Why New Super Mario Bros. Wii WILL NOT sell 11 million in less than a year.

[68soul]

Just a little point: i don't know where your numbers came from, but Mario Kart Wii is now over 18 millions, and not 15 millions... doesn't change anything important, but anyway...

Now, many people said Mario Kart Wii couldn't do better than Mario Kart DS, because it's a home console vs handheld thing: and guess what, it did, and it did it very fast, too...

Many people also said back in the days that Mario & Sonic wouldn't sell more than 2 or 3 million copies: people who said otherwise were mocked and treated like fools... 2 years after, look at the combined sales of the DS and Wii versions: not bad... not 10 millions each, but not bad...

My point: you can't be sure of anything with the blockbusters on Wii and DS... NSMBDS has already sold 18 millions, Mario Kart Wii as well, so the "potential userbase" for a good Mario game is now 20 millions...

Galaxy was a more limited success, but maybe the game looked too hard or too special, its not a "pick up and play" game as may be a Mario Kart or the 2D Marios...

So, NSMBWii will do between 10 millions and 20 millions in its lifetime, that's for sure... now, in one year only? I'd say between 8 millions and 15 millions, it depends on the hype, the promotion, the reviews, etc... but it should do quite well anyway, so: five millions more or five millions less, who cares with the exception of the Nintendo's shareholders?