ps3 8 mil by dec 31

Looks pretty solid. I still think Thanksgiving is bigger than what you give it credit for - but like you say, it is only one territory.

Here is one interesting thing - I am listing all the "total" sales figures (per week) for the same time last year. This will give us some scaling factors that we can apply to each week. Its a little wierd though, with the Wii/PS3 releases - and stock shortages. Still - its a guide:

--- Worldwide all-format sales ---

22nd October 2006 - 470,503

29nd October 2006 - 591,000

6th November 2006 - 656,000

13th November 2006 - 943,000

19th November 2006 - 1,224,000

26th November 2006 - 1,959,000

3rd December 2006 - 2,153,000

10th December 2006 - 2,824,000

17th December 2006 - 3,019,000

24th December 2006 - 3,550,000

31th December 2006 - 1,451,000

...

Normalised all against the first weeks sales:

22nd October 2006 - 1.00

29nd October 2006 - 1.25

6th November 2006 - 1.39

13th November 2006 - 2.01

19th November 2006 - 2.60

26th November 2006 - 4.16

3rd December 2006 - 4.58

10th December 2006 - 6.01

17th December 2006 - 6.43

24th December 2006 - 7.55

31th December 2006 - 3.09

If I apply these ratios to the same figures I started with... (note that I think the final week this year will be much bigger, as it includes Xmas Eve - rather than just missing it like last year... I think).

Week#1: 190k (base figure)
Week#2: 240k
Week#3: 264k
Week#4: 382k
Week#5: 494k
Week#6: 790k
Week#7: 870k
Week#8: 1141k
Week#9: 1221k
Week#10: 1434k

(week#11:  590k)

...

Now this doesn't really align well with this year, but it does give us a rough idea - based on "real world" figures.

The grand total is: 7,616k (i.e. 7.6m)

(and flowing into the start of '08 by around a week)

Add this to the existing 12.69m --> 20.3m (which would be a REAL achievement is possible). This is probably unrealistic purely because of supply constraints.

...

The overall multiplier comes to 40.1. Once we get a "reasonable" weekly figure for the PS3/360, we can scale those figures as well.

Say the PS3 is around 90k, and you get around half the Wii sell-through (around 3.8m), which would be an excellent result for Sony - taking the install base to around 9m by the end of te year (I still predict closer to 8m).

The 360 is a little harder to predict - but it may end up in the middle, say around 130k for a "base" week. Total sales then become 5.2m for the rest of the year - taking the install base to around 17.5m. This would be an excellent result for MS as well. I (as are most people?) am still predicting closer to 15m-16m.

At a base figure of 100k, it comes to closer to 4.1m - and a end of year install base around 16m.

...

It should be interesting to see how the coming weeks compare to those from last year, and where the 360/PS3 end up at (given that the Wii will be supply constrained, and less interesting). 

Shams, like you said, that was skewed by the release of two new consoles, and even then the week after thanksgiving was a decent increase.

And it's difficult to apply such a scaling factor to a console destined to be supply constrained, the numbers you finished with might be more representative of the Wii demand.

And yes the final week that extends after christmas does include christmas eve, (and due to the irritatingly skewed week endings, the 23rd for America too) but that is only one day, which is why i don't think that will be the biggest week of the year but more on par with the week ending 15th/16th.
The 24th may be THE biggest day, but the week ending 23rd has 7 of the next greatest days.

Ok will post my predictions in 5 min

I feel

WII - 18.3 Million

Xbox 360 - 15 Million

Playstation 3 - 8.5 Million

 There i took a print screen of the PS2/GC/X-Box fight (not much of a fight) for christmas 2005, where the highest week was the week ending the 25th (so including 24th/23rd/22nd etc) and that week is not much of a significant increase over the previous week, which shows the 24th, even when it is a saturday (this year a monday) doesn't have enough of a significant pull on it's own....so it wouldn't be able to pull this years week ending 30th dec above the 23rd.
i drew on an orange line to show what the Wii might do with a supply of about 5 million (similar to what PS2 did that year) It keeps the dgradient going up to the last week because the weeks are set back by 2 days, but because the 24th is included in that last week it is much higher afterwards than PS2 was.

I think it could be higher overall than that though because i think a supply of 6 million is more probable.

oh. p.s. You can see the effect that thanksgiving had on the week ending 11/27/05 (i hate writing the month before the day)...it caused a bump in the gradient similar the the one the 360 had last year, but nothing significant enough to cause the week after to be anything near similar sales.

edit; it cut the last bit off so i resized it slightly.

WorldWide sales

October
PS3:0.25million
Wii:0.46million
X360:0.42million

November
PS3:0.50million
Wii:1.00million
X360:0.50million

December
PS3:2.40million
Wii:3.50million
X360:2.00million

TOTALS
PS3:3.15million
Wii:4.92million
X360:2.92million

WorldWide Sales by December 31st 2007
PS3:8.00million
Wii:17.00million
X360:14.42million

I added the TOTALS to WW Totals of September 29th 2007 because otherwise i would be counting the first 2 weeks of October twice.

I will NOT be changing my predictions in my sig to match the guesses i just made.

Sarcasm... Right?!...... RIGHT?!

@Starcraftmaniac

NOT in EU n JAP...dude