@trestres: Did you notice your contradiction?
The predicted amount of hardware sold relates to the issue so, that the production rate is made accordingly. Nintendo could lower the forecast easilly - belive me, it's no bigger deal than that. Their forecast is made based on their actions, not the opposite.
If you think that "missing the target" is a big deal, what would you think about, besides not having the profit from sold units, losing the money from manufactured not-sold units is? If Wii costs 50 to manufacture, a million not sold units stress the bottom line with 50 million. At the moment, Nintendo has approximately half a billion invested in the not sold Wiis in their warehouses and that is what they want to get rid of before the FY ends, since it's all doing nothing but pulling the income down.
Since sales forecast isn't the problem, it has to be somewhere else. You gave the lack of appealing software as a reason. If the lack of appealing software is the reason, shouldn't it be corrected by putting out appealing software? NSMBW is a no-brainer, the first entry of a 2D Mario on Wii, a sequel to a game that is closing 20 million sold units on DS. The point here is, that there haven't been single, platforms first entry, game released on any current gen home console that would be as big as NSMBW (judging by the sales of their predecessor). Keep in mind, 2D and 3D Mario platformers are two totally different things. Even if all Mario fans who own a Wii would've bought SMG, there would still be system sales potential worth of Halo 3 left, judging by NSMB sales.
Without the huge amount of money invested in their inventory, Nintendo would have nothing to worry about, all they had to do is build the momentum back by making new appealing software.