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Forums - Sales - Pachter :Modern Warfare 2 will EXCEED $500 million in week 1!!

KungKras said:
^Still, there are FPS games that I think does multiplayer better than CoD.

And no dedicated servers will cripple the MP beyond rescue.

Such as? The dedicated servers only affects PC games, and most people (not Shio) would agree that the PC version is not as big as the console versions



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Munkeh111 said:
KungKras said:
^Still, there are FPS games that I think does multiplayer better than CoD.

And no dedicated servers will cripple the MP beyond rescue.

Such as? The dedicated servers only affects PC games, and most people (not Shio) would agree that the PC version is not as big as the console versions

Shio is the only person out there that believe CoD4 sold 10 millions units on the PC but Activision has been lying about it all this time and downplaying PC sales....



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

5 million is almost certain in week 1, so saying 5 million in whole of Q4 is just strange.

Re OP about movies: It all depends on your definition of week 1. If Pachter is talking the first 7 days, then I think one or 2 movies have done as good or better in their first 7 days on simultaneous worldwide release. If you are talking about from release until the end of the first weekend then you are right, no movie has ever done $500 million in that timeframe. in fact none have done $400 million in that timeframe.

$500 million at an average worldwide sale price of $70 USD (is that a reasonable price average?) = 7.14 million copies sold. That's A LOT of game!!



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Munkeh111 said:
KungKras said:
^Still, there are FPS games that I think does multiplayer better than CoD.

And no dedicated servers will cripple the MP beyond rescue.

Such as? The dedicated servers only affects PC games, and most people (not Shio) would agree that the PC version is not as big as the console versions

Such as Battlefield.

big war FPS >>>> Small Action FPS.

And even Counterstrike is superior to CoD in certain aspects.

CoD may be a console series now, but even if the multiplayer is good, if it's too similar to CoD4, why upgrade?



I LOVE ICELAND!

this time Pachter might be 100% spot on with this. MW2 might manage this considering its MW2.



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binary solo said:
5 million is almost certain in week 1, so saying 5 million in whole of Q4 is just strange.

Re OP about movies: It all depends on your definition of week 1. If Pachter is talking the first 7 days, then I think one or 2 movies have done as good or better in their first 7 days on simultaneous worldwide release. If you are talking about from release until the end of the first weekend then you are right, no movie has ever done $500 million in that timeframe. in fact none have done $400 million in that timeframe.

$500 million at an average worldwide sale price of $70 USD (is that a reasonable price average?) = 7.14 million copies sold. That's A LOT of game!!

Actually I'm pretty sure no movie with a worldwide release has ever done 500 million$ in 7 days.

 

Only 2 movies have done 200 million$+ in the US in 7 days and those didn't do that great in the rest of the world ( Dark Knight and Transformers 2, both did under 450 millions$ lifetime out of the US)

 

Most likely the most worldwide revenue in a 7 days period is either the last Potter , Lord of The Rings Return of the Kings or Pirates of the Caraibs : Dead Man's chest.

Neither of those did more than 500 millions, it's hard to get exact numbers as you usually don't find first 7 days foreign revenue...( Dead man's Chest might actually have hit 500 millions or come really close).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

It won't but deserves those numbers.



 

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Ail said:
binary solo said:
5 million is almost certain in week 1, so saying 5 million in whole of Q4 is just strange.

Re OP about movies: It all depends on your definition of week 1. If Pachter is talking the first 7 days, then I think one or 2 movies have done as good or better in their first 7 days on simultaneous worldwide release. If you are talking about from release until the end of the first weekend then you are right, no movie has ever done $500 million in that timeframe. in fact none have done $400 million in that timeframe.

$500 million at an average worldwide sale price of $70 USD (is that a reasonable price average?) = 7.14 million copies sold. That's A LOT of game!!

Actually I'm pretty sure no movie with a worldwide release has ever done 500 million$ in 7 days.

 

Only 2 movies have done 200 million$+ in the US in 7 days and those didn't do that great in the rest of the world ( Dark Knight and Transformers 2, both did under 450 millions$ lifetime out of the US)

 

Most likely the most worldwide revenue in a 7 days period is either the last Potter , Lord of The Rings Return of the Kings or Pirates of the Caraibs : Dead Man's chest.

Neither of those did more than 500 millions, it's hard to get exact numbers as you usually don't find first 7 days foreign revenue...( Dead man's Chest might actually have hit 500 millions or come really close).

I think you're right. Potter 6 did $394 million in it's first 5 days world wide (best ever for a movie). In the last 2 days of the week in the US it improved its US box office takings by 12%. It's reasonable to assume about the same for the rest of the world. Meaning total 7 day wordlwide gross was likely somewhere under $450 million. No other Movie comes close.

Still >7 million units of MW2 in 7 days is going to be a pretty tall order. It'll have to be in the order of 6.5 million by the time shops close on the first Sunday to get to that magic 7 million+ / $500 million figure.

Pachter is reaching, but not ridiculously so, >$400 million in the first 7 days is all but guaranteed. What were IW's development costs I wonder? $50 million? Production, distribution and marketing? $100 million? That's plenty of green left over for pocket money. CoD5 could be a complete flop and they will still be in positive territory.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Good for me, hahahah. Thanks for the money first week buyers!



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binary solo said:
Ail said:
binary solo said:
5 million is almost certain in week 1, so saying 5 million in whole of Q4 is just strange.

Re OP about movies: It all depends on your definition of week 1. If Pachter is talking the first 7 days, then I think one or 2 movies have done as good or better in their first 7 days on simultaneous worldwide release. If you are talking about from release until the end of the first weekend then you are right, no movie has ever done $500 million in that timeframe. in fact none have done $400 million in that timeframe.

$500 million at an average worldwide sale price of $70 USD (is that a reasonable price average?) = 7.14 million copies sold. That's A LOT of game!!

Actually I'm pretty sure no movie with a worldwide release has ever done 500 million$ in 7 days.

 

Only 2 movies have done 200 million$+ in the US in 7 days and those didn't do that great in the rest of the world ( Dark Knight and Transformers 2, both did under 450 millions$ lifetime out of the US)

 

Most likely the most worldwide revenue in a 7 days period is either the last Potter , Lord of The Rings Return of the Kings or Pirates of the Caraibs : Dead Man's chest.

Neither of those did more than 500 millions, it's hard to get exact numbers as you usually don't find first 7 days foreign revenue...( Dead man's Chest might actually have hit 500 millions or come really close).

I think you're right. Potter 6 did $394 million in it's first 5 days world wide (best ever for a movie). In the last 2 days of the week in the US it improved its US box office takings by 12%. It's reasonable to assume about the same for the rest of the world. Meaning total 7 day wordlwide gross was likely somewhere under $450 million. No other Movie comes close.

Still >7 million units of MW2 in 7 days is going to be a pretty tall order. It'll have to be in the order of 6.5 million by the time shops close on the first Sunday to get to that magic 7 million+ / $500 million figure.

Pachter is reaching, but not ridiculously so, >$400 million in the first 7 days is all but guaranteed. What were IW's development costs I wonder? $50 million? Production, distribution and marketing? $100 million? That's plenty of green left over for pocket money. CoD5 could be a complete flop and they will still be in positive territory.

They will make a boatload but not that much.

Lets say the revenue is 400 million$ for the first 7 days, a third of that will be revenue in the retailer's pockets or so...

Add the licencing fees to MSFT and PS3 and the average expectation is on a 60$ title Activision takes in 30$ or so which is 50%...

 



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !