Wii at 35 million worldwide XBOX 360 at 29 million Jan 1st 2009

[rocketpig]

Lord N said:

 

The 360 at the end of 2008 will have at the very most 23 million sold.

I know that people will bring up GTAIV, and even though it will move consoles, it's not going to push the 360 anywhere near 30 million, especially considering that it's also on the PS3. Gears Of War was a system seller, and at the end of 2006, the 360 had only sold around 8 million. Halo 3 is undoubtedly a system seller, and at the end of this year, 15 million 360's will be sold at the most. It takes more than just one game to drive sales completely off the chart. It takes a lot of titles that appeal to everyone to do this, and the 360 doesn't have this for next year, nor does it even have an exclusive title that's as big as Halo 3. With Halo 3, it will have sold 7-8 million units for the calendar year of 2007, so to suggest that it's going to much more than that without something that big is absurd. Not to mention that the 360 appeals almost exclusively to the core gamer and the hardcore gamer and not the general public and only sells moderately well in N. America while selling poorly in Europe and nothing Japan.

You need to think over your numbers a little more before posting. You claim that the 360 will be at 15m at best by the end of the year. Right now it's at 12.75m, leaving 2.25m to cover in Nov-Dec.

In 2006, the 360 moved roughly 3m units during that span. I think we can all agree that this year, it should improve on that number with Halo, Mass Effect, CoD, Assassin's Creed, Lost Odyssey, and a price cut across the board. That puts it at nearly 16m just if it duplicates last year's sales.

So far in 2007, the 360 has sold roughly 7.6m consoles. Add in 3m (which will almost surely be higher) and you come in at roughly 10.5-11m sold in 2007. You said that at best, the 360 would be at 23m sold on January 1st, 2008. So, after it has seen at least one more price cut, you expect the console to move about 30% less units than it did in 2007...

Care to rethink that statement?

The sheer lunacy in this thread is staggering. 60m Wiis? C'mon, it will sell well but ramping up that kind of production quickly is hard to do. It will continue to sell, but not to the tune of 40m consoles in one calendar year.