Pachter :Modern Warfare 2 will EXCEED $500 million in week 1!!

[Ail]

binary solo said:

Ail said:

binary solo said:
5 million is almost certain in week 1, so saying 5 million in whole of Q4 is just strange.

Re OP about movies: It all depends on your definition of week 1. If Pachter is talking the first 7 days, then I think one or 2 movies have done as good or better in their first 7 days on simultaneous worldwide release. If you are talking about from release until the end of the first weekend then you are right, no movie has ever done $500 million in that timeframe. in fact none have done $400 million in that timeframe.

$500 million at an average worldwide sale price of $70 USD (is that a reasonable price average?) = 7.14 million copies sold. That's A LOT of game!!

Actually I'm pretty sure no movie with a worldwide release has ever done 500 million$ in 7 days.

 

Only 2 movies have done 200 million$+ in the US in 7 days and those didn't do that great in the rest of the world ( Dark Knight and Transformers 2, both did under 450 millions$ lifetime out of the US)

 

Most likely the most worldwide revenue in a 7 days period is either the last Potter , Lord of The Rings Return of the Kings or Pirates of the Caraibs : Dead Man's chest.

Neither of those did more than 500 millions, it's hard to get exact numbers as you usually don't find first 7 days foreign revenue...( Dead man's Chest might actually have hit 500 millions or come really close).

I think you're right. Potter 6 did $394 million in it's first 5 days world wide (best ever for a movie). In the last 2 days of the week in the US it improved its US box office takings by 12%. It's reasonable to assume about the same for the rest of the world. Meaning total 7 day wordlwide gross was likely somewhere under $450 million. No other Movie comes close.

Still >7 million units of MW2 in 7 days is going to be a pretty tall order. It'll have to be in the order of 6.5 million by the time shops close on the first Sunday to get to that magic 7 million+ / $500 million figure.

Pachter is reaching, but not ridiculously so, >$400 million in the first 7 days is all but guaranteed. What were IW's development costs I wonder? $50 million? Production, distribution and marketing? $100 million? That's plenty of green left over for pocket money. CoD5 could be a complete flop and they will still be in positive territory.

They will make a boatload but not that much.

Lets say the revenue is 400 million$ for the first 7 days, a third of that will be revenue in the retailer's pockets or so...

Add the licencing fees to MSFT and PS3 and the average expectation is on a 60$ title Activision takes in 30$ or so which is 50%...