NSMB DS.
sold 9.6 million in it's first year.
userbase at the beginning of that first year: approx 20 million
userbase after NSMB was 1 y.old: approx 44 million.
NSMBWii.
userbase at the beginning of it's first year: approx 57 million
userbase after it's 1 y.old: guesstimate of 80 million
Mario Kart DS.
sold 6 million in it's first year.
userbase at the beginning of that first year: approx 10 million
userbase after NSMB was 1 y.old: approx 30 million.
Mario Kart Wii.
sold 15 million in it's first year.
userbase at the beginning of it's first year: approx 25 million
userbase after it's 1 y.old: guesstimate of 49 million
MKWii sold 2.5 times that of MKDS for year 1.... it had approximately 1.5 to 2.5 times the userbase to help it.
NSMB Wii will have about 1.8 to 2.4 times the userbase advantage over NSMB DS.... so by those ratios NSMBWii should do a similar multiplier over NSMBDS ... which was 2.5 times.
Obviously it won't manage that, as it comes to a ludicrous 24 million for it's first year.... but it can easily manage 11 million, and has a good shot at beating MKWii's record, especially given it won't have shortages like Mario Kart Wii had in the first few months.
