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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - When do you think Nintendo will release the DS true sucessor?

dtewi on 31 October 2009

Heh. Look at people thinking the lifespan of DS is only going to be 7 or 8 years.

It will be at least a decade, probably more.

At least 2015.



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

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Soundwave on 31 October 2009

Who says the old DS can't exist for a few more years yet?

The PS2 is still being sold, and this is year 9.

They can continue to sell the current Wii and DS both for a few more years even if they release higher-end options for those who want that.

If Nintendo doesn't offer that option then Apple and Sony and Microsoft will and Nintendo will lose those who want something new. So they can make a choice to either offer that, or get out of the way and let those other companies take chunks of their audience basically without any resistance. 

Not everyone just bought a DSi this year. A lot of people last bought a DS in 2005 or 2006 ... and in the next year or two are likely to want something new (not just a revision for grandpa). And if Apple or Sony or someone else is going to offer that whereas Nintendo isn't, then quite frankly they deserve to lose that business. 



LordTheNightKnight on 31 October 2009
dtewi said:
Heh. Look at people thinking the lifespan of DS is only going to be 7 or 8 years.

It will be at least a decade, probably more.

At least 2015.

Successors are not system lifetime. Of course the DS would be around with the successor, and sell well into that time.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

Avinash_Tyagi on 31 October 2009
Soundwave said:
2013/14 is pretty ridiculous considering they're releasing more hardware revisions now.

I think they are actually testing the market to get them used to having more and more iterations, just like the iPod.

By the end of 2011 I believe both the successors to the current DS and Wii will both be on the market.

No that would be a bad idea, you don't want both pillars out at once, because that risks cannibalizing your sales

 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 31 October 2009
Soundwave said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
When they have another system ready, they will make the successor. They likely would want something worth having a new system over instead of just stronger specs.

I would bet they have both the Wii 2 and DS 2 complete already hardware wise pretty much more or less.

 


Vitality sensor says no

 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Soundwave on 31 October 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Soundwave said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
When they have another system ready, they will make the successor. They likely would want something worth having a new system over instead of just stronger specs.

I would bet they have both the Wii 2 and DS 2 complete already hardware wise pretty much more or less.

 

Vitality sensor says no

What exactly does the vitality sensor have to do with it? 

They can only work on the vitality sensor and have to pause development on Wii 2 and DS 2 in the mean time? 

Who the hell even knows if the vitality sensor thing will even take off. Wii Music sure as hell did not, and I don't think an accessorie would've helped much because people just didn't enjoy the core concept to begin with. 

Even Wii Motion Plus ... probably debatable how much that's actually helped sales. Wii Sports Resort seems to be selling mostly to people who already own the Wii rather than bringing in a huge surge of new players. 



Rath on 31 October 2009

2014 is my guess. Traditionally handhelds haven't followed the console generation cycles that closely.



Soundwave on 31 October 2009

GBC - 1998
GBA - 2001
GBA SP - 2002
DS- 2004
GBA Micro - 2005
DS Lite - 2006
DSi - 2008/09
DSi XL - 2009/10


Uh ... this doesn't look like the release schedule of a company waiting until 2013/14, guys and I think they've pretty much exhausted the DS revisions at this point.  

In the 10 years since the Game Boy Color, they've advanced two full generational cycles and thrown in several system redesigns (some quite significant) pretty much every other year at least.



Avinash_Tyagi on 31 October 2009
Soundwave said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Soundwave said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
When they have another system ready, they will make the successor. They likely would want something worth having a new system over instead of just stronger specs.

I would bet they have both the Wii 2 and DS 2 complete already hardware wise pretty much more or less.

 

Vitality sensor says no

What exactly does the vitality sensor have to do with it? 

They can only work on the vitality sensor and have to pause development on Wii 2 and DS 2 in the mean time? 

Who the hell even knows if the vitality sensor thing will even take off. Wii Music sure as hell did not, and I don't think an accessorie would've helped much because people just didn't enjoy the core concept to begin with. 

Even Wii Motion Plus ... probably debatable how much that's actually helped sales. Wii Sports Resort seems to be selling mostly to people who already own the Wii rather than bringing in a huge surge of new players. 


Do you really think they would finalize the hardware before finding out whether the Vitality sensor is a success? If they want to incorporate it on the next system, they will have to wait to see how its received first, hence why the next system hardware is not finalized

 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

O-D-C on 31 October 2009

2012-2013 along with Wii 2