Well my predictions are .
Here in Europe the X360 is selling very poorly excepting maybe UK (and even there nothing impressive ) .The PS2 is outselling it by 4 and 5 times and they have only managed a installed base of 1,75 million consoles in one year and 2 months .Wii will have a great success but limited first to the Nintendo fans ,later if it can attract the casuals as Nintendo wishes it can expand its market ...even so with so feeble software until december (when mario ,metroid etc finally get to the stores ) I doubt it will carve right now a very big place for it in the industry .PS3 is the console everyones is waiting for .It has a lot of people badmouthing it in the forums but lest face it ...those are 0,5% of the gamers out there .It will have some problems selling at that high pricepoint but the expectation is very high and we have had a lot of time to put apart money to buy it .I think it will make a good splash .My numbers for Europe are ..
PS3 :As many as they ship to stores .I would bet to some 400-500 000 for launch and then some 5 millions untils 31 december .It should end the year around 5-5.5 million units .
X360 :I think it will sell about the same as this year .Its greater game catalogue and solidity as plattform compared to the year prior would ultimately make it grow something but this year compared to last year they will have competition .I think they wont go very far from 1,7-2 million consoles .
Wii;A tough call .The launch effect and the loyal nintendo fans usually starts to wane a bit about 5-6 months after launch ,and the software doesnt seem that promising .On the other hand they could make "a DS " and attract many people not previously attached with this industry .If things go after normal patterns I would opt for some 3,5 millions sold for a total of 4 million of user base .
USA .Here is the stronghold of the X360 ,but they have barely managed to sell some 5% more consoles that the original Xbox .Not the numbers we would expect from a winner console ,thats for sure .Nintendo still has a good grab in the US .Sony would be in the weaker position but they still have a load of PS2 fans and some very good software due next year ,I think its potential to sell is greater than the X360 and Wii for now ...X360 is only attracting hardcore gamers that some months from now will have a good alternative and Wii well we dont know its sure the nintendo fans and some casuals will run for it but the software for next year looks a bit lame maybe they wont manage a great splash after all ....its really difficult to say .My numbers for USA are
X360 :About the same as this year ....3 million consoles .If the price drops it could go up to 4-5 million .Adding the nearly 5 million it will reach by this year end the total installed base will be some 8 million consoles .
PS3 ;I think it can reach 4 million consoles in the US in 2007 ....montly sales of 300 000 consoles and a good end of year would put it above that number but couning possible shortages I have cut down my estimations .Adding the million sold would put it around 5 million consoles .If they can produce more it will sell more ,but 5 million seems a fair bet .
Wii ;The Game Cube had a strong start but some 6 months later started to dilute its power ..I think Wii will do somewhat better but not by much ...not at least this year with all the killer apps scheduled by december (and the can even slip that date we should take in count ) ..giving the Cube sold some 2700 000 consoles on the first year I think the Wii will sell some 4 million units giving it the benefit of the doubt .
Japan ;Well here is really a two-man race .....the megahit japanese games that Microsoft have achieved are to count with a hand fingers and we have seen what they can do ...lift the console to some 35 000 sales in a week for a week or two .I think it will ultimately outsell the original Xbox but for the moment it is doing far worse .I thing next year they will sell some .....280 000 consoles ..more than double this year and counting that Lost Planet and Lost Oddysey provide the same appeal as BD ,something I remain a bit skeptic about specially for the first one .On the other hand teh Wii will benefit probably with the Ds effect and the refound love of Japan for Nintendo ....6 million sold I would say and only because the software wont be that hot this year .The PS3 is for the japanese the main and nearly only option if they want a game console with next generation graphics ,then theres all the people who want it as a cheap blu ray player ....I think they will sell about as many as they produce ....I doubt that providing the rest of the world they can send more than 85 000 consoles per week to Japan adn something more for christmas ....my numbers for the PS3 then are some 4.5 million consoles sold .
X360 :2 million consoles for a total of 3,7-4 millions userbase .
PS3 :5-5.5 million consoles for a total userbase of 5-5.5 million .
Wii ;3,5 million for a total usebase of 4 million consoles .
X360 ;3 million consoles for a total userbase of 8 million .Could go up to 10 million if they reduce the price but as it is 3 million for a total of 8 million .
PS3 ;4 million consoles for a total userbase of 5 million .They could reach more but I am cutting down the numbers because they may have hardware shortages .
Wii ;4 million units for a total userbase of 5 million .
X360 ;some 280 000 consoles for a total userbase of 0,5 million sold .
PS3 ;4,5 million sold for a total number of about 5-5.5 million consoles sold .
Wii ;some 6 million consoles sold for a total of 7 million sold .
Total numbers as 31 dec 2007 ;
X360 ;12,5 million sold ,maybe 14 if they drop the price .
PS3 ;15 million consoles sold ,maybe a bit more if they can produce more .
Wii ;some 16 million sold ....the software drain I expect(at least in quality ) could lower a bit these numbers but not much at worse 1 million or 1.5 million for a total of 14.5-15 .Sticking to the best numbers I would say 16 million .
So my predictions are that by 31 december the world userbase will be lead by Nintendo by a very short margin over PS3 ...X360 will still be there very close but already surpassed by Sony and Nintendo .