NSMB already has more preorders in America than Muramasa has sold worldwide. Muramasa is a niche game by every definition, mario is MARIO. Come on, An empty case with Mario on it would sell a million copies.

Saying Mario isn't for hardcore gamers is like saying Ridge Racer is a game your mom can play.

Haha. Those are pretty much contradictory. Word of mouth can be good or bad, and it comes from customers, not from marketers at companies.

You understand that in the term "word-of-mouth marketing," "word-of-mouth" is being used as a modifier; as in, "marketing designed to generate good word-of-mouth." Word of mouth itself is a different thing.

Anyways, right now Nintendo is hyping NSMBW to generate awareness and excitement. But you can have awareness and excitement and never have a product. And once you launch a product, you can't control what people say about it. If people don't like the game once they play it, sales can fall off quickly, ie a highly hyped game can have bad word of mouth once released.

I guess the point being, that simply having a lot of hype doesn't mean the game will fail. Because of the gap between the AAA Nintendo products and the crappy and/or niche games third parties put on the console, there have been a lot of B games on Wii which were hyped up. Then when they are mediocre or niche, they have bad word of mouth, and end up with bad lifetime sales. So the problem is not that the game was highly hyped, it is that it is a bad game or a niche game with too-big expectations. NSMBW is certainly not a niche game, and if it is a ton of fun, then it will generate good word of mouth, and have long tail sales.

Not quite.  Like most Nintendo games, Mario is a game anyone can enjoy.  In other words, its a game made for 'all audiences', not just a 'casual' or 'hardcore' audience.

Ridge Racer is not the polar opposite of Mario, as it targets a very specific market (simulation racing fans).  There really isn't any polar opposite to Mario because it hits nearly every age group and is popular with nearly everyone.

Iwata said this will sell 10 million by the end of March. Even if it doesn't sell as much as the DS Mario Bros (and I see no reason why NSMBWii can't outsell it), it won't bomb.

I can't wait for this game.

If you are regularly dying more than eight times in a stage then perhaps you need some babying or at least the option to be babied.

I know there are some fairly big expectations for the sales of this game but to say that it would be a flop at 10 million sales is going a little far.  Having said that I think 10 million will be a piece of cake considering Wii Sports is already passed 5 and it was released at just about the slowest time of the year.

@yushire

Nah no harm in hype, just so long as the game is awesome, the opposite tho would be bad, great game but no hype, hype = free advertising.

another question will casuals buy this game? anyway i'll make a seperate thread about this but what you think of it?

Different games have different goals. The goal of this game is to be a primary driver of hardware sales for holiday 2009 and much of 2010. Being 20% bigger than Mario Galaxy does not accomplish that goal.

In the past, every major 2D Mario platformer (ignoring the botched worldwide strategy for SMB2) has sold well beyond 10 million copies. And most of those were launching without the benefit of a developed European market. Now that Europe is established as a gaming market and NSMB DS has warmed them up to 2D Mario, for this game to only reach 10 million in lifetime sales would qualify it as a flop.

No game selling 10 Million is a flop.  That's like saying games like Halo 3 and GTAIV were flops because they only sold around 10 Million.  10 Million is a pinnacle of sales only a small fraction of games reach.  Just because certain games Nintendo has made has gone beyond that doesn't mean every game will.  And if they don't, it doesn't mean they're a 'flop'.  If anything, the monumental sales for New Super Mario bros on DS are beyond anyones expecations and so demanding New Super Mario Bros Wii to do as good or BETTER than the DS game or deeming it a flop is just an unfair judgement.