If I apply these ratios to the same figures I started with... (note that I think the final week this year will be much bigger, as it includes Xmas Eve - rather than just missing it like last year... I think).
Week#1: 190k (base figure)
Week#2: 240k
Week#3: 264k
Week#4: 382k
Week#5: 494k
Week#6: 790k
Week#7: 870k
Week#8: 1141k
Week#9: 1221k
Week#10: 1434k
(week#11: 590k)
...
Now this doesn't really align well with this year, but it does give us a rough idea - based on "real world" figures.
The grand total is: 7,616k (i.e. 7.6m)
(and flowing into the start of '08 by around a week)
Add this to the existing 12.69m --> 20.3m (which would be a REAL achievement is possible). This is probably unrealistic purely because of supply constraints.
...
The overall multiplier comes to 40.1. Once we get a "reasonable" weekly figure for the PS3/360, we can scale those figures as well.
Say the PS3 is around 90k, and you get around half the Wii sell-through (around 3.8m), which would be an excellent result for Sony - taking the install base to around 9m by the end of te year (I still predict closer to 8m).
The 360 is a little harder to predict - but it may end up in the middle, say around 130k for a "base" week. Total sales then become 5.2m for the rest of the year - taking the install base to around 17.5m. This would be an excellent result for MS as well. I (as are most people?) am still predicting closer to 15m-16m.
At a base figure of 100k, it comes to closer to 4.1m - and a end of year install base around 16m.
...
It should be interesting to see how the coming weeks compare to those from last year, and where the 360/PS3 end up at (given that the Wii will be supply constrained, and less interesting).
Gesta Non Verba
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