John Lucas

@JohnLucs,

Even I agree that there is a "flare-out" as you put it to come. But look over my production numbers and realize that its harder to do the second doubling than it is the first. Unless you can come up with some sort of reason to believe Nintendo can produce that many Wii's I don't know how seriously the prediction can be taken.

Edit: PS - I realize you don't care how seriously your predictions are taken, but the point still stands, they have to ship it or they can't sell it. 

A price cut would not help Nintendo sell more in this instance. It will increase the demand even further but as demand is already exceeding supply at the current price, it will only result in a bigger shortage. Decreasing price isn't going to produce more Wii's.

It's all economics.

Myopic game fixation is beginning to be a real problem on these forums. While you fixate on how many consoles Halo 3 has sold. You are ignoring what is right behind you. Wii sports has sold consumers on the Wii for almost twelve months running. Resistance and Motorstorm seem to be doing well by Sony. Great games sell consoles period, and they do so over the long haul. People will be buying 360s with Halo 3 in mind for months or even years. That game is not going to go away any more then Wii sports is going to vanish.

Do we seriously need to list off the generally accepted good games that consumers should buy a console for. Sorry but western RPG players are going to find Mass Effect very attractive. Platformer enthusiasts will have their eyes light up for Mario. Racing fans will fall in love with Gran Tourismo. The Grand Theft Auto fans are going to want the next installment.

What is really annoying about this particular fetish is that its used like a blunt instrument. Often obscuring the real issue, or the one that most matters. When the big launch is done and over with whats the library look like. When it comes to games that where the battle is won, and not to burst any bubbles but the 360 has a nice library. While you fixated on Halo 3 you might have missed a few good games. The same way that Zack and Wiki are probably going to be missed hidden behind Metroid, and the upcoming Mario launch.

I just had to get that off my chest getting kind of tired of the soft reasoning. Had I only had these forums for information. I might think a good game only comes out every other month. Thankfully I have other sources, and they told me Blue Dragon was a good game. I disagree its a very good game. More people should pick it up. I am not a fan of turn based RPGs, and I am having a blast. Just one of those good games thats not getting factored into the equation I suppose.

thank god for sain people /salute rocket pig