I totally agree, only a blind fanboy would be dissilusioned enough to believe that NSMBW will outsell SuperMarioGalaxy in a single year. I mean sure I expect NSMBW to sell probubly about 10-11 million in its lifetime sales but I highly doubt it will out perform every home mario game since the SNES. I mean come on lifetime sales of SuperMario64 were only 11 mill.

Honestly some fanboys believing that NSMBW will outsell Galaxy, Sunshine , Mario64. Yes I know Super Mario World reached lifetime sales of over 20-million. Yes I know that NewSuperMarioBros:DS is nearing the 20-million mark too. However I highly doubt that NSMBW will sell more then NewSuperMarioBros:DS did in its first year.

It's just not going to happen. I am so sure of it that I was willing to bet my sig and avatar for 3-months. It won't happen!

Just a little point: i don't know where your numbers came from, but Mario Kart Wii is now over 18 millions, and not 15 millions... doesn't change anything important, but anyway...

Now, many people said Mario Kart Wii couldn't do better than Mario Kart DS, because it's a home console vs handheld thing: and guess what, it did, and it did it very fast, too...

Many people also said back in the days that Mario & Sonic wouldn't sell more than 2 or 3 million copies: people who said otherwise were mocked and treated like fools... 2 years after, look at the combined sales of the DS and Wii versions: not bad... not 10 millions each, but not bad...

My point: you can't be sure of anything with the blockbusters on Wii and DS... NSMBDS has already sold 18 millions, Mario Kart Wii as well, so the "potential userbase" for a good Mario game is now 20 millions...

Galaxy was a more limited success, but maybe the game looked too hard or too special, its not a "pick up and play" game as may be a Mario Kart or the 2D Marios...

So, NSMBWii will do between 10 millions and 20 millions in its lifetime, that's for sure... now, in one year only? I'd say between 8 millions and 15 millions, it depends on the hype, the promotion, the reviews, etc... but it should do quite well anyway, so: five millions more or five millions less, who cares with the exception of the Nintendo's shareholders?

angrypoolman said: vonboysp said: angrypoolman said: NightDragon83 said: Mario Kart Wii sold 15 milllion worldwide in less than a year... and you don't think that a multiplayer sequel to the classic namesake of which that game was based on won't even do at least 11 million, let alone BREAK MK Wii's first year worldwide sales?!? angrypoolman... you better stop huffing all that chlorine and shock! did you not read the original post? nsmb ds did not reach 15 million in less than a year. that is a rediculous statement. mario kart ds didn't sell 15 million in less than a year either, your point? i dare you to click this link and look for MK Wii. http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly.php?date=39908&console=&maker=&boxartz=1#

what are you talking about? i'm talking about the ds version.

NSMB DS.
sold 9.6 million in it's first year.
userbase at the beginning of that first year: approx 20 million
userbase after NSMB was 1 y.old: approx 44 million.

NSMBWii.
userbase at the beginning of it's first year: approx 57 million
userbase after it's 1 y.old: guesstimate of 80 million

 

 

Mario Kart DS.
sold 6 million in it's first year.
userbase at the beginning of that first year: approx 10 million
userbase after NSMB was 1 y.old: approx 30 million.

Mario Kart Wii.
sold 15 million in it's first year.
userbase at the beginning of it's first year: approx 25 million
userbase after it's 1 y.old: guesstimate of 49 million

 

MKWii sold 2.5 times that of MKDS for year 1.... it had approximately 1.5 to 2.5 times the userbase to help it.

NSMB Wii will have about 1.8 to 2.4 times the userbase advantage over NSMB DS.... so by those ratios NSMBWii should do a similar multiplier over NSMBDS ... which was 2.5 times.

Obviously it won't manage that, as it comes to a ludicrous 24 million for it's first year.... but it can easily manage 11 million, and has a good shot at beating MKWii's record, especially given it won't have shortages like Mario Kart Wii had in the first few months.

I wonder why 11 million is the divider here. Wouldn't 10 million be a better number?

Realistically, New Super Mario Bros. Wii will do at least 5 million first year. And that is if the game flops hard. Anything less than 5 million will be a megaflop, and mean the game won't have any legs (since it will most likely do at least 2 million in its first two weeks).

5-6 million = flop
7-8 million = good sales with some legs
9-10 million = success with good legs
11+ million = great success with awesome legs

Can it become a great success? I don't know. I hope so.

@Angrypoolman - I hope you realize that Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii and Wii Sports are the games that New Super Mario Bros. Wii should actually be compared against. If it fails to reach those games, it's a failiure. If it reaches or surpasses them, it's a success.

You put up a good argument, and I think your OP is very reasonable.

However, I wouldn't say it's off the table. I'm actually expecting NSMBWii to sell 11 million in less than a year. Also, I admire that you so openly state that you're prepared for the fact that you might be wrong and will admit it if so.

Will probably be a massive hit like Mario Kart... it's a game everyone will want.

68soul said: Just a little point: i don't know where your numbers came from, but Mario Kart Wii is now over 18 millions, and not 15 millions... doesn't change anything important, but anyway... Now, many people said Mario Kart Wii couldn't do better than Mario Kart DS, because it's a home console vs handheld thing: and guess what, it did, and it did it very fast, too... Many people also said back in the days that Mario & Sonic wouldn't sell more than 2 or 3 million copies: people who said otherwise were mocked and treated like fools... 2 years after, look at the combined sales of the DS and Wii versions: not bad... not 10 millions each, but not bad... My point: you can't be sure of anything with the blockbusters on Wii and DS... NSMBDS has already sold 18 millions, Mario Kart Wii as well, so the "potential userbase" for a good Mario game is now 20 millions... Galaxy was a more limited success, but maybe the game looked too hard or too special, its not a "pick up and play" game as may be a Mario Kart or the 2D Marios... So, NSMBWii will do between 10 millions and 20 millions in its lifetime, that's for sure... now, in one year only? I'd say between 8 millions and 15 millions, it depends on the hype, the promotion, the reviews, etc... but it should do quite well anyway, so: five millions more or five millions less, who cares with the exception of the Nintendo's shareholders?

these numbers are from april 2009. one year after mk Wii came out.

For some reason, my post didn't get posted. So, I won't bother retyping my main part, but rather just do the ioi part.

 

Look at this: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2784124

That is a post by ioi, and this is the vital part: End of 09: NSMBWii: 7.5m. Personally, I find that a bit high, but let's go by his numbers. To make 11 million, it would only need 3.5 million in 10 months, or 44 weeks. That's 79.5K/week. Mario Kart Wii, 81 weeks old, has only once gone below that number. One single time. Its average for 2009 so far is 125K. Wii Fit has averaged even higher.

I think that this is the only game this generation that has a chance of outselling Mario Kart Wii.

 

Joelcool7 said: I totally agree, only a blind fanboy would be dissilusioned enough to believe that NSMBW will outsell SuperMarioGalaxy in a single year.

lol.  It's going to outsell Galaxy in it's first 2 months if they can supply it.